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8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点
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Topic: 8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点 (Read 385 times)
fjl99
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8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点
August 04, 2016, 01:28:22 PM
#1
8月2日凌晨大盘暴跌,Bitfinex盗币的黑天鹅事件是导火索,该网站刚在主页上贴出被盗币和停站的信息,大盘即开始连续5小时猛挫900元,直抵11月-5月构筑的上升三角形顶部,然后迅猛反弹至3600元,日线上形成400元的长下影线,这种手法凶狠、盘面波澜壮阔的好戏在长期阴跌的熊市中非常罕见,而在牛市中倒常常上演,此其一;
6月中旬至今的近两个月时间里,大盘k线形成了下降旗型,这种整理形态在熊市和牛市中均可出现,此其二;
8月2日暴跌可厘清的几个要点
2015年11月--2016年5月历时7个月构筑的上升三角形有效性再次得到确认,依据就是这次暴跌的最低点位在三角形的顶部,且有超长的下影线,此其三;
经此暴跌,借用TD的缠论术语,大盘的中期价格中枢已局限在三四千元之间了,即上有4000-5100元的压力,下有11月-5月构筑的上升三角形支撑,此其四;
比特币周线30MA可以看做是牛熊分界线,这次暴跌止于此,比特币依然运行在长期上升趋势中,除非在接下来的几个月中周线30MA被有效下破,此其五;
8月2日暴跌可厘清的几个要点
周线30MA向上,暴跌止于此,且止于7个月时间构筑的上升三角形顶部
投机资金在这次暴跌中杀跌追涨、止损平仓,无疑大多数会不能如愿,甚至损失惨重,市场的长期平均成本抬高,市场浮动盈利大为减少,对于大资金来说将来拉抬炒作更加得心应手,这么说的前提是你认为有大资金且大盘依然处于牛市中,此其六
比特币价格大幅下降,带领其他众多竞争币重新回到他们各自的底部区域,比特币的首发龙头效应进一步得到强化,此其七;
场外媒体舆论纷纷报道本次比特币被盗和暴跌事件,客观上吸引了少数有好奇心、有求知欲、有财富增值愿望人士的眼球,此其八;
目前不能厘清的几个要点:
1、黑客盗取的近12万个比特币(约占流通中的比特币1%的量)何时形成一股强有力的抛售打压力量
2、比特币大盘旗型调整的时间,一个月、两个月、半年?
3、已有风传的中国政府对比特币借贷杠杆期货等违规行为的规范、限制、打压的力度和时间
4、比特币扩容的实施方案、效果和完成时间
5、以太币硬分叉炒作对比特币炒作资金的争夺力度
暂时不用考虑的几个要点:
1、比特币算力的长期下降
2、比特币归零
黑客盗取比特币事件,犹如长江之水连绵不绝--这绝不是最后一次
虚拟货币的炒作风险远远高于一般人士对炒作标的的认知
风季灵
2016年8月4日
zjangma
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Re: 8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点
August 04, 2016, 01:46:42 PM
#2
好文,谢谢!
ramzifcb48
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Re: 8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点
August 05, 2016, 12:49:02 AM
#3
了解了,其实主要是交易所问题,不是btc问题
yiqianmvmov1824
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Re: 8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点
August 05, 2016, 02:27:57 AM
#4
平台监守自盗
qd67260481mengj@163.com
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Re: 8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点
August 05, 2016, 02:32:44 AM
#5
分析的蛮好~涨姿势了~
Mr.K
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Re: 8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点
August 05, 2016, 02:55:55 AM
#6
交易所比特币被盗并不会影响比特币的价值,最多就是影响一时的价格。
however,比特币价格涨涨跌跌才是常态。
luoditcutf99879
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Re: 8月2日比特币暴跌可厘清的几个要点
August 05, 2016, 04:20:09 AM
#7
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