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宏观经济风向标回暖:上半年全社会用电量同比增6.3%
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宏观经济风向标回暖:上半年全社会用电量同比增6.3%
July 18, 2017, 09:57:40 AM
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据国家统计局、国家能源局消息,2017年上半年发用电数据已出炉。其中,1-6月,全社会用电量累计29508亿千瓦时,同比增长6.3%,增速较去年同期回升3.6个百分点,延续良好态势。
今年1-6月,分产业看,第一产业用电量509亿千瓦时,同比增长7.2%;第二产业用电量20954亿千瓦时,增长6.1%;第三产业用电量4054亿千瓦时,增长9.3%;城乡居民生活用电量3990亿千瓦时,增长4.5%。从上述半年数据来看,二产占据全社会总用电量的71%,与去年同期基本持平。
电力是经济发展的血液和命脉,用电量被视为研判宏观经济走势的重要风向标之一。随着中国经济进入新常态,近年来电力消费也呈现减速换挡。
历年全社会用电量增速
今年一季度,基于宏观经济运行延续稳中向好的发展态势,春节较早及气温偏暖促进节后开工复产较快,加上上年同期低基数等因素影响,全社会用电量同比增长6.9%,增速同比提高3.7个百分点,延续了2016年下半年以来的较快增长势头。在制造业用电量同比增长9.0%的拉动下,第二产业用电量同比增长7.6%,对全社会用电量增长贡献率为75.5%,是一季度全社会用电量较快增长的主要原因。
据中国电力企业联合会此前预测,受去年下半年高基数影响,预计今年下半年电力需求增速将有所放缓,全年呈前高后低走势,全年增速略低于上年;全年全国电力供应能力总体富余、部分地区相对过剩。
长城证券分析称,从总量上看,在当前宏观经济运行平稳的总体态势下,上半年全社会用电量增速与CPI、PPI走势基本一致而呈现出平稳向好局面。总体看,受全国大范围持续高温天气,以及“十九大”前后政策经济平稳期的影响,预计下半年全社会用电量仍将保持稳步增长态势。
统计局数据显示,1-6月份,发电量29598.3亿千瓦时,同比增长6.3%。日均发电163.5亿千瓦时,比去年同期增加11.9亿千瓦时。 其中,上半年水力发电量呈现负增长,核能、风能、太阳能发电保持两位数增长。
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