oh no, heavy lag on mt gox, everyone sell!

[mgio]

Just kidding, don't sell please. There is a lot of lag and the price is beginning to drop. I wonder what is going on.

[BubbleBoy]

Actually, there is no lag and the price is dropping. It's normal, we are in the long bear market that accompanies a burst bubble. There is allot of resistance, the occasional pig rally, people really want to believe the dream. Slowly and surely they adapt to the new reality, somewhere in the $20-$40 bracket.

[gizmoh]

This is a correction, as many bought in anticipation of the usual Tuesday rally,with new money from bank wires. The money just never came..

[samson]

This is a correction, as many bought in anticipation of the usual Tuesday rally,with new money from bank wires. The money just never came..

The money will have arrived as usual, it's just that people have decided no to buy right now at the current price.

I don't blame them either, volume has been low for days, there's hardly any movement, it's stagnating.

[Rampion]

No new money sitting on the order book, on the contrary new coins are being added.*

Wake up, the crazy influx of new money we had before the correction of April, 10th has stopped. 99% of people rushed to bitcoin to ride the bubble, now they are not interested in it anymore.

No gloom and doom: BTC is stronger, more and more people are understanding it, but crazy rally has stopped. Now we are in the real phase of price discovery. Just a few months ago price was $14ish - now it will be higher than that, but it might be significantly lower than $140. Who cares. BTC is here for the long run, and we need stronger infrastructure (more exchanges, please!) and more BTC businesses going on apart from pure get-rich-quick speculation.

*source:

[samson]

No new money sitting on the order book, on the contrary new coins are being added.*

My money isn't in the order book either but believe me it's all there.

The orders themselves represent only a small part of the available money.

[oleganza]

Rampion, yesterday I've noticed your signature and thought it would be interesting to comment on this idea of Jeff Garzik. I'd love to get some feedback on my idea: http://blog.oleganza.com/post/49174658108/economically-limited-resource

Sorry for offtopic.

[MacMiner]

My bitcoins isn't in the order book either but believe me it's all there.

The orders themselves represent only a small part of the available bitcoins.

[Rampion]

No new money sitting on the order book, on the contrary new coins are being added.*

My money isn't in the order book either but believe me it's all there.

The orders themselves represent only a small part of the available money.

Obviously - same thing about coins. There are 11.000.000 BTC available, but only 140K are sitting on MtGox order book.

Anyhow, that indicator is dynamic and changes quickly - but when we had dips we had a lot of coins being pulled in the order book, and fiat pulled out - which is happening just now as we speak.

[BubbleBoy]

The ask and bid walls are  theatrical props. They have little real life meaning. A sucker rally could start any moment, there really are tens of millions of dollars dormant in the exchanges which aren't making up any walls.

That being said, each day that passes the bubble is getting colder and the chance for another one is dropping. People buy because they expect profits. No short term rally, no media attention, no potential profits thus no bubble. Regular people will not use their money to day trade.

I'm not very concerned about the 5-20 million $/day figure Mark dropped. I don't accuse him of dishonesty, just that he's a bit creative with the numbers so it sounds like his company is bigger than it really is. My interpretation: at the peak of the bubble there were 20 million dollars flowing in per day, including bitcoins at bubble valuations. Later the torrent of fiat and bitcoins dropped to 5M/day, including fiat that was in transit during the burst (we know depositing money in the gox can take 2-3 weeks). So what will the fiat figure be when the hype cools down ? Maybe less than 1M/day, inssuficient to cover people cashing out and miners covering their bills and profits ? I would certainly expect that. The bills and profits of miners alone are around 500K/day at current valuation.

[Rampion]

The ask and bid walls are  theatrical props. They have little real life meaning. A sucker rally could start any moment, there really are tens of millions of dollars dormant in the exchanges which aren't making up any walls.

That being said, each day that passes the bubble is getting colder and the chance for another one is dropping. People buy because they expect profits. No short term rally, no media attention, no potential profits thus no bubble. Regular people will not use their money to day trade.

