The change of the political situation in the Middle East

This article was published in "Our Country" Israeli newspaper May 28, 1997. Since then, many things have happened. It should be noted that after the right-wing killed by Israeli Prime Minister, who was close to reconciliation with the Arabs, the peace process in fact has not moved one iota. As I had foreseen, Turkey began a very warm relationship, at the level of strategic partners. However, the reluctance of the Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories put Turkey in front of a choice, or continue to be an ally of Israel, and get from them in international isolation because of the aggressive policy of the latter in relation to the Arabs, or to remain faithful to the principles of democracy and to support a fair aspiration of Palestinians to gain their own state. It must be said that Turkey has put a lot of effort to persuade Israel to the completion of the peace process, but the right-wing Israeli politicians destroyed the alliance with Turkey, to complete rupture incident with the "Mavi Marmara". And against the backdrop of the "Arab Spring" Turkey has no reason at all for Israel to be in confrontation with the Arabs. Big changes, as I had foreseen, took place in terms of the economy. The pipeline was built in Turkey, which gave finally Azerbaijan to use the black gold for his people. Israel still buys oil from Azerbaijan. Otherwise, everything that is covered in an article written 16 years ago, remains unchanged.

Alik Bakhshi

The change of the political situation in the Middle East

In recent years, frequent visits of political and military figures from Turkey to Israel and vice versa, even an agreement like purely commercial - Supply of technical equipment for the Turkish combat aircraft, but in fact these two countries are irresistibly drawn to each other. In the future, no doubt, Israel and Turkey have become allies for such a perspective there are objective strategic, economic and historical background.
It is also important that such a union is interested in America, a country whose influence in the Middle East is growing steadily and is pleased to be shifted to Turkey a significant portion of its allied obligations towards Israel, so as not to interfere with the growing US-Arab Relations. Firstly, Turkey - a NATO member, and secondly, it has a bilateral military agreement with the United States.
World goes economic rivalry between the United States, united Europe and Japan, and it is not necessary to have a special insight to see that the Arab world to America - it is not only oil resources, but also a huge market for investments and sales.

After the Gulf War oil-producing Middle East countries have understood that American power is a guarantee of their safety. By the way, Egypt and the integrity of its territory shall not the Soviet Union, and all the same America that led Israeli forces to remain on the east bank of the Suez Canal and insisted on the return of the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt. We must understand that the Arabs in the American conflict is guilty not only of Israel, but also the former Soviet Union, tried to enter the Arab countries in its sphere of influence and, following its strategic plan to strangle the West energy famine, depriving it of Middle East oil.

Israel has always been a political trump card for its patrons. In the first years of Israel, the Soviet Union and France, delivered him a weapon in defiance of the English. When England finally left the Middle East, withdrawing its last troops from the Persian Gulf, in the vacuum Moscow sent its tentacles. During the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Soviet Union as a friend of the Arabs (oil) does not spare funds supplied them arms. The Soviet military academies trained team officers of the Arab armies, hundreds of Soviet military experts under the guise of peaceful occupations of engineers helped the Arabs to acquire military equipment.
It was then that there was a real threat to Israel. But in the battle for oil has stood America, which took advantage of Israel as the only possible political and military outpost in the Middle East region. Of course, in such an alliance, and Israel needed to survive surrounded by many enemies. Kremlin's plans did not materialize, the Jews with the help of American arms routed the Arabs and defend the right to life.

It is not difficult to imagine what would happen to the West, the opposite happened. Thus, following the logic, Israel owes its existence to the struggle of the superpowers of the Middle East.

The military victory of Israel greatly weakened the position of Russian. Egypt is so disappointed in them, and that all cease all cooperation with Moscow, and after the Camp David accords even began to receive military and financial aid from America.

Ignoring the laws of the free market has led to the collapse of the socialist system and the collapse of the Soviet Union, the last colonial power. the truth of the Word is literally in an instant, like a powerful push in the earthquake, destroyed the empire of evil, hold on power and lies. A global political changes - the formation of numerous new states in Europe and Asia - could not touch and the Middle East.
The failed aggression of Saddam Hussein against Kuwait showed who is boss of the political situation in the region. Moscow betrayed the Iraqi dictator, and to verbal condemnation of the bombing of Baghdad, no one paid attention. If Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in the days of "developed socialism", the world could be on the verge of World War III.
Established by the United States anti-Iraq coalition with the participation of Arab countries - a great success for American diplomacy. Saddam's attempts to destroy it by a provocative missile strikes on Israel have been unsuccessful. For the first time for all time the existence of Israel was no retaliatory military actions (this coalition has asked America for integrity).
The then Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir followed Washington's advice and its demand on the participation of the Israeli delegation to the Madrid Peace Conference. Strictly speaking, it's the Middle East peace process began.

