Bitcoin's "Death Cross"

[Lanita_io]

The crypto-currency blogosphere is overflowing with panic sentiments. Bitcoin is approaching the "Death Cross".

The "Death Cross" is the reverse intersection of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Given the vast numbers of current Bitcoin owners and the cost of mining (a break-even point of about $8,000), this downward movement is more like the "Bear Trap".

No panic. Let's look at the history:

- On April 11, 2014, Bitcoin costs $340 after the "Death Cross" at $680 in June.
- In September 2014, the "Death Cross" appeared and fell by 65% to $170 by January 2015. The Bear Market.
- The "Death Cross" in mid-September 2015 did not lead to a fall. Market growth continued.

This seems to follow the usual magic of technical analyses. You can find a confirmation of the combination of the price / signal bundle for any configuration on a long enough segment of stocks, futures or indices (the crypto currency's history is insufficent yet).

I provide my analysis of the monthly and weekly charts in my telegram channel. The bottom line is that Bitcoin must be closed above $8,000 to go to the new heights.

[rommelzkie]

Well i expect that bitcoin will drop up to 4,000 USD. When that happens, It will surely bounce back to 7,000 price level.

We all know that we are at the correction phase. This bear market will stay for a long time. based on history, Bitcoin recovers in 3 years time after Mt. Gox crash.

[wantjokull]

Well i expect that bitcoin will drop up to 4,000 USD. When that happens, It will surely bounce back to 7,000 price level.

We all know that we are at the correction phase. This bear market will stay for a long time. based on history, Bitcoin recovers in 3 years time after Mt. Gox crash.

@OP, good analysis however I am not sure if your graphical representation is valid at all. The Death cross is always there and it could take more than 2-3 months to bounce back.

Well i expect that bitcoin will drop up to 4,000 USD.

With the current calculation and considering the bitcoin price of ATH, 4000 USD is actually the value which you will come up as Death Cross end point. If you hit this value then the bitcoin will take around 3 months to recover itself. This is what the calculation says. I have read about these and never understood how it works but with the current market 4K is the death valley, you better wish it wont reach that low value.

[1Referee]

The analysis isn't all that bad, but I'm not that in favor of looking back at the 2014/2015 situation and use that as example, because at that time the market was massively heading down due to everything that was going on with MtGox, while in current situation the market and ecosystem are in the best possible shape. I can't think of anything that's negative at this moment, can you?

If the market sticks to $6000, which I believe is the case, we very likely will be jumping upwards from this point. I however do see the importance of a sharp increase from current levels to stimulate people to start buying and get rid of the bad taste in their mouth during the last months. My short term target is $8000 for now, where if fomo starts playing a role again, we might even attempt to test the $9000 level again, but the resistance at that point might still be too strong to breach. Currently the market bounced up, just like it did a few times last month already, so let's see if this time things are 'different'. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind some consolidation as long as it plays out at +$7000 levels. No trigger = no motivation, so we need to accept that.

[virasisog]

Well i expect that bitcoin will drop up to 4,000 USD. When that happens, It will surely bounce back to 7,000 price level.

We all know that we are at the correction phase. This bear market will stay for a long time. based on history, Bitcoin recovers in 3 years time after Mt. Gox crash.

@OP, good analysis however I am not sure if your graphical representation is valid at all. The Death cross is always there and it could take more than 2-3 months to bounce back.

Well i expect that bitcoin will drop up to 4,000 USD.

With the current calculation and considering the bitcoin price of ATH, 4000 USD is actually the value which you will come up as Death Cross end point. If you hit this value then the bitcoin will take around 3 months to recover itself. This is what the calculation says. I have read about these and never understood how it works but with the current market 4K is the death valley, you better wish it wont reach that low value.

Wether it reach $4000 or not the death cross already happened and like you say it will take 3 months to recover the investors pulled out before it closed the line. After that death cross there is a cycle elliot wave in my own understanding that makes a long slow recovery for bitcoins.

[buwaytress]

Not a bad analysis at all, strange that I can still learn a thing or two here... just not sure I could really see this "death cross", at least not when trying to compare against the past periods you brought up.

Very different, complex, nuances at play at all these periods too, in my opinion. Perhaps in 2014 and 2015, events like Mt Gox would have brought a lot of significance, but today's market is saturated with events - both good and bad, and none quite as monumental as what happened with Mt Gox. Take that same amount of coins into today and it's not the same staggering percentage of the market, either.

If you're arguing that today's negativity is clear, what's different is that in 2018, we haven't seen the kind of threats Bitcoin had last year with the forks, community splits, network congestion... again actually older news rehashed to look new.

[onurgozupek]

Death cross doesn't mean panic statement. In crypto world the graphics and analysis are only a data that traders can keep in mind while trading but they are not the only sources. If we receive any great news about Bitcoin, price will start to increase. Stay positive

[patt0]

I actually like technical analysis but the death cross is a really bad indicator in my opinion, because it has tremendous lag. The only thing that is saying is that bitcoin has been experiencing big sell outs from the last months. We all know that, so there is no big deal about the death cross. It only give us confirmation of what we are already experiencing and nothing more. There is not point in acting on that indicator, as it gives us no information about what might happen in the future. Maybe it will continue it's downfall, or just like it happened in previous moments the market will recover. So for me, the death cross indicator is not offering me nothing new about the markets.