I'm not very concerned about the 5-20 million $/day figure Mark dropped. I don't accuse him of dishonesty, just that's his a bit creative with the numbers so it sounds like his company is bigger than it really is. My interpretation: at the peak of the bubble there were 20 million dollars flowing in per day, including bitcoins at bubble valuations. Later the torrent of fiat and bitcoins dropped to 5M/day, including fiat that was in transit during the burst (we know depositing money in the gox can take 2-3 weeks). So what will the fiat figure be when the hype cools down ? Maybe less than 1M/day, inssuficient to cover people cashing out and miners covering their bills and profits ? I would certainly expect that. The bills and profits of miners alone are around 500K/day at current valuation.

Agree on everything - ask and bid walls are theatrical props, but that does not change the fact that when we have dips we have lots of coins being added to the order book, and lots of fiat removed. Obviously that can change in an eye blink.

I'd also expect a long term bear market. Anyhow, compared to 2011 we are still having a lot of positive media attention despite of a severe correction, compared to the FUD spread everywhere in 2011.

So yes, I expect a slow decline, but with a much higher botton than in 2011, and a fastest recovery. And I won't be surprised if another positive media cycle boosts another sustained rally very soon. There are lots of things happening behind closed doors that will benefit a lot BTC, the only question is when those will be public and how much they will impact the media.

First thing that needs to be addressed, is how BTC are bought. Currently is very difficult for a newbie to buy a significant amount of BTC. All the MtGox validation process is a pain in the ass. We are used to it, we are already verified, but for newbies is a lengthy and difficult process.

[gizmoh]

Good analysis BubbleBoy, there is no massive inflow of cash anymore, and it can only be a slow sliding down unless major positive news appear.

[smoothie]

ROFL sell yes...please weak hands get out of the way lol

Then you can cry when we are above $150+

[BitcoinAshley]

Actually, there is no lag and the price is dropping. It's normal, we are in the long bear market that accompanies a burst bubble. There is allot of resistance, the occasional pig rally, people really want to believe the dream. Slowly and surely they adapt to the new reality, somewhere in the $20-$40 bracket.

Yes, because $20 price level would totally support the current level of transactions and economic activity 

This ain't 2011, we're not riding Silk Road's visual trails (whoahhh mannn) anymore.

The 2011 exponential run-up is now a mere blip on the long-term chart. I'm not saying recent events will become a blip, but no one's provided any evidence to the contrary aside from re-hashed recycled arguments from 2011. Give us something new, come on!
"It's a bubble"
"People are delusional"
"We're riding on Silk Road"
"No one actually USES bitcoins"
"You can't actually USE bitcoins for anything"
"Current price is due to greedy 1% speculators"
"Here's a chart, of some other bubble, bitcoin will be the same, because I said so."

Same shit, different year, any reason to believe it will be the same as last time aside from these tried-and-failed arguments? They were true in 2011 but are either completely false, or far less applicable, now. Oh yeah, the past always repeats itself, exactly, nothing new ever happens, every graph will look exactly the same as it did in the past. Right, forgot about that one 

I'm not worried about USD/BTC, I'm worried about USD/EUR and USD/JPY. Who will win the race to debase? Bitcoin and PMs have no dogs in that fight, we can just sit back and enjoy the fight.

[BubbleBoy]

Actually, $20 x 11.000.000BTC would support quite a bit of economic activity. About 1 Billion dollars per year in trade, at typical money velocity. That's still much higher then the actual Bitcoin economy. 10 Billion dollars / year for a 200$ fundamental price ? You must surely be joking.

So the valuation was always about the future perspectives of Bitcoin, not it's real world, actual use. And with XRP, LTC and the lot sneaking up to crash bitcoin's party, it's a folly to think exponential increase can continue. The onus is on the proponents of this "bitcoins can go only up" idea to prove how the outdated bitcoin experiment can forever resist disruption from later and better designs.

This time is different, but not in the way permabulls hope.