After the elimination of direct threat to the penetration of the Moscow oil resources of the Middle East, America is interested in peace and stability in the region. In addition, it will reduce the cost to American taxpayers military and economic aid to Israel.
What does it take to America quietly lived? First of all, to solve the Palestinian problem, and none other than to create a Palestinian state, whose capital, of course, will be East Jerusalem. Old Town, within the boundaries of which are shrines of three religions, is likely to have to get on the similarity of the status of the Vatican. Under pressure from the US to Israel will have to give up the Golan in exchange for peace with Syria, just as the return of the Sinai has become a guarantee of peace with Egypt. And if in fact all the way and will happen, it will knock a propaganda trump card from the hands of Muslim fundamentalists of Iran and dictators in Libya and Iraq: they will cease to frighten America as the enemy of all Muslims.

Needless to say, such a prospect offends the patriotic feelings of the Israeli right, but will have to reckon with the fact that America is no longer reason to be in confrontation with the Arabs.
Policy pragmatic, there is no place for sentimentality, she can use the feelings of the people to achieve their goals, but no more. We should not delude ourselves that America has for Israel, some special selfless love, making billions of dollars in gifts, supplying the most modern weapons. And this looks like a one-sided love, because the Israeli right-wing hate America, instinctively knowing that their plans are totally dependent on Washington. Let us remember what a surge of hatred and ridicule caused Baker's visits to Israel. Perhaps the same expects Ms. Albright and Dennis Ross.

The utopian dream today the far right - an independent policy of strong militarily against Israel. But, alas, without a powerful ally to Israel, as the country is not self-sufficient alone for a long time will not last, despite the existence of nuclear weapons. Incidentally, there is no guarantee that nuclear weapons will not appear in the enemy, which has also great material and human resources.
Suppose America refuses any mediation honey Jews and Arabs: sort it out between them ourselves. " And the war will not make a long wait. Israel will burn in the fire of nuclear Tehran, Baghdad, Damascus, Tripoli, possibly Cairo, having spent his entire small nuclear arsenal, and then will be in complete political and economic isolation. Not one, and not on what will buy not only weapons, but also oil and even kosher beef, and instead of manna spilled radioactive rain. And it is not necessary to have much imagination to understand how in a short time the hordes of Muslim fanatics literally wipe out Israel. The only question is whether there exists a place in Noah's ark for the Moroccan, Russian and Ethiopian Jews and where is Mount Ararat?
Jews with American citizenship, is likely to advance to worry about yourself.
Of course, this is just imagination, it is unlikely this will happen. Too much effort and money spent on America, our region, to leave uncontrolled events. Equally important is the fact that, as demonstrated by the recent elections of the Prime Minister, almost half of Israel's population support the slogan "land for peace". And if not under the current government, the next time, but peace with the Arabs is, it is a pity that it does not want to understand right and torpedo the peace process various provocations: the opening of the Hasmonean tunnel construction at Har Homa.

The times of slavery and colonialism, when it was possible to enrich themselves at the expense of others, have sunk into oblivion. Today the well-being of the country can only achieve the development of its own economy.
Japan attempted to conquer the Pacific countries, and it is known, for it ended very sadly. But the country that lies in ruins, ispepelёnnaya nuclear fire, in a relatively short period of time got life terms at the same level as the country winner. Now hundreds of thousands of people in China, Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia, Singapore and even in America working for Japanese factories. The same can be said of Germany. Here is an example to follow. Here, everything is very simple. To be successful, it needs the world and the desire to work.
Strange hands to not build! Israel in advance should be prepared to reduce US aid, which is necessary to eliminate the monopoly of the public sector in the economy, to remove any artificial restrictions on private business, including the religious, to privatize the land fund and to give, finally, the people of Israel so long promised constitution, one of the sections which proclaim the separation of religion from the state. Otherwise, we will have a lot of bright stars like Yair Levy and Aryeh Deri. Do not bring the Lord to politicking rabbis came to power, because in this case we will speak on behalf of God, and yet well, if it does not reach the Inquisition and crucifixes. Tom another striking example - today's Iran: politics of religion in an instant threw the country into an era of medieval obscurantism. On the way to the same it was and Algeria, but there is, fortunately, came to their senses in time.

The democratic transformation, the presence of a highly skilled workforce, advantageous geographic location, peace with its neighbors, these are necessary and quite affordable conditions, which will make Israel attractive to investment. Why would Israel not be a bright star in the Middle East, like Singapore and Hong Kong, the stars of the Far East.

