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靠“军购”壮胆的蔡英文,如何当“国军靠山”?
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Topic: 靠“军购”壮胆的蔡英文,如何当“国军靠山”? (Read 58 times)
Patriciawe
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靠“军购”壮胆的蔡英文,如何当“国军靠山”?
June 05, 2017, 04:56:55 PM
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上月底,台湾举行“汉光33”号演习。台湾地区领导人蔡英文亲临澎湖指导,在校阅部队声称她是“国军”最大靠山,“国军”也果然有如神助,澎湖反登陆作战击退登陆兵力、淡水河口全歼来犯之敌、清泉岗基地保卫战大获全胜。只是,隔天在接见来访的“美国联邦参议院外交委员会亚太小组主席贾德纳访问团”时,蔡英文却露出马脚,她请求美国保持对台军售,还称美对台军售是“嘉惠”美国的好事。
“嘉惠”,说得直白点就是“好处”;说难听点,就是台湾向美国交的“保护费”了。
蔡英文用近乎“哀求”的口吻请求美国维持对台军售,是因为她心里非常清楚,她是成不了“国军”靠山的,只有美国的保护伞伸过来时,台湾在心理上才有一丝安全感。“国军”保护不了台湾,蔡英文更保护不了“国军”,美国的对台军售才是维持台军战力的“强心剂”。
历史上,美国的军售确实使台湾在台湾海峡维持了军事平衡。1965年“崇武”以东海战,我年轻的人民海军以炮艇、鱼雷艇一举击沉蒋军“永昌”舰、击伤“永泰”舰,蒋军失去台湾海峡制海权,停止西扰。而后,大陆由于“文革”,部队装备成长缓慢,而台湾在美国军援及军售下,维持了对大陆的微弱优势。及至上世纪末,面对李登辉“两国论”的“台独”狂潮,大陆不得不购买俄罗斯“现代”级驱逐舰和“苏30”飞机救急。然而时易境迁,随着大陆经济高速增长,大陆军队的装备和训练水平快速提高,两岸军事实力对比早已发生质的改变。现在大陆网民讨论的是,几小时、几天攻占台湾,而台湾扰心的是能否坚持一周以上等待美日救援。
所以,美国的对台军售,对蔡英文当局来说有着比天还大的意义。它象征着美国这个老大还在收“保护费”,也就是对台湾的承诺还在,是蔡英文对抗大陆的强大心理支撑。它象征着台军还能获得几件高科技装备,为“抵抗一周”等待美军救援打好心理基础。其实,台湾社会很清楚,蔡英文这个“靠山”纯属址淡,靠台军拒统更是鸡蛋碰石头。但台湾社会却普遍天真地认为“美军会来救台”。蔡英文知道民众心理,不惜“嘉惠”各方,求美军售,是拉美国做“靠山”,以欺骗民心。
但是,台湾社会更应该清楚的是,美国的对外战略永远是为美国的国家利益服务的。美国的《台湾关系法》及所谓的对台湾“六项保证”,是当年冷战时代的产物,是当时中美战略力量对比下的产物,是当时中美战略互信程度的产物。冷战的结束、中美关系的改善,特别是中美战略力量正在发生结构性改变的情况下,美国未来对台海的军事介入还能像上个世纪一样吗?上个世纪末,一个美军航母群就能改变台海军事力量对比,而今天,美国还有这种自信吗?将来,可能连这个念头都没有。在“台独”分子们设想的“台独”时间节点上,中美可能正联手在中东反恐,正联手处理世界经济危机,正联手互相投资增加就业。那时,“美军驰援台湾”在美国也会被看成一个笑话。
当然,在相当长的一个时期内,中美还存在着相当大的矛盾。这个时期内,美国还会对台军售,蔡英文民进党别怕没地方交“保护费”;美国的一些被“游说”的议员也会在国会鼓噪支持台湾加入国际组织;台湾政客们也可鼓吹“美军援台”以迷惑民心;台军也可制定一些花哨的军事战略,以便“固守一周”、等待救援。据说“台独”分子都是有“理想”的人,再配合上面这些梦想,会觉得更有奔头。
中美关系,是大陆最重要的双边关系,也正在成为美国最重要的双边关系。更重要的是,中美关系将成为影响世界的重要国际关系。台湾想从中美关系中渔利,只能是火中取粟,中美都不允许。
所以,一个要靠“军购”交“保护费”的“靠山”,台湾的“国军”兄弟们还是算了吧。有“九二共识”作“免战符”,多好,根本不用费这么大的劲!
(原题为《靠“军购”壮胆的蔡英文,如何当“国军靠山”?》)
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