You can apply this model to traditional commodities, but Bitcoin is different... You have pseudo-anonymous Whales manipulating a
commodity/currency with very little effort. They create these little spikes and dips, and make a shitload of money creating this volatility.
Is this a "calm before a storm" situation building? Yes... but not because of the prediction based on your model. Look at Bitcoin over a much
longer period, and you will see a better picture.