The peace agreement between the Arabs will be a consequence of changes in the political situation in the region. But given the fact that the United States at the same time take a neutral position, there is a question about the real helper for Israel's strong political and economic prospects for the future.
There is no doubt that America is currently not profitable to be a clear ally of Israel in the eyes of the Arabs. But, on the other hand, to give up political and military cooperation between America can not afford because of the great potential to destabilize the political situation in the Middle East. The best option for Washington - is to continue the alliance with Israel through a political mediator. The ideal country as an ally of Israel and said mediator is Turkey.
Israel and Turkey, despite the seeming at first glance incompatible, have much in common. Both countries are in a similar political situation, and even have a common enemy, the two are interested in mutual support.
Turkey, like Israel, is surrounded by malevolent neighbors. Relations between Turkey and Greece is very tight, because of the unsolved problem of Cyprus. Not better things and with Bulgaria, has carried out a transfer of ethnic Turks. There is Russia, from which came the greatest threat for both Turkey and Israel. But today it is Russia sells arms to Iran and constructs there is a nuclear reactor, which undoubtedly needs religious regime no other way to make nuclear weapons, because the country is rich in natural energy resources - oil and gas, are unlikely to need more and nuclear energy.
History of Russia - is the story of a centuries-old confrontation with the Turks: the raids of the Khazars, the invasion of Batu, the raids of the Crimean Tatars, the conquest of Russian Astrakhan and Kazan Khanate conquest of Siberia. With the fall of the fortresses of Azov and Ishmael Turkey finally loses all possessions on the northern Black Sea coast, Russia further expanded with the colonization of the Caucasus and Turkestan. During the First World War, the aim was to seize the Bosporus Russia, and Russian troops advanced to Kars. During the Second World War, Turkey was saved from the Soviet invasion, like the invasion of Iran in Azerbaijan, only a hasty declaration of war against Germany, and subsequent membership in NATO.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkey has begun to show a cautious political activity in all the Turkic republics of the former Russian Empire. Drawn by the idea of pan-Turkism, Turkey cobble together a bloc of countries, covering a vast territory of the Turkic ethnic group living, figuratively speaking from Angara Angara to the two rivers of the same name, one located in Turkey and another in the distant Siberia.
Naturally for such a large associations on a national basis will gravitate and Turkic republics of today part of Russia - is of Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Tuva, Khakassia and even Yakutia. Turkey has provided political support to Chechnya in its war of independence, and it is believed that Chechen war - it is only the beginning of the struggle for freedom in the North Caucasus.

The possibility of revival of Turkic cooperation on such a vast territory changes the strategic situation in Asia.
Russia will no doubt feared for their Turkic underbelly and take preventive measures to prevent the occurrence of a monolithic block of Turkic countries in the heart of the Asian continent. To this end, Moscow in large quantities to supply arms to Iran and Armenia and the axis of these countries passing through the territory of Azerbaijan, in fact has already been created.

The most vulnerable place in the Turkish unit is no continuous territorial integrity between the Nakhichevan region of Azerbaijan, which has a narrow strip of the border with Turkey, and Azerbaijan itself. Strategically, this situation was aggravated after the occupation of 20% of Azerbaijani territory during the Karabakh war.
Iran feared for part of its territory, inhabited by Azerbaijanis, the so-called Southern Azerbaijan with the city of Tabriz, who was separated from North Azerbaijan as a result of Russian conquests in the Caucasus. It is important to note that the number of Azerbaijanis living in the southern part of Iran, more than in the north.

Thus, Russia, Armenia and Iran share a common strategic goal: to prevent a possible reunion of Azerbaijan and prevent thereby the territorial integrity of the grand scale of Timur inheritance.

In addition, to be a big political fuss around the Caspian oil, which Russia lost with the collapse of the empire. Moscow occasionally exaggerates the issue of some unclear status of the Caspian Sea and is already showing dissatisfaction that Azerbaijan produces oil in the Caspian Sea, insisting at the same time in the form of transportation of this oil is not in Turkey, and to the Black Sea coast of Russia, which is currently day is not feasible, due to the political instability in Chechnya and Dagestan, through which the pipeline passes.
According to forecasts, the Caspian Sea oil and gas reserves are not inferior to oil reserves of the Persian Gulf, and with the completion of laying the pipeline in Turkey is expected to leap in the economic development of the countries of the Caspian region.
Baku will become a transit hub for the transportation of oil Mangyshlak and Turkmenistan, and possibly Chechnya, unless of course it will achieve independence.
Geographically, the Caspian oil and gas available to the Mediterranean countries from Turkey than from Russia, Israel, and in this case is more profitable to buy oil close and not take it from the distant Mexico.

The appearance of a powerful rival of the oil world market certainly does not cause delight in Iran and Iraq's neighbors, traditionally exporting oil. With Iraq and Turkey already tense relations with Turkey because it bases the US planes started during the Gulf War.

So it turns out that Turkey, like Israel, politically alone in the Middle East and despite the fact that it is a Muslim country, but with a small but significant amendment - it religion is separated from the state - the best strategic partner for the region Israel are not to find. Of all the Muslim countries, Turkey is the most loyal to Israel, and to Jews as a whole. Recall, it was Turkey that took five hundred years ago expelled Spanish Jews. It should be noted that Israel's relations with the Turkic countries of the former Soviet Union are added very warm.
In the event that Israel and Turkey will become allies to Israel develops the prospect of large economic and political opportunities in the vast territory rich in natural resources. In exchange, Israel can supply its military industry, technology, irrigation and so on.
In terms of political intrigue Israel can exert pressure on Russia, for example, by supporting the Chechen Republic, as opposed to the sale of Russian arms to Iran and the Arabs, or even on Iran by supporting the idea of unification of Azerbaijan.
Important political consequences of such a union is, the fact that a number of Muslim states of the Caucasus, and Central Asia Minor to fall out of orbit general anti-Israeli policy of the countries of Islam.

28.05.1997.