Bitcoin Price Update for September 21, 2016
Market Commentary (BTC):
"It moved! I think it moved!" At long last, after 10 days of being trapped in the 600 - 610 $ range, the market is finally moving out of this area to explore other levels. Due to the fact that there were multiple failed breakouts at 610 $ it made sense to us that the bears would try to take it lower prior to any further upside movement, hence why we rightly took off the VST ProTrade yesterday near the highs and why we are hesitant to re-buy at current levels. Now that we have some fresh powder to deploy when the time comes, we can remain patient for price to come down into the areas that we feel are more attractive from a risk/reward perspective.
Having looked at the longer term charts earlier in the week and the short term chart yesterday, today we want to focus on the medium term via the 12-hour chart below. We can see that price is still inside of the symmetrical triangle, and as expected is now coming down off of the upper trendline. Speaking of that descending trendline, notice that SCMR dynamic resistance is now painting overhead around 610 $, right where the final breakout failure occurred. SCMR is printing red candles now as well, not a great sign, although price is already in the pivot area so some near term support is now emerging. Additionally, the EMA's are now bearish, as is the 200 SMA, and volume profile could use some action in the 580 - 600 $ area (mainly at the lower end of this range).
On the other hand, the momentum oscillators are telling a slightly different tale considering Willy is getting awfully close to officially oversold, RSI is still choppy but is trying to base, and MACD is once again painting a bullish divergence. Additionally, PPO is now neutral which tells us that this is not a very emotional market, and the A/D line is rolling over but remains at relatively elevated levels. Given we have a short term OTE long zone right around volume profile PoC between 570 - 575 $, we think this is a more attractive area for a long trade than current levels are. Such a move would further recharge the indicators, would test SCMR dynamic support, and would allow price to stay within the triangle consolidation thus keeping our forecast for an eventual upside resolution intact.
Having said that, if the market decides to selloff a bit more than expected, then the lower OTE long zone and top of the major demand area around 520 $ would likely be the next stop in our opinion, and we would be buyers of that move as well. Finally, if the bulls are able to take back control then they still have a ton of resistance to get through before FOMO kicks in. 610 $, 630 $, and 650 $ should all prove to be quite a test, so we do not think a powerful move to the upside is in the cards for bitcoin just yet. We will remain patient and neutral for the time being. Stillllll waiting...
GLGT!
https://www.bullbearanalytics.com/free-reports/bitcoin-price-report-for-september-21-2016
