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钢价走势暴涨后出现下跌:产量上涨 市场需求滞涨
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Topic: 钢价走势暴涨后出现下跌:产量上涨 市场需求滞涨 (Read 174 times)
Maryewr
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钢价走势暴涨后出现下跌:产量上涨 市场需求滞涨
April 25, 2017, 05:12:04 PM
#1
疯涨了相当一段时间的“黑色系”终于开始退潮,包括钢材在内的大宗商品价格都出现不同程度的下跌,其中部分钢材品种一个月间的下滑幅度就达到了三成左右。这让“黑色产业链”上的很多参与者们在享受了一年之久的红利之后,开始产生担忧情绪。
市场
“黑色系”上月开始出现下跌行情
数据显示,从3月初开始,国内铁矿石和钢材的价格出现了一波幅度不小的下跌行情,此前连续飙升的“黑色系”开始被整个产业链看空。据媒体报道,从3月中旬以来,国内钢价下跌幅度超过两成。以铁矿粉为例,一个月前的价格是每吨860元,目前则已经降到了600元,降幅超过30%。而铁矿石价格也是一样,3月初国内铁矿石价格指数超越了850点,达到今年的峰值,随后便开始回落,到4月下旬已经跌到了620点,跌幅接近三成。而3月份以来,我国钢材产品价格也开始下调。
“黑色系”的跌价已经直接影响到PPI等重要经济指标。我国目前工业品价格同比涨幅的高点已过,未来工业品价格可能面临回落压力。国家统计局的数据显示,上个月我国PPI环比上涨0.3%,同比增速较上月回落0.2个百分点至7.8%,结束了连续14个月的回升态势。
分析
钢产量上涨但市场需求滞涨
目前市场普遍的看法是市场供求关系改变导致了“黑色系”价格的逆转。国家统计局发布的数据显示,3月份全国粗钢、生铁和钢材产量分别为7200万吨、6200万吨和9676万吨,同比分别增长1.8%、增长1.3%和下降0.7%。其中,粗钢日均产量达到232.26万吨,同比增长6.42%,创历史新高。今年第一季度,中国粗钢产量为20110万吨,同比增长4.6%。而据业内人士预测,今年4月份我国钢铁产量有望再创新高。但其实钢材消费量的增长显然没有与产量的增幅同步。数据显示,今年一季度我国粗钢表观消费量仅1.83亿吨,虽然比去年第四季度全粗钢表观消费量略高,但有机构分析,如果考虑到今年一季度钢材库存(包括钢厂及社会库存)明显增加,扣除这部分增量库存(未消费钢材),今年一季度全国粗钢实际消费量有可能反而低于去年第四季度。
xca900174
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Re: 钢价走势暴涨后出现下跌:产量上涨 市场需求滞涨
April 25, 2017, 10:34:04 PM
#2
产能过剩啊
gpc687908
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Re: 钢价走势暴涨后出现下跌:产量上涨 市场需求滞涨
April 25, 2017, 10:34:32 PM
#3
暴涨只是炒概念
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