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中国经济数据全面疲软 投资增速18年新低
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Topic: 中国经济数据全面疲软 投资增速18年新低 (Read 213 times)
terry1xxx
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中国经济数据全面疲软 投资增速18年新低
September 15, 2017, 10:22:26 AM
#1
9月14日,中共国家统计局发布的数据显示,中国工业增加值增速连续第二个月放缓至年内最低;商品房销售面积和销售额累计年增长双双放缓,跌至2015年12月以来最低;1至8月固定资产投资同比增长跌至近十八年以来低点。中共官方关键经济指标全面疲软,中国经济“新一轮增长周期”也被分析师指称为“伪命题”。
中共国家统计局的数据显示,8月份工业增加值增加6.0%,接连第二个月增速放缓;7月份增速为6.4%。此结果令外界大为意外,一些经济学家此前曾乐观预测,中国8月份工业增加值的预期中值为增长6.6%。
另一方面,社会消费品零售总额同比增10.1%,低于市场预期的10.5%。
而1至8月固定资产投资同比增长仅7.8%,这是投资增幅自1999年底以来首次低于8%。这一数据不但低于经济学家8.2%的预期中值,更跌至1999年以来纪录低点。《华尔街日报》表示,这是“一个可能愈加糟糕的迹象”。
从出口来看,中共官方称,8月份中国出口同比增长6.9%,低于7月份的10.8%,出口增速回落并低于预期。这是今年2月以来出口的最低增长。
中国经济内忧重重
《华尔街日报》引用经济学家的观点说,中共整顿信贷活动、房地产市场降温以及此前刺激举措效果减弱等因素可能都抑制了中国国内需求。
中共中央财经大学副教授刘春生发表文章称,近期人民币不断升值给出口带来的压力正在不断显现,人民币升值带来的相对价格的上涨,削弱了中国出口产品的国际竞争力。
由于前8月房地产开发投资增速7.9%,仅持平前值,房地产销售大幅放缓,有分析称,房地产恐怕将拖今年中国经济的后腿。
《华尔街日报》分析说,中国公布的8月份经济活动数据增速意外放缓,这表明借贷成本的上升和房地产调控措施对中国经济的影响程度较预期更为严重。
中国经济“新周期”被指“伪命题”
尽管中共官方统计局将8月份中国经济放缓归咎于“高温和降雨天气”,但多名分析师均指,数据反映今轮经济已见顶,下行压力加大,外界此前预期的“新周期(新一轮周期性经济增长)”是“伪命题”。
此前,由于中共官方6月份经济数据超预期,一些人预计中国经济“新周期(新的周增性增长)归来”。
九州证券认为,8月经济数据大幅不及预期,显示经济动能高峰已过、经济高点已现,“新周期到来论”全面证伪。
建投宏观债券分析师黄文涛也认为,数据已证明中国经济没有新周期。本轮中国经济企稳回升,是经济长期下行中政策刺激的结果,并非需求改善所致;随着政策的渐次退出和需求趋弱,下半年经济下行压力逐渐加大。
中共官方的数据公布后,中国股市震荡收跌,中国国债期货价格大幅上涨。有分析称,这反映出在经济前景不明朗之际,投资者对避险投资的需求
ybsok
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Re: 中国经济数据全面疲软 投资增速18年新低
September 15, 2017, 10:57:38 AM
#2
经济增长变慢了 投资增速降低了
bitmormen
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Re: 中国经济数据全面疲软 投资增速18年新低
September 15, 2017, 11:04:54 AM
#3
钱都还房贷了
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