Gambler's Fallacy (and you are committing it all the time)

[buwaytress]

We all know this and commit it! I still throw down a x100 bet every now and then when I feel I haven't seen a hit in a long, long time. Even with sports I do the same, especially with high-ratio win teams like Bayern or Barca. When I see a x17 payout and it feels like the big teams are due a loss, I take it. Works out about 50/50 of the time 

[mOgliE]

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray 

Not a Gamblers Fallacy but you surely are committing another fallacy over here! (I don't know specific name for it)
So just because they choose sports books over dice games,they're smart ?Isn't it suppose to be subjective what others choices/preferences are ? The turnout of events in a  match are also random and unpredictable.

Not exactly.
I wouldn't say people playing casinos are stupid because that's a hobby as good as any. But there is a difference between sport betting and casinos.

In casinos odds are fixed so that you lose. No matter what you do, on the long run you lose. Simply a question of great numbers law.

In sport betting, that's more complicated. Now a match will have X outcomes, each of which have an Xi probability to happen. Problem is that NO ONE KNOWS the value of Xi.
So you CAN beat the odds here if you're able to predict the Xi more accurately than the sport books and see when their Xi are higher than they should.

Now you'll tell me "yeah you think you can beat professionals? They're right 99% of the times" well NO. Because sport books don't want to be accurate, they don't care about finding the right Xi, that's not what's important. What's important is to put the probabilities in order to win more money: so putting odds to INFLUENCE the MAJORITY of people.
So if you're smarter and know better and analyze better than the majority of people, then you're automatically able to beat the sport book. Simply because the sport book won't care about you, it will care about the majority of players!

[olubams]

With what OP have there like others have said, it's nothing new because when it comes to online gambling, no matter your mentality, its not dependent on whether you will win or lose because it has been configured in addition to that the provably fair mechanism which has added to the reputation of gambling sites around here have equally taken off the issue of unnecessary thinking and mentality issues.

[Kallipso]

With what OP have there like others have said, it's nothing new because when it comes to online gambling, no matter your mentality, its not dependent on whether you will win or lose because it has been configured in addition to that the provably fair mechanism which has added to the reputation of gambling sites around here have equally taken off the issue of unnecessary thinking and mentality issues.

I do not think that the luck of a gambler and his quality depend on the mentality. Of course, an ordinary person can make so many mistakes, but if he has good self-control, the network games will bring Positive, both financially and morally.

[Junko]

I've got an exception for you, playing professional poker and purely relying on the stats that the HUD (Hold'em manager) gives you.
Too bad that there aren't any Bitcoin poker sites supported by any good HUD's like HM.

Every time I play dice or roulette or some other -EV game, I NEVER make any predictions about future bets

(Pssst.... check my sig for a bitcoin poker site that is supported by HM2)

The great thing about poker is that you can exploit and profit from, among others, players who subscribe to the so-called "Gambler's Fallacy."

Anyway, real gamblers know the "Gambler's Truism" which simply states, "It is bad luck to be superstitious." 

[lotuspod]

Agree with others that say don't bother playing any game that is against the house, if you're going to gamble then you're much better off learning poker or sports betting...anything that is against other players.

[szpalata]

Agree with others that say don't bother playing any game that is against the house, if you're going to gamble then you're much better off learning poker or sports betting...anything that is against other players.

Exactly, playing directly against the house can be very difficult to win but in sports betting where you play against other teams and indirectly against the house you rather stand a good chance of winning because the house cannot directly influence the game in their favor.

[ralle14]

Thanks for sharing a small part of the book that you're reading. I admit that I do this when I play roulette after seeing the previous results when there's a lot of black/red I immediately hop on the opposite color expecting to win trying to outsmart the house but in the end I always lose.

[Lorilikes]

Came across this gem while reading a book.Perfectly relates to the mentality of gamblers on bitcointalk.You all are deluding yourselves committing fallacies all the time! Whenever you are planning to gamble next ,please save the below images and fix it in your cranium.



Thank me later.

Actually I will thank you now.   Thanks for not being completely clear. Are you saying that you think we, As gamblers , are supposed to rely on logic and not luck? 

Luck is the fun part and logic tells me .... casinos have very bright lights. ;)0
O

[michaelch]

Came across this gem while reading a book.Perfectly relates to the mentality of gamblers on bitcointalk.You all are deluding yourselves committing fallacies all the time! Whenever you are planning to gamble next ,please save the below images and fix it in your cranium.

Thank me later.

True. But there are still some games where skill can overwhelm the odds and make you a winner 

[MinerHQ]

Agree with others that say don't bother playing any game that is against the house, if you're going to gamble then you're much better off learning poker or sports betting...anything that is against other players.

Exactly, playing directly against the house can be very difficult to win but in sports betting where you play against other teams and indirectly against the house you rather stand a good chance of winning because the house cannot directly influence the game in their favor.

House may not be directly influencing on sports game results but some bookies will change these results by match fixes. So basically all gambling games involve almost same risk. Even though we think that in sports we can analyse the results better but still end result depends on luck. That's why I always prefer to bet small amount even though I'm very sure about the winning team in sports betting.

[bbc.reporter]

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray 

The gambler's fallacy can also occur in sportsbetting. A good example would be all those gamblers who bet against a team or an athlete that keeps on winning because they think the team on a steak is already bound to lose. Robert Whitaker is a good example.

[el kaka22]

There is nothing new to see here. Smart people play on the sportsbooks. Others just roll the dice and pray  

Assuming sport betting an easy way of gambling for profit making must be kind of fallacy and I do not see any big differences from flipping a coin nor from rolling dice. Fallacy is everywhere because people get into gambling just due to wrong guidelines.

When there are misinterpretations and paid reviews on gambling, people will imagine many more fallacies and will keep trying it. But there could be some set of gamblers who are good to control themselves. For them this kind of articles may help to come out of gambling fallacy.

[Patatas]

The gambler's fallacy can also occur in sportsbetting. A good example would be all those gamblers who bet against a team or an athlete that keeps on winning because they think the team on a steak is already bound to lose. Robert Whitaker is a good example.

That is a different thing altogether.Had it been something like today the team X is going to win because they're wearing my favourite colour jersey,they'll be committing a fallacy then.

Assuming sport betting an easy way of gambling for profit making must be kind of fallacy and I do not see any big differences from flipping a coin nor from rolling dice. Fallacy is everywhere because people get into gambling just due to wrong guidelines.

Exactly! Also sports betting is not an easy way of gambling,you don't need much knowledge to roll a dice but certainly need to know about the sport if you're betting on a particular game.

[joshy23]

Came across this gem while reading a book.Perfectly relates to the mentality of gamblers on bitcointalk.You all are deluding yourselves committing fallacies all the time! Whenever you are planning to gamble next ,please save the below images and fix it in your cranium.



Thank me later.

Well I learn it the hardway. Was playing baccarat and I went against what was that time a streak of "banker". I was going against this one Chinese guy, and I'm always betting against him. And then this streak began, still betting that the next card will be player, but unfortunately, it went to like 5 or 10 streak (I can't remember it). I was pissed out. But now, I formulate my own gambling strategy whether its baccarat or roulette basing on the last result. Though I didn't know that there's some thing as this.

[sasaku bitbit]

It will probably happen if the confusion of gamblers that occurred there in sports betting if all gamblers bet against the team that already lost will happen then the steak as I think that sports betting should have the experience of it in the gambling game