The Price Is Still on Track

[move_zig]

The price has been sticking to the trend we started in January pretty well. If it continues, we should see $200 in May.

[Francesco]

The price has been sticking to the trend we started in January pretty well. If it continues, we should see $200 in May.

if

[Peter Lambert]

The price has been sticking to the trend we started in January pretty well. If it continues, we should see $200 in May.

Your line is meaningless. That is the trend which was followed in the past, there is no reason for that trend to continue. That trend ended about March 20th, when the price transitioned to a trend which follows a horizontal line at about 140. As with previous price moves, the price oscilates back and forth above and below the new price point, getting tighter and tighter as time goes on.

[N12]

Here come the log chart trendlines again. It truly is 2011 all over.

[move_zig]

Straight lines on a log chart make perfect sense. Prices often follow exponential growth for extended periods of time.

[Wuji]

Before anyone screams at me I'm just making a point (I am not making a prediction).  I don't believe these graphs have much to do with the irrational exuberance behind the price.  This is simply to make a point about linear growth versus exponential.  Let's say that Bitcoin adoption continues at a linear pace as it has done for several years and the exponential is speculation.  Now here is a 6 month linear graph.  6 months, I didn't have to go back 3 years.  

https://i.imgur.com/xCiE5lN.jpg

[move_zig]

Before anyone screams at me I'm just making a point.  I don't believe these graphs have much to do with the irrational exuberance behind the price.  This is simply to make a point about linear growth versus exponential.  Let's say that Bitcoin adoption continues at a linear pace as it has done for several years and the exponential is speculation.  Now here is a 6 month linear graph.  6 months, I didn't have to go back 3 years. 

It doesn't make much sense for the price to rise linearly. It's just as "hard" for a price to go from $1 to $2 as it is for it to go from $1000 to $2000--it's the same amount of growth. If you invest $100 when the price goes from $1 to $2, or if you invest $100 when the price goes from $1000 to $2000, you end up both times with $200.

[fitty]

Based on this chart, things are looking REALLY bumpy.

[benjamindees]

$30/BTC

There's actually a good argument to be made that this trendline is the correct one, and that the failure to deliver ASICs in a timely manner is responsible for everything we see above it.

[Wuji]

It doesn't make much sense for the price to rise linearly. It's just as "hard" for a price to go from $1 to $2 as it is for it to go from $1000 to $2000--it's the same amount of growth. If you invest $100 when the price goes from $1 to $2, or if you invest $100 when the price goes from $1000 to $2000, you end up both times with $200.

But it did for several years whether or not it makes sense.  The exponential growth I contend is based on the possibility of ATMs being installed without issues of currency exchange and regulation.  The big start of the growth was widely reported people in Cyprus, Spain, Greece, Italy, and Argentina looking for a place to put money.  I'm sure the gold burst pushed more in.  All this equals a speculation bubble or in the words of Alan Greenspan irrational exhuberance.  The point isn't that we will continue to see linear growth forever.  The point is there has yet to be tangible evidence to me to see a value over $30 so far.  If people move money elsewhere or panic sell I fail to see why $30 would be unreasonable.  Although with the new speculators my value still remains at $30-$50 until I see something real happen.  If someone has something tangible, I'm always here reading and absorbing it all in.

I'm not a bear saying it is going down soon to $30.  Hell gold at $1800 I predicted would get to $1200.  Look at how long that has taken.  I'm thinking long term and realistically.  Not trying to be some bearish Fud spreader here.

[Phil21]

Wuji, I think the problem you (and I fwiw) have is that *everything* seems overbought when looked in historical contexts.  Bitcoin is it's own animal of course, but I largely agree with you - even $30 seems a tad on the high side, when just 3 months ago I was dumping coins at $33 due to the ridiculous ramp in price for no discernible reason.  Yes, looks stupid now - but fundamentally I still feel I was correct.

