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美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌
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Topic: 美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌 (Read 428 times)
alphacoin123
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美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌
August 01, 2016, 02:26:13 PM
#1
昨天,美联储声明的态度无疑是积极,对美国经济的评估远远超过之前,但是这却可能导致美元兑换比特币的价格(BTC-USD)下跌,该声明强调了:
“六月强劲的就业增长”以及“在最近几个月劳动力利用率有所增加。”
声明还强调,虽然家庭支出增长强劲,但企业投资仍然疲弱。
此外,这也是美联储今年第一次对美国经济在短期内风险评估做出乐观回应,“短期内的经济风险已经减少。”
就国际经济形式而言,这与四个月之前形成了鲜明的对比,当时美国央行曾经警告说,“海外发展增加了风险。”
虽然,联邦公开市场委员会( the Federal Open Market Committee)决定将利率维持在0.25-0.5%的范围内,但其中一位成员提出异议。 Esther L. George投票赞成将基准利率提高到0.5-0.75%的范围内。总而言之,这些因素都表明下一次在九月举行的美联储会议上美国可能会加息。
高利率将提高对美元的需求,从而导致其他资产相对升值。因此,如果经济数据继续显示美国经济前景乐观,加息的可能性将增加,导致比特币价格兑换美元的价格下跌。
尽管,美国央行的此举会降低大家购买比特币的兴趣,但是日本央行正在策划一个巨大的货币刺激计划,应该会有助于提高比特币的购买兴趣。昨天,日本首相安倍晋三就宣布了一项耗资28万亿日元(合约2650亿美元)的经济刺激计划。
类似这么大规模的货币注入经济意味着,这一措施可能需要一段时间才能执行。这个刺激计划希望能够压低日元的价格,因为最近投资者都在寻求避险货币,如日元和瑞郎,导致日元价格激增。货币供应量和日本央行持有的债务增加有显著削弱日元的效果。
预计日本央行在本周将会进一步下调利率至负值,以抵御日元升值以及帮助受强劲的国内货币负面影响的日本出口业。日本央行最有可能在本周五(00:00 GMT)将基准利率下调至-0.1%-0.2%,届时会有声明跟进。
下图显示了日本负利率政策对XBT-JPY的影响。在负利率政策实施后,比特币设法冲破5000和6000的心理防线。考虑到日本央行从上周五开始调节利率,我们可以预测这样的长期看涨趋势会得以延续,并再次见到XBT-JPY被推向8000。
此外,周五(12:30 GMT)也将看到美国最新公布的经济增长数据,将会对九月美联储的下一次利率决策造成影响。高于预期的增长会刺激加息,在市场上美元将会走强。美国的国内生产总值(The Gross Domestic Product )第二季度的预期为2.6%,对比第一季度的1.1%,高指数意味着利率提高的可能进一步增加。
下图则显示BTC-USD受挫跌破400美元,在美联储开始正常化政策,并且将基准利率上调25个基点后,BTC-USD出现明显的下跌。如果九月份美联储还是决定提高利率,那么类似的情况可能会再次出现。
这样一来,我们可以看出BTC-USD和XBT-JPY的走势存在分歧。从长期来看以日元计算的比特币价格预期是上升的,但是以美元计算比特币价格却是随着美联储货币政策正常化和美国经济增强而下跌的。
在长时间误导市场后,美联储不得不面对自己的信誉问题。他们将在情况无法达到完美的条件下提高利率,至少在今年内加一次息。
如果其他因素不变,如果收入的数据请款良好和市场亦已准备好再次加息,美元将显著升值而BTC-USD的情况将不容乐观。
haroldyyy
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Re: 美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌
August 02, 2016, 06:26:10 AM
#2
呵呵,是吗
btcmaroc
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Re: 美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌
August 02, 2016, 09:21:37 AM
#3
btc要被大多数人认识和接受后就是硬通货!
logicfolo
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Re: 美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌
August 02, 2016, 07:23:33 PM
#4
有什么关系吗
moses1980
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Re: 美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌
August 03, 2016, 03:52:06 AM
#5
已经暴跌了比特币!
h7074531cha
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Re: 美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌
August 03, 2016, 11:21:17 AM
#6
下跌
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美国经济的乐观情绪可能导致美元兑换比特币价格下跌
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