One thing missing in people's price speculation.

[Fatoshi]

Randomness!

There are some super smart guys on this forum who think they can predict coins like LTC due to actual facts. It's almost hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic. The truth is 90% of big moves are irrational and based on intangible human moods and whims.

I've made more money than most simply sticking my finger in the air and testing the mood, often being contrarian rather than following the crowd. But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

[AusKipper]

But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

That seems to apply to all markets to include the stock market, not just altcoins

So many high value companies in the USA that never make any profits just running on loans for ever and ever (Amazon, Tesla etc)

I think though, a lot of the time, logic does EVENTUALLY come into play, you just have to wait long enough. Day trading certainly does not require logic though.

[loreRex]

Randomness!

There are some super smart guys on this forum who think they can predict coins like LTC due to actual facts. It's almost hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic. The truth is 90% of big moves are irrational and based on intangible human moods and whims.

I've made more money than most simply sticking my finger in the air and testing the mood, often being contrarian rather than following the crowd. But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

The movement of the market can be described in first approximation by a random walk, but there is a tiny fraction (let's say 1% of the total volume) of the movement that can be predicted with a certain level of accuracy. That's how hedge fund make a lot of money. Of course they are still probabilistic models, so the gain comes as a result of many trading operations over time.

[ASHLIUSZ]

Randomness!

There are some super smart guys on this forum who think they can predict coins like LTC due to actual facts. It's almost hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic. The truth is 90% of big moves are irrational and based on intangible human moods and whims.

I've made more money than most simply sticking my finger in the air and testing the mood, often being contrarian rather than following the crowd. But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

Logically thinking is the better way for earning through the price dumps and pumps. Though digital currencies were speculative,  at some instances these were​overcome by the acceptance and the circulation happening with the concern token.

[Fatoshi]

But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

That seems to apply to all markets to include the stock market, not just altcoins

So many high value companies in the USA that never make any profits just running on loans for ever and ever (Amazon, Tesla etc)

I think though, a lot of the time, logic does EVENTUALLY come into play, you just have to wait long enough. Day trading certainly does not require logic though.

VALUE absolutely does come into long term, though still a lot of emotion does too. I mean why should DASH be in top 10 and not another equally capable anonymous coin?

No I'm talking about the kind of logic that people are trying to trade coins like LTC right now, they think if a equals b then c will happen when actually it's all about sentiment, and in this case I would say sentiment for LTC is pretty low generally.



I guess my point is people are overthinking trading when actually trading is 90% emotional intelligence and 10% mental intelligence. Successful traders like to boast but honestly I think picking winners is actually pretty easy and I'm as dumb as a brush.

[talkbitcoin]

a long time ago there were people saying the earth is flat and claimed it is ridiculous that some people are claiming it is round. what i'm getting at is the fact that if you don't understand something doesn't mean it is random!

there is a certain amount of unpredictability but you can not call it "random".

since you keep mentioning LTC!
there is simply a season for pumping altcoins. the pumpers go around from coin to coin, accumulate them then start pumping these coins. in case of some of them such as ETH they are based on manipulation and they get pumped by the owners of the coin.
now it is time for LTC, it has been pumped and has not yet stopped.
so far for the pump and that means price goes up.

now there is always an addition to the pump which means a hype that pumpers use to get others on board too. for Dash and Ethere it was bitcoin price going down and them claiming to replace it. for litecoin it is its SegWit. for another shitcoin it is something else and so on.

there are additional things on the side too. people trying to justify that "hype" that i mentioned but it is always ending up the same way: DUMP.

again it is never random and it will never be random. all the signs will alawys be out there. you only need to know where to look and what to look for.

[Ayers]

Randomness!

There are some super smart guys on this forum who think they can predict coins like LTC due to actual facts. It's almost hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic. The truth is 90% of big moves are irrational and based on intangible human moods and whims.