When you look at gold, real estate, stocks, etc. the same thing applies though.  Every one of those if you go back 30 years or more, is so insanely priced I don't understand it.  Look at real estate - supposedly "oversold" at the moment, but the average monthly mortgage cost is still as a percentage of total income, much more than it was even our parents lifetimes.

If you're cash heavy right now, where the hell do you run to?  Bitcoin is a small piece of that, still mostly a toy, but watching (in periods of years) it seems like a microcosm of the every other speculative asset right now.

A large part of the answer is "we're printing money like madmen" - but I don't feel that explains it all.  Real prices for assets as in % of incomes have gone up, imo, unsustainably so.  Bitcoin just seems to be following the larger trend, albeit very much exaggerated.

[NamelessOne]

The price will rise and the price will fall, but one thing shall be certain... All your base are belong to us!   

[Wuji]

Wuji, I think the problem you (and I fwiw) have is that *everything* seems overbought when looked in historical contexts.  Bitcoin is it's own animal of course, but I largely agree with you - even $30 seems a tad on the high side, when just 3 months ago I was dumping coins at $33 due to the ridiculous ramp in price for no discernible reason.  Yes, looks stupid now - but fundamentally I still feel I was correct.

When you look at gold, real estate, stocks, etc. the same thing applies though.  Every one of those if you go back 30 years or more, is so insanely priced I don't understand it.  Look at real estate - supposedly "oversold" at the moment, but the average monthly mortgage cost is still as a percentage of total income, much more than it was even our parents lifetimes.

If you're cash heavy right now, where the hell do you run to?  Bitcoin is a small piece of that, still mostly a toy, but watching (in periods of years) it seems like a microcosm of the every other speculative asset right now.

A large part of the answer is "we're printing money like madmen" - but I don't feel that explains it all.  Real prices for assets as in % of incomes have gone up, imo, unsustainably so.  Bitcoin just seems to be following the larger trend, albeit very much exaggerated.

Hindsight is 20/20. If only I had bought that purple beanie baby bear in the 90s at $300 and sold at $1200.   If only I had bought more tech stocks with huge P/E ratios and sold before the dot com bust.  If only credit default swaps made sense to me and I realized the scam and cashed in.  If only Enron made sense and I bought and sold before the crash.  The problem is just being able to predict the end is near.  I usually never buy in because I can't understand what the hell is going on and smell the rat.  I have to understand where my money is going and can't just get caught up in the race.

If you're cash heavy right now, where the hell do you run to?  Bitcoin is a small piece of that, still mostly a toy, but watching (in periods of years) it seems like a microcosm of the every other speculative asset right now.

Well as for me I saw the tech companies and people who couldn't afford $500k homes from California moving to Austin, TX in 2002.  I bought real estate and as long as I sell I will be doing really good.  I just hope some rich bankers, wall street gangsters, or the fed. reserve (raising rates) doesn't screw me before I profit.    I'll probably miss out on 100's of thousands of dollars by not sticking around 5 more years but, I plan to sell off next year and move on down the road.  Better safe than sorry works for me.  Greed gets you in a lot of hurt.  The S&P looks like a growing bubble and rising interest rates are my biggest concern at the moment.  The USD are being printed like mad but, they are currently the standard and not my fear.

[johnblaze]

$30/BTC

There's actually a good argument to be made that this trendline is the correct one, and that the failure to deliver ASICs in a timely manner is responsible for everything we see above it.

what does the ASIC failure have to do with it? i dont understand

[cbeast]

We'll pass that $266 mark as fast as we passed the $32 mark in the fulness of time.

[arepo]

We'll pass that $266 mark as fast as we passed the $32 mark in the fulness of time.

this. patience, bulls 

we're still consolidating with decent levels of volatility from the crash. once these tremors have finally settled, which will probably not be for another month, the never-ending bull run will continue.

[Zaih]

Your y axis isn't proportional at all...

Ehhhhhh??

[notme]

Your y axis isn't proportional at all...

Ehhhhhh??

log scale