Price of ASICMINER stock once it starts trading

[DutchBrat]

One of the most anticipated relistings of shares in bitcoinland must be that of ASICMINER

I am wondering what price people think the shares will be trading at now that the ASICMINER project was declared a succes by Friedcat and relisting of the shares is near (less than 1 month away)

[Peter Lambert]

One of the most anticipated relistings of shares in bitcoinland must be those of ASICMINER

I am wondering what price people think the shares will be trading at now that the ASICMINER project was declared a succes by Friedcat and relisting of the shares is near (less than 1 month away)

It is hard to value it until the final numbers are released. I would buy more shares if it is below 0.1, but I would sell shares above 0.5. I bet the price will jump around quite a bit when trading starts.

[DutchBrat]

I think we will easily see more than 1 btc if BFL delays by another 4 weeks for whatever reason. Even if they fill all their pre orders shortly, I still think the 50TH that ASICMINER will have in due time, the continuous evolution of the mining rigs (provided thay can make better chips) and the sales of their ASICs in the future warrant a price more than 1 btc.

If BFL fails to deliver the sky is the limit 

[Jutarul]

If BFL fails to deliver the sky is the limit 

No - it's not. Coin generation is now at 1.3M coins per year. Assuming a 30% coverage max in hashrate this equates to 400k coins/year.

Taking the 400,000 shares figure this means 1BTC/share for that optimistic first year. Assuming a 10% coverage in hashrate, we're down to 0.33 BTC/share per year. However, holding 10% hashrate longterm is a losing proposition, because of the vanishing profit margin for bitcoin mining.

The business model has to be selling hardware in the longterm. Then 1 BTC/share may be justified. But for that we need a revised business plan.

[DutchBrat]

If BFL fails to deliver the sky is the limit 

No - it's not. Coin generation is now at 1.3M coins per year. Assuming a 30% coverage max in hashrate this equates to 400k coins/year.

Taking the 400,000 shares figure this means 1BTC/share for that optimistic first year. Assuming a 10% coverage in hashrate, we're down to 0.33 BTC/share per year. However, holding 10% hashrate longterm is a losing proposition, because of the vanishing profit margin for bitcoin mining.

The business model has to be selling hardware in the longterm. Then 1 BTC/share may be justified. But for that we need a revised business plan.

Isnt that the businessplan that we signed up for?

Expand the asicminer farm to 50TH then start producing hardware to sell

The farm is just an added bonus

[Jutarul]

The business model has to be selling hardware in the longterm. Then 1 BTC/share may be justified. But for that we need a revised business plan.

Isnt that the businessplan that we signed up for?

Expand the asicminer farm to 50TH then start producing hardware to sell

The farm is just an added bonus

The 50 TH is not set in stone and selling hardware requires the devices to meet certain quality standards - and there are other factors as well which discourage hardware selling (won't discuss here). That means that the "pure" mining phase for the project may be pushed for a while until the company is ready to make a move in the hardware selling. The fact that this date is flexible is a big plus.

And no - the farm is not a bonus - it's a bootstrap. At least that is how I understand the strategic value of the mining operation.

[Dargumin]

I noticed these shares are trading at almost BTC2 per share now.   They were trading at around BTC0.4 in February so that is a fantastic return on investment, especially when you consider the rise in the fiat value of BTC in that time too.  They also pay out weekly dividends, last week they paid BTC0.03622241 per share.  To me this sounds like a good investment as currently ASICminer are well ahead of their competitors (i.e. BFL, Avalon), but talk on the ASICminer thread  suggests that some feel they may be over-valued right now, whilst others have predicted the price to rise to anything between BTC3 and BTC10 over the next year.  

Do any of you guys know what factors and constraints affect the share-price and if BTC2 is still decent value?

[GuiltySpark343]

How much will Apple's stock rise? How good will iPhone 6 be, and will people like it? Investing in ASICMINER is no different. There are some knowables, but also a lot of speculation. Ultimately, the price of a stock is dependent on how much people are willing to pay for it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.5460

[miTgiB]

How much will Apple's stock rise? How good will iPhone 6 be, and will people like it? Investing in ASICMINER is no different. There are some knowables, but also a lot of speculation. Ultimately, the price of a stock is dependent on how much people are willing to pay for it:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.5460

I think Apple is a poor example since it is off 40% currently, the market sees it currently as never coming out with a new idea, iPhones are cash flow, but not new ideas.

[FloridaBear]

I noticed these shares are trading at almost BTC2 per share now.   They were trading at around BTC0.4 in February so that is a fantastic return on investment, especially when you consider the rise in the fiat value of BTC in that time too.  They also pay out weekly dividends, last week they paid BTC0.03622241 per share.  To me this sounds like a good investment as currently ASICminer are well ahead of their competitors (i.e. BFL, Avalon), but talk on the ASICminer thread  suggests that some feel they may be over-valued right now, whilst others have predicted the price to rise to anything between BTC3 and BTC10 over the next year.  

Do any of you guys know what factors and constraints affect the share-price and if BTC2 is still decent value?

My two cents is that the current dividend yield (the most recent one excepted) does seem to support a BTC2 price (yield is still near 30%). ASICMINER seems to have plans in place to maintain or increase their overall percentage of hashrate, which should keep the dividends at the same level or higher. Throw in the blade and USB sales and you occasionally get much higher dividends (like the most recent one). Dividends would have to increase somewhat to support much higher prices, but keep in mind that for most mature stocks, a 5% yield is quite good. The risk inherent in all things BTC will probably keep the yield percentage fairly high.

Disclosure: I own some ASICMINER shares

[GuiltySpark343]

I think Apple is a poor example since it is off 40% currently, the market sees it currently as never coming out with a new idea, iPhones are cash flow, but not new ideas.

Thanks for making my point. Apple is a GREAT example. Price of BTC/USD currently is about $122, down from its peak of $266 a month ago. For ASICMINER, mining bitcoins is like selling iPhones... "cash flow" since you call it that. The new ideas for AM are selling hardware (USB Blockeruptor, blades, maybe Gen2 hardware) but again this is speculation, just like trying to guess what Apple will come out with next.