It seems like this ETF decision will be profitable to matter which way it goes. My plan:
Sell my current IRA/Roth IRA funds a couple of days before ETF news day. No capital gains to report - money ready to go.
If the ETF is approved, buy COIN as soon as it's available (when would that be?). Double my money within weeks.
If the ETF isn't approved, wait and buy GBTC after the big over-correction. Sell once it doubles and await the next ETF news.
Profit?
You have a plan, so go for it! There are many many things that could happen to throw a spanner in the works, but if you want to invest your entire pension into Bitcoin, then do it!
If you lose out, you only have yourself to blame, better that than missing out if evyrthing happens just as you predicted it!
I personally don't think COIN will double the price of Bitcoin. I also don't think that COIN being rejected will cause the price to half.
Good luck though!