I've made more money than most simply sticking my finger in the air and testing the mood, often being contrarian rather than following the crowd. But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

it's true that there is no real logic behidn a pump, but not all of them are random, some of them have a meaning, otherwise why you don't invest casually and see the result? i'm sure you would lose everything lol
i invest based on the good news or bad news in bitcoin, and i do the same thing in altcoin, but other times i like to follow my gut feeling like you said in your post

[Fatoshi]

a long time ago there were people saying the earth is flat and claimed it is ridiculous that some people are claiming it is round. what i'm getting at is the fact that if you don't understand something doesn't mean it is random!

there is a certain amount of unpredictability but you can not call it "random".

since you keep mentioning LTC!
there is simply a season for pumping altcoins. the pumpers go around from coin to coin, accumulate them then start pumping these coins. in case of some of them such as ETH they are based on manipulation and they get pumped by the owners of the coin.
now it is time for LTC, it has been pumped and has not yet stopped.
so far for the pump and that means price goes up.

now there is always an addition to the pump which means a hype that pumpers use to get others on board too. for Dash and Ethere it was bitcoin price going down and them claiming to replace it. for litecoin it is its SegWit. for another shitcoin it is something else and so on.

there are additional things on the side too. people trying to justify that "hype" that i mentioned but it is always ending up the same way: DUMP.

again it is never random and it will never be random. all the signs will alawys be out there. you only need to know where to look and what to look for.

I'm pretty sure you just argued MY point.


Btw One more time I didn't say there is no logic involved I'm saying the major part i.e. Sentiment is often the biggest factor. You can't trade on logic only.

[loreRex]

a long time ago there were people saying the earth is flat and claimed it is ridiculous that some people are claiming it is round. what i'm getting at is the fact that if you don't understand something doesn't mean it is random!

there is a certain amount of unpredictability but you can not call it "random".

since you keep mentioning LTC!
there is simply a season for pumping altcoins. the pumpers go around from coin to coin, accumulate them then start pumping these coins. in case of some of them such as ETH they are based on manipulation and they get pumped by the owners of the coin.
now it is time for LTC, it has been pumped and has not yet stopped.
so far for the pump and that means price goes up.

now there is always an addition to the pump which means a hype that pumpers use to get others on board too. for Dash and Ethere it was bitcoin price going down and them claiming to replace it. for litecoin it is its SegWit. for another shitcoin it is something else and so on.

there are additional things on the side too. people trying to justify that "hype" that i mentioned but it is always ending up the same way: DUMP.

again it is never random and it will never be random. all the signs will alawys be out there. you only need to know where to look and what to look for.

I'm pretty sure you just argued MY point.


Btw One more time I didn't say there is no logic involved I'm saying the major part i.e. Sentiment is often the biggest factor. You can't trade on logic only.

Well, then simply take the sentiment into account. Polls, tweets, forum, ecc.

[Fatoshi]

a long time ago there were people saying the earth is flat and claimed it is ridiculous that some people are claiming it is round. what i'm getting at is the fact that if you don't understand something doesn't mean it is random!

there is a certain amount of unpredictability but you can not call it "random".

since you keep mentioning LTC!
there is simply a season for pumping altcoins. the pumpers go around from coin to coin, accumulate them then start pumping these coins. in case of some of them such as ETH they are based on manipulation and they get pumped by the owners of the coin.
now it is time for LTC, it has been pumped and has not yet stopped.
so far for the pump and that means price goes up.

now there is always an addition to the pump which means a hype that pumpers use to get others on board too. for Dash and Ethere it was bitcoin price going down and them claiming to replace it. for litecoin it is its SegWit. for another shitcoin it is something else and so on.

there are additional things on the side too. people trying to justify that "hype" that i mentioned but it is always ending up the same way: DUMP.

again it is never random and it will never be random. all the signs will alawys be out there. you only need to know where to look and what to look for.

I'm pretty sure you just argued MY point.


Btw One more time I didn't say there is no logic involved I'm saying the major part i.e. Sentiment is often the biggest factor. You can't trade on logic only.

Well, then simply take the sentiment into account. Polls, tweets, forum, ecc.

I do....that's my point genius.

[dinofelis]

Randomness!

There are some super smart guys on this forum who think they can predict coins like LTC due to actual facts. It's almost hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic. The truth is 90% of big moves are irrational and based on intangible human moods and whims.

I've made more money than most simply sticking my finger in the air and testing the mood, often being contrarian rather than following the crowd. But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

Efficient market hypothesis.  But not as it is usually understood, but rather that the information (even "irrational information") is already included in the price, and that you can't know better than the market, but only gamble on it.

[bamboylee]

Trades are executed by human. It is rational that human emotions are included in the formula in speculating price. That is why FUD and such works so much. But you would need technical analysis to know if the price has peaked or floored. That will make you a lot of money.

