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快时代如何做好慢公司,以及苹果HomePod的深谋远虑
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Topic: 快时代如何做好慢公司,以及苹果HomePod的深谋远虑 (Read 135 times)
Lindafgdf
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快时代如何做好慢公司,以及苹果HomePod的深谋远虑
June 06, 2017, 05:45:17 PM
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原标题:快时代如何做好慢公司,以及苹果HomePod的深谋远虑
文波波夫
神秘主义正在从苹果公司文化中迅速淡出。
WWDC 2017大会的主要发布内容:iOS11、新版macOS、wachOS4、tvOS、Siri智能音箱HomePod、iPad及Mac系列更新——在6月5日之前几乎已经被媒体悉数剧透,所有产品都没有超乎外界预期。
保密对于一家科技公司极为重要性,原因在于它能够制造超级预期,进而刺激销售、拉升市值。美国科技博客Business Insider此前曾列举苹果工作保密措施之严密的极端案例:要求员工妻子「忘记一切事情」、要求开发人员将iPad与桌子锁在一起、为某些重大项目重新装修办公室......
但苹果的保密工作眼下却不再一骑绝尘,这倒不是内部管理出了什么问题,而是我们正在进入一个科技瓶颈时代:
尽管IBM和三星刚刚宣布联合试制成功5纳米芯片,在相同功率下性能提升40%,但摩尔定律失灵已是行业共识;无论是俄罗斯Yota设计的双屏手机,还是摩托罗拉推出的模块化手机,都未能取得iPhone 4那样的的成功;以及大佬们心心念念的AI,更是一个用来团结消费者的遥远图腾。
苹果也在成为一家慢公司。WWDC 2017虽然未能推出革命性创新功能,但好歹也算是一场80分的发布会。
一连串更新无疑有助于留住苹果用户:新版macOS的系统更为强劲,新浏览器的性能据称提升了80%,这俨然是为即将到来的4K视频普及做准备;wachOS4更新迎合了中国中产健身热,加入了游泳、HEAP训练、快走的记录类型和训练方案;引入腾讯云,也为用户增加了更多选择。
当然,最大的亮点是Siri智能音箱HomePod,但苹果来得太晚。
美国调查公司 eMarketer 在今年4月调查带来的消息喜忧参半:喜的是,起码在美国市场,2016年,智能音箱市场月活跃用户超过3560万人,而且增速超过128%;忧的是,这个市场已经被亚马逊占据垄断性优势,亚马逊Echo市场占比超过70%,而排名第二的Google Home 市场占比接近24%,其它品牌则分食余下的零头。
「70-20-10」的市场结构,往往是一个市场成熟定型的标志。大概率事件是,苹果料定无法从存量市场中分得一杯羹,它的希望在于增量市场,尤其是那些尚未购买智能音箱的苹果用户。据投资银行BMO Capital Markets统计,截至2016年12月,iPhone全球用户总数约7.15亿。这些用户哪怕有5%购买转化,那么HomePod这款产品足以让整个市场规模翻番。
苹果坚定推出智能音箱的更核心原因在于,智能音箱是打开新一代智能家居市场的钥匙。对于苹果来说,形势尤为严峻,特别是在智能手机、电脑、平板市场饱和之后,苹果急需寻找新的市场增长点。
美国科技巨头都在豪赌智能家居市场,其业务开展逻辑大致是「语音助理+智能音箱+家居产品」,并且形成了如下布局:
苹果:Siri(语音助手)-iPhone(手机)/HomePod(智能音箱)
亚马逊:Alexa(语音助手)-Echo(智能音箱)
谷歌:Google Assistant(语音助手)-Pixel(手机)/Google Home(智能音箱)
微软:Cortana虚拟助手-Windows 10设备/日产汽车
在智能家居市场,亚马逊一枝独秀。与当年苹果高调推出Siri而后市场嘘声一片相比,亚马逊在2014年推出Alexa时颇为低调,从最初的聊天、语音购物,到后来接入Uber、Twitter、Nest,内置Alexa的Echo智能音箱,俨然已经成为一套完整的生态系统。而谷歌携数十亿Android用户,亦有空间大施拳脚。
那苹果怎么办?这家公司的优势则在于,庞大的用户规模、软硬一体的生态系统以及极具价值的用户数据。以智能音箱为跳板切入市场更为广大的智能家居市场,正是这家老牌科技公司的深谋远虑。但事实上,市场留给苹果的时间也并不多。
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