Since we know when Bitcoin will half, saying Bitcoin will go up is nuts!

[btcltccoins]

What I found interesting in the Op is question whether planned halving is better than randomized one, because you can't prepare for random occurrence of halving.
I thought a little about it and how about halving was implemented in a semi-random way. What I mean by it: it will be similar to how you can obtain legendary status here on BTT.

For example: what if halving could be happening between block 400.000 and 500.000 (hypothetical) instead of set block 420.000?

Your topic seems to contradict what you are saying. When you say bitcoin is going to half; I thought you were referring to the reward of finding a bitcoin block. Also Bitcoin doesn’t just randomly half; if you were referring to the mining reward; the halving happens after four years. If you were referring to the actual bitcoin, how will its actually make the price go up after it’s halved. Please rephrase yourself.

[zimmah]

OP is right. When an event is known by the market, it is already factored into the price.

(Example: If 12% was a reasonable annual return, and you knew the value of a stock would be $112/share in one year, and its current price was $50, you'd be a fool not to buy it. But if the $112 value was common knowledge, everyone else would be a fool not to buy it too. So everyone would instantly bid up the price of the stock to $100 today, in line with the 12% annual return to $112 in one year.)

The miners can't (significantly) control the price of bitcoin. All they can do is shut down if mining becomes unprofitable. But that has ZERO influence on the price of bitcoin, because exactly the same # of bitcoins are mined whether 100% or 1% of miners are up and running.

At the halving the daily input of new BTC will drop from ~3600 to ~1800. That is enough for a very modest upward pressure, but it will be slight because tens of thousands of coins are exchanged daily already. Other events and general market trends will dwarf the impact of the halving.

Feel free to prove me wrong, though.  

you can't price in less supply.

people can try to hoard the current supply in order to sell later, but the supply is still going to go down so the price will still rise assuming the demand stays the same.     

Maybe for a few weeks/months the actual supply might be the same or higher than it is now, because the people who hoarded will unleash their coins on the market, which will also count as supply, but since their coins are finite, at some point they will run out.

It's like knowing in advance that there will be a drought and grain will be in short supply. You can build a few grain silos and hoard grain to sell later when grain is in shortage and therefore expensive, but eventually you'll run out of grain to sell and there will still be people hungry. Even though you might have stored enough grain for a few months, you won't have enough for a full year, or even multiple years.

Short supply is short supply, and there's no way you can factor in reduced supply.

[katrimans]

If BTC were to randomly half out of no where - then yeah that would 100% make BTC price go up no doubt!
But since we know well ahead of time when it happens people already prepare.
Some people have already bought days, weeks and months ago in preparation - why do you think BTC has gone up like it did recently?
In that case the only reason BTC would rise significantly AFTER the halving would be from this created hype.
In any case, celebrate! HYPE THAT SHIT!

It's an interesting question, however, the price will have to go up to compensate the miners for their work.
If the price remains in the actual conditions, some miners will have to shut-down (of course, some of them if not the majority will continue), this could lead to longer confirmation times, if the problem escalates, we could see a death spiral where blocks take longer to confirm, XBT price plummets and mining becomes even less profitable.

I agree, we need to have the supply and demand to be corresponding well. If the demand will remain the same after the halving then we can expect the price of a bitcoin to rise gradually and this will certainly compensate the miners just like it did 4 years back. If this occurs just as planned, then those who invested in bitcoin will also profit and grab a cup of coffee to celebrate; hmm maybe a glass of quality wine

[ProfessionalGoogler]

If BTC were to randomly half out of no where - then yeah that would 100% make BTC price go up no doubt!
But since we know well ahead of time when it happens people already prepare.
Some people have already bought days, weeks and months ago in preparation - why do you think BTC has gone up like it did recently?
In that case the only reason BTC would rise significantly AFTER the halving would be from this created hype.
In any case, celebrate! HYPE THAT SHIT!

It's an interesting question, however, the price will have to go up to compensate the miners for their work.
If the price remains in the actual conditions, some miners will have to shut-down (of course, some of them if not the majority will continue), this could lead to longer confirmation times, if the problem escalates, we could see a death spiral where blocks take longer to confirm, XBT price plummets and mining becomes even less profitable.