Exponential moving averages can be used, but death cross, or macd crosses on big time frames, are lagging indicators that usually only give you confirmation of you are already seeing, and nothing else.

[liuqi]

Death cross doesn't mean panic statement. In crypto world the graphics and analysis are only a data that traders can keep in mind while trading but they are not the only sources. If we receive any great news about Bitcoin, price will start to increase. Stay positive

All the source are failure in current situation but still day traders successfully run the trading because experience is enough to predict the future possibilities. Majority of the beginners are failed in current situation. So it depends on the knowledge because experts are only run in current scenario others stay away in trading. I

[Lanita_io]

The analysis isn't all that bad, but I'm not that in favor of looking back at the 2014/2015 situation and use that as example, because at that time the market was massively heading down due to everything that was going on with MtGox, while in current situation the market and ecosystem are in the best possible shape. I can't think of anything that's negative at this moment, can you?

If the market sticks to $6000, which I believe is the case, we very likely will be jumping upwards from this point. I however do see the importance of a sharp increase from current levels to stimulate people to start buying and get rid of the bad taste in their mouth during the last months. My short term target is $8000 for now, where if fomo starts playing a role again, we might even attempt to test the $9000 level again, but the resistance at that point might still be too strong to breach. Currently the market bounced up, just like it did a few times last month already, so let's see if this time things are 'different'. On the other hand, I wouldn't mind some consolidation as long as it plays out at +$7000 levels. No trigger = no motivation, so we need to accept that.

I think if you consider all the events today, on aggregate the sentiment in the market is very similar (if not the same) as during the ‘MtGox events”.
This year there have been several hacker attacks resulting in losses of hundreds of millions of $ (NEM).
Binance and Bitfinex, TOP-10 largest exchanges in the global crypto currency market, may completely leave Asia this year. Despite the fact that in the last week most of Bitcoin trades were paired with the Japanese yen (54%).
The BitConnect story. Continuous scrutinity from the regulators.
In my opinion today's level is a great success. Potential is high. A couple of years ago, following such news (most being negative), Bitcoin would cost 2 satoshi…

[Beerwizzard]

The marker is obviously  not that confident and it might not be the best time to buy more but I'm not that sure about death cross. All those lond term indicators are not trustworthy, you need to take into concideration that during this whole period price heavily reacted on all pumps and dumps all the time while for a quality analysis you gona need a market that was at least somehow stable during this period.

This year there have been several hacker attacks resulting in losses of hundreds of millions of $ (NEM).

By the way the was almost no reaction on recent hacks. I mean the instant reaction, naybe right now someone is dumping those coins. For example after btc-e was suspended we had a significant dips.

[BarbusseH]

Technical analysis and bitcoin are incompatible concepts. This is still an unstable market that has a lot of volatility. New technology will allow to enter new markets and the price will make growth.

[metenjean]

I don't really prefer using deathcross but i still agreed that it still a downtrend and the upside move only become a corrective rebound.  Possible buying situation around this area is preferable with stop at the last low at $6k. I prefer using MA 200 to determine trend rather than using deathcross and as seen in the chart that it is a Daily chart then it may took 1-2 weeks to reach around 9k again IF the support can hold and didnt hit the $6k stop 

[JFry83]

Death cross doesn't mean panic statement. In crypto world the graphics and analysis are only a data that traders can keep in mind while trading but they are not the only sources. If we receive any great news about Bitcoin, price will start to increase. Stay positive

Thank you for bringing up that point! I think the crypto-community has become overly negative! Some people just wallow in self-pity!
What is your prognosis, by the way? Do you think the value will increase by the end of April? I think it will!

[peter0425]

Death cross doesn't mean panic statement. In crypto world the graphics and analysis are only a data that traders can keep in mind while trading but they are not the only sources. If we receive any great news about Bitcoin, price will start to increase. Stay positive

Thank you for bringing up that point! I think the crypto-community has become overly negative! Some people just wallow in self-pity!
What is your prognosis, by the way? Do you think the value will increase by the end of April? I think it will!

Of course we may see a positive outcome out of April... or maybe not. Death cross seems to have been overcome, but we are still in the bears territory so we are still not out of the woods yet not by a long shot.

Yes, we always remain positive because that's they only thing that we can hold so far (besides our coins). The month was started at the wrong foot as well, but we still have a long way to go. So just be optimistic that at least a breath of fresh air can be smell around, no bull runs though in site, but a good $7700-$8K at the end of the month will be a good sight to behold.

[squatz1]

Well i expect that bitcoin will drop up to 4,000 USD. When that happens, It will surely bounce back to 7,000 price level.

We all know that we are at the correction phase. This bear market will stay for a long time. based on history, Bitcoin recovers in 3 years time after Mt. Gox crash.

I don't understand how people can make such outlandish statments like this just by looking at lines on a chart, You think that we're going to lose a little less then half AND THEN GO UP ALMOST 90 PERCENT? I don't understand how people can rationally think these things, it makes no sense at all.

We passed the deathcross sometime ago, and nothing has happened. TA doesn't work folks.