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标准外汇:市场因劳动节休市整理 美元兑非美表现不一
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Topic: 标准外汇:市场因劳动节休市整理 美元兑非美表现不一 (Read 106 times)
Elizabether
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标准外汇:市场因劳动节休市整理 美元兑非美表现不一
May 02, 2017, 02:59:41 PM
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全球主要市场因劳动节休市,各大市场窄幅震荡整理,美元指数兑一篮子货币表现不一,法国大选和英国提前选举的消息令欧元和英镑在4月份强势上扬,两者分别在1.0950和1.2965刷新年内新高;高收益率资产获得支撑走高,而日元继续走低,美元/日元守住108关口之后一路反弹,目前接近112关口,接近下行通道顶部112.50;现货金价自1300美元关口下方跌向1250美元。
法国大选尘埃落定后,欧元兑美元跳空高开触及五个月新高1.0950,政治担忧缓解以及欧元区4月通胀率年率四年以来首次突破欧央行2%的目标水平为欧元提供支持。虽然上周欧央行维持主要关键利率和购债计划不变,但该央行将经济评估从下行调整为大致平衡,表明随着欧元区经济持续走强,该央行对该地区经济区前景也更加乐观。
不过对通胀前景依然谨慎,认为潜在的通胀率依然低,是导致该央行维持宽松货币政策立场的主因。但决议公布后欧元仅短暂回落。市场目光转向5月份举行的法国大选第二轮投票,60%的选民表示将支持中间派独立后人选、法国前经济部长马克宏,法国脱欧概率降温支撑欧元。
市场普遍预期欧央行将在法国大选后的6月份调整前瞻性指引,释放出于2018年年初开始削减购债规模的信号。虽然上周欧央行表示没有讨论削减QE或加息,但市场预期依然不减。若马克宏最终胜选法国总统,欧元还想进一步反弹。
美元方面,上周美国总统特朗普发布的堪称史上最大的税改案因缺乏细节而未能为美元、股市和美债收益率提供支持。该税改案公布后,市场反而更加担忧美国赤字将剧增,或达到7万亿美元。特朗普上任100天后医改案失败,其他举措也未能如期推进,令"特朗普交易"持续退潮。
上周末美国众议院以压倒性的382-30投票支持一周的短期支出衡法案,避免政府在周六关门。两党领导人希望它会给谈判者足够的时间来完成一个1万亿美元的一揽子政府融资方案,可以让政府运营至9月30日,即本财政年度结束。该赤字前景令市场加剧了市场对美国债务上限的担忧。短期内美元缺乏上涨动力,将保持弱势格局,但兑非美将表现不一。
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