[Fatoshi]

Trades are executed by human. It is rational that human emotions are included in the formula in speculating price. That is why FUD and such works so much. But you would need technical analysis to know if the price has peaked or floored. That will make you a lot of money.

Which is so much about being counterintuative cause its not about logic, its about seeing everyone go one way and walking in the opposite direction. And if you don't think most people don't fool for it then watch the hords desperately try to buy anything that has gone up 100% plus and then when a coin has crashed (when you should be buying) you can't give them away. Conclusion : People are irrational.

[cryp24x]

Randomness!

There are some super smart guys on this forum who think they can predict coins like LTC due to actual facts. It's almost hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic. The truth is 90% of big moves are irrational and based on intangible human moods and whims.

I've made more money than most simply sticking my finger in the air and testing the mood, often being contrarian rather than following the crowd. But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

Definitely logic should be the first one we must follow.  I was looking at the exchange last week and I saw XRP at less than 1k satoshi, I told my friend to invest on XRP since it has been too long that this coins had been pump and probably the following days will be the day.  My friend took my advice and bought XRP and now thanking me that he has almost made 12x profit from the trade.  I don't know, it only logical to think that all popular coins are pumping and XRP had yet to pump.  And my speculation is right.

[Pearls Before Swine]

There's too much hope, too much fear, too much emotion in general in trading crypto.   There's little logic because crypto isn't exactly anslyzed easily, like one can do with a real business.  It's very much gambling,  and there's too much emotion involved there as well.   I just stay away from low quality crap coins and don't trade much.

[kryptqnick]

Randomness!

There are some super smart guys on this forum who think they can predict coins like LTC due to actual facts. It's almost hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic. The truth is 90% of big moves are irrational and based on intangible human moods and whims.

I've made more money than most simply sticking my finger in the air and testing the mood, often being contrarian rather than following the crowd. But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

I think you are wrong a bit. Trading is not only the matter of luck but of skills as well. Yes, there are no guarantees. But there are some probabilities. For example, there is a very low probability that bitcoin will reach 2000$ tomorrow or fall to $700. And, similarly, if you see some coin was quite stable and than started growing+ there are people who believe it's good (on this forum) + the currency is at least a few months old - it is very likely to grow in price at least a bit more in the following days, so you can buy right now and wait for good time to sell it. Or you can just predict that the price will still be growing and will most likely reach some point in a couple of days.

[Fatoshi]

Randomness!

There are some super smart guys on this forum who think they can predict coins like LTC due to actual facts. It's almost hilarious if it wasn't so pathetic. The truth is 90% of big moves are irrational and based on intangible human moods and whims.

I've made more money than most simply sticking my finger in the air and testing the mood, often being contrarian rather than following the crowd. But seriously logic is the last thing you want to follow.

Definitely logic should be the first one we must follow.  I was looking at the exchange last week and I saw XRP at less than 1k satoshi, I told my friend to invest on XRP since it has been too long that this coins had been pump and probably the following days will be the day.  My friend took my advice and bought XRP and now thanking me that he has almost made 12x profit from the trade.  I don't know, it only logical to think that all popular coins are pumping and XRP had yet to pump.  And my speculation is right.

I caught some of that rise and called it if you look back on my past posts BUT it's not nessecary logical cause actually Ripple has been pretty much bottomed for tha last year so how come you and a I called it within a few days? Because we sensed old coins were being pumped back after the big BTC rise, coins like Dash etc so we speculated that XRP as a major undervalued coin could well be next. That's still sentiment in the end otherwise it could of risen anytime on the last year.


Ironically that is why I think LTC is being looked at again and getting some action. My issue is people are thinking it's cause of Segwit implementation...bullshit it's just sentiment and Segwit is at best just a news trigger people can hand their pump on.

crypto is I'm my opinion 100 people playing musical chairs with 10 coins, it all very knee jerk and feverish ultimately.

[CorePrime95]

Are there examples of crypto traders that got rich?

[Chikito]

sometimes the desire to get the victory that many people would think a little illogical, they choose to gamble in investment. get rid of the fundamental and technical analysis. yes what happened in LTC likely to rise to 12 $, and at that moment the price is suitable for LTC. the application also mempangaruhi segwit in LTC users, it is not wrong if we buy some LTC for now, and hope that a decent little victory.