To buy or not to buy. That is the question

[Meladath]

Hey guys, I have been lurking here for little over 2 weeks and I have been mining on my 6950 and an old 4850 I have. I am SERIOUSLY contemplating ordering a BFL Little Single SC ($649.99 30GH/s).

I have been looking at the profitability calcuator and well, even in the worst possible situation I can think of (otehr than bitcoin becoming useless) I will still make $2 a day.

The settings I used to estimate this were:
15 million difficulty (As ASIC's will come out it will increase a lot, I imagine if I order one now it wont be here for ~2-3 months and I guessed it would be around this)

Bitcoins per block 12.5 (I am not quite sure how this is determined, I know it is halved each time and as we are currently on 25 and this is worst case check I just used this)

5 USD - BTC rate (Currently ~$28, as I said, worst case check)

28GH/s (they are advertised at 30, but I may get a bad one, who knows)

Electricity price $0.21 (its ~15p per KWh here in the UK, which is around 21 cents)

Cost of hardware $750 ($650 + shipping + any other fees I might get such as customs or something)

Using this I got a net profit of $2.05 a day, with ROI being just over a year and a half. Which sounds pretty bad to me, but this is obviously a worst case scenario.

Using these better settings:

10 million difficulty
25 BTC per block
25 USD - BTC rate
30GH/s
$0.21 KWh
Hardware cost $750

I get around $22 profit a day, with it RIO being only just over a month.

So yeah, I am seriously considering getting one.

Anyone's opinions? thanks

[bam91]

Buy.

[Meladath]

Thanks for the reply, I might be asking a bit much but why exactly? It all seems too good to be true but... When that is the case it usually is

[jwzguy]

Unfortunately, that's not the worst case scenario, by a long shot. Worst case is that you never get the hardware and your money is tied up with the pre-order for months and months.

Worst case for difficulty is far above 10 million when you get a unit, assuming they do deliver, and you never break even.

I would buy BTC and wait until BFL has delivered at least 1 working unit before ordering from them.

[Meladath]

Thanks
In response yes, I was going to wait until they had delivered at least one unit before I ordered, I would love something like an Avalon but only half the price/power, problem is they don't make one, and BFL rigs look WAY more power efficient which is a big thing where I live Also I would need to buy in bitcoins (exchanges and stuff) and they have none in stock Q_Q.

My difficulty for worst case was 15m (which may still be off mind you), not 10m, that was my "realistic" estimate based on things I have seen around the forums and guessing from the last months increases and stuff.

[MooC Tals]

Seriously it's up to you.

But

I been following this from October. They were saying that shipping was gonna be around November to early Dec.

So be very careful. I'm now hearing that ordering now will get you a estimated ship date of May June.

In my opinion I won't order till I see a working and shippable unit. Till then its October all over again. To many lies that they have been caught in.

BE VERY CAREFUL

[lassdas]

My difficulty for worst case was 15m...

That's not a bad case at all.
Someone else was poking some ASIC-numbers and came around with at least (!) 500TH/s in ASICS already ordered.
Current Network is ~30TH/s, difficulty 3.65m, so at 530TH/s difficulty would be around 65m and that's the best case, not the worst. 

[vdragon]

I'd rather not buy - simply they are way to late.

[johnniewalker]

WAIT !
Its the most sensible thing to do. I really hope BFL delivers or a lot of people are going to be really disappointed and out of a LOT of money.
It screams suspicious to me that shipping dates keep getting pushed back and back. And also Josh Zerlan, the CEO of BFL is a white-collar criminal. He was involved in a mail-lottery scam and served time for it. Interesting to put someone like him in charge of your company...

[evilpete]

I'd have bought a round #2 Avalon if I'd been paying attention and had sufficient coins onhand.  And of course BitInstant was crippled at the time.

I really don't know what to think about the BFL stuff.  The comment they made about getting their first samples of the chips was a bit worrying.

[Meladath]

Thanks for all the input guys, I think I will wait till BFL is confirmed then decide

[nanaimogold]

WAIT !
Its the most sensible thing to do. I really hope BFL delivers or a lot of people are going to be really disappointed and out of a LOT of money.
It screams suspicious to me that shipping dates keep getting pushed back and back. And also Josh Zerlan, the CEO of BFL is a white-collar criminal. He was involved in a mail-lottery scam and served time for it. Interesting to put someone like him in charge of your company...

Funny thing to say, considering what criminal you tout.

And there is that misuse of ellipsis again. Hmmm

[MooC Tals]

WAIT !
Its the most sensible thing to do. I really hope BFL delivers or a lot of people are going to be really disappointed and out of a LOT of money.
It screams suspicious to me that shipping dates keep getting pushed back and back. And also Josh Zerlan, the CEO of BFL is a white-collar criminal. He was involved in a mail-lottery scam and served time for it. Interesting to put someone like him in charge of your company...

Funny thing to say, considering what criminal you tout.

And there is that misuse of ellipsis again. Hmmm

Well with BFL advertising here those are necessary before threads go get closed and ...

Date got pushed out again...

[gamelife859]

Why would anyone still ordering with BFL? when avalon 2nd batch is about to ship in 4 weeks.

[MooC Tals]

WAIT !
Its the most sensible thing to do. I really hope BFL delivers or a lot of people are going to be really disappointed and out of a LOT of money.
It screams suspicious to me that shipping dates keep getting pushed back and back. And also Josh Zerlan, the CEO of BFL is a white-collar criminal. He was involved in a mail-lottery scam and served time for it. Interesting to put someone like him in charge of your company...

You should be careful to post facts when making such accusations.

The guy you are talking about isn't Mr. Zerlan, it's Mr. Vleisides.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=110805.0

Yea josh is just the sock puppet. On the internet everyone needs to do their own due diligent.

[Lethn]

I would just say bollocks to the whole mining scene to be honest and trade real goods for Bitcoin, I think the mining for Bitcoin phase has passed and it's going to be practical as a currency now.

[bboy]

I hope these "money making machines" never come out. Otherwise us folk won't be able to do anything with our humble gpus. 

[MooC Tals]

I would just say bollocks to the whole mining scene to be honest and trade real goods for Bitcoin, I think the mining for Bitcoin phase has passed and it's going to be practical as a currency now.

I can agree with what you're saying however how is the transactions going to be processed without the miners processing the blocks? Mining is the dirty work that needs to be done.
Just like anything else when too many people are participating the rewards will be slim. So many will leave and that will continue until the pay is worth the work.

So you want to use the currency to your benefit however you don't believe in the necessary work that has to be done! Without us you don't have a currency to use.

Further more if it gets taken over by just a single person/corporate/central authority then the faith in the system falls away and gets destroyed.

So as you can see the live blood of bitcoin is the miner and if you don't pay them you don't have anything at all. Miners don't offer their currency for free, they will hold it until they feel it is worth to sell and that brings prices up. The demand for the currency is also a necessary component as well.

Money is being made everywhere and by everyone even at the exchange level. Business are the last ones at this and will find bitcoins a welcomed additional pay method as the charge backs are not an issue. Along with the substantial less fees to use.

In the end and as a nutshell bitcoin is only supported by the people and as soon as it is taken over it falls apart.

[illphukiir]

BUYYY!