I agree, we need to have the supply and demand to be corresponding well. If the demand will remain the same after the halving then we can expect the price of a bitcoin to rise gradually and this will certainly compensate the miners just like it did 4 years back. If this occurs just as planned, then those who invested in bitcoin will also profit and grab a cup of coffee to celebrate; hmm maybe a glass of quality wine

No, the price does not HAVE to go up, and again basically has already gone up in preparation.

Most of the "going up" has already been done.

[chesthing]

Demand now isn't different than the demand last year. The difference now is holding in anticipation of a halving pump. That is why the price has risen and held. Comparing bitcoin to a grain drought is a terrible analogy, people actually use and need grain on a mass level. Few give a fuck about bitcoin, and even those who do don't need it.

[jaredboice]

We already know there's only going to be 21 Million Bitcoins ever.  So why even distribute them?  Market has already priced in the bitcoins they haven't even bought yet and miners have already cost-averaged the millions of bitcoins that have yet to be mined for the next hundred years    

Perhaps we might as well price in an 8th of the planet already using bitcoin as well.  Let's go ahead and assume the market cap is already something like $10 Trillion.

I'll sell OP 1 Bitcoin for $400,000 and prove his point for him  

Sounds ridiculous?  well yeah, and it's about as ridiculous as the original post

[Herbert2020]

i think you should do more googling then post here!
knowing the halving will occur and knowing the time can affect the price and has affected the price already because of the hype but this doesn't change the fact that after the halving the number of new coins that are being created and dumped will be reduced (lower supply the same demand google this!)

[ProfessionalGoogler]

i think you should do more googling then post here!
knowing the halving will occur and knowing the time can affect the price and has affected the price already because of the hype but this doesn't change the fact that after the halving the number of new coins that are being created and dumped will be reduced (lower supply the same demand google this!)

Read again. 

[Kakmakr]

Even if we see a price increase, who is going to buy at these high prices? I would just wait for the price to drop and then buy. The people trading in Bitcoin, will buy and hoard before the anticipated event, and then dump. This will force the price down. I cannot see why we will have huge price increases to the levels where they were when Willy Bot was doing it's thing last time. ^smile^

If anything will happen, it might be just before the Halving and then I anticipate a price between $600 & $700 at most.

[Amph]

they said that it's already priced in the mining department, not absolutely, and it was the true when the diff was still low enough and the price went immediately to 500, the first time

in that case, yes was priced in, not anymore now, we are in the same situation as before, when the diff was lower and the price was 2xx

[ProfessionalGoogler]

Time will tell..

[Zaducis]

If BTC were to randomly half out of no where - then yeah that would 100% make BTC price go up no doubt!

But since we know well ahead of time when it happens people already prepare.

Some people have already bought days, weeks and months ago in preparation - why do you think BTC has gone up like it did recently?

In that case the only reason BTC would rise significantly AFTER the halving would be from this created hype.

In any case, celebrate! HYPE THAT SHIT!

It is the hype that surrounds halving which is expected to push up prices.Halving will get lots of media attention too and that brings more people to bitcoin.This sudden interest in bitcoin also increase its price and hence it's price

The halving will not get media attention as much as the price rise. We need price rise before halving.

[FruitBucket]

If BTC were to randomly half out of no where - then yeah that would 100% make BTC price go up no doubt!

But since we know well ahead of time when it happens people already prepare.

Some people have already bought days, weeks and months ago in preparation - why do you think BTC has gone up like it did recently?

In that case the only reason BTC would rise significantly AFTER the halving would be from this created hype.

In any case, celebrate! HYPE THAT SHIT!

It is the hype that surrounds halving which is expected to push up prices.Halving will get lots of media attention too and that brings more people to bitcoin.This sudden interest in bitcoin also increase its price and hence it's price

The halving will not get media attention as much as the price rise. We need price rise before halving.

The price has risen quite a lot recently. I suspect it is manipulated so that the Bitmain's miner can be priced higher.

[spazzdla]

The influx of new coins will be cut in 1/2... it cannot be baked in.