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Author Topic: Why is bitcoinwisdom so far off on diff projection?  (Read 629 times)
philipma1957 (OP)
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October 13, 2017, 06:20:15 PM
Last edit: October 14, 2017, 01:44:57 PM by philipma1957
 #1

 current block = 489664  2017-10-13 18:11:20

first block      = 487772  2017-10- 01 06:47:20


1892 made in 12 days and 12 hours

144x12=  1728
6 x 12 =      72

1790  = 0%

1892/1790 = 1.05698 - 1 =  5.698% jump

yet bitcoinwisdom is at -6.58%

and charts show deep negative


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TheYankeesWin!
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October 13, 2017, 06:24:01 PM
 #2

      Phil you have about 12% higher with a manual calculation.
Last jump this also happened. Maybe someone  can figure this out but it looks like it is a 100 block error.  Two consecutive adjustments. Does any other companies have a more correct prediction?
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October 13, 2017, 07:02:46 PM
 #3

Methinks they need to change their goat entrails and crystal ball vendors?

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philipma1957 (OP)
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October 13, 2017, 07:46:00 PM
 #4

Methinks they need to change their goat entrails and crystal ball vendors?
the stats are way off.

That gray line is supposed to be current.

It is simply wrong

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QuintLeo
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October 13, 2017, 08:34:47 PM
 #5

They've been having issues since August - and haven't fixed all of them.

 They haven't even TRIED to fix their Litecoin chart - it's still stuck in mid-August.

I'm getting close to just ignoring Bitcoinwisdom as a result.


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philipma1957 (OP)
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October 13, 2017, 09:02:00 PM
 #6

They've been having issues since August - and haven't fixed all of them.

 They haven't even TRIED to fix their Litecoin chart - it's still stuck in mid-August.

I'm getting close to just ignoring Bitcoinwisdom as a result.



yeah  it killed off the contest because I can no longer get reliable data.

I am not going to do a manual calc 10 times a day.

it is easy enough to code  but I don't code.

       newest block  = say 1501
first block in jump  = say      1

net blocks so far   =         1500


time of current block       jan 11
time of first block            jan   1
days so far           =             10

144 x days  0% diff        = 1440

net blocks/0% diff        =  1500/1440

  1.041666 - 1.0 =    .041666    x 100 = 4.1666 %

this should not be hidden from the public

as  knowing the current real time difficulty with 2 days left  means you know    16 days worth of diff.

I do not like having this taken away from the public.

Means a lot for people like me that mine and sell gear.

I sold 2 avalon 741's  with a small markup I shipped them yesterday.  the buyer should have them on monday.

he missed the last sale.  I based my markup  partly on the knowledge that 5% jump up on late sat will allow the buy to recoup a decent amount of coin next jump  which runs from sun the 15 to sat the 28?

He should get 11-12 days on the next jump with 15th of gear.  that is about 170 to 187 usd in btc.

If I thought next jump was -5%  I would think the gear would earn 187 to 217   I would price the gear higher.
 

I like to be fair to my buyers .  So to be more helpful to this buyer I shipped on thurs rather then fri.

but only because I bothered to do a manual calculation.

I also will now have a gap of 15th from now until  my s-9's come in nov and dec.

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philipma1957 (OP)
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October 14, 2017, 03:51:03 AM
 #7

current block = 489664  2017-10-13 18:11:20

first block      = 487772  2017-10- 01 06:47:20


1892 made in 12 days and 12 hours

144x12=  1728
6 x 12 =      72

1790  = 0%

1892/1790 = 1.05698 - 1 =  5.698% jump

yet bitcoinwisdom is at -6.58%

and charts show deep negative



corrected to


489730    2017-10-14 03:40:26

487872    2017-10-02 00:27:46     

1858       made in     12 days and 3 hours and 10 minutes


1728
    18
      1
1747


1858/1747    1.0635 - 1 = 6.35%


+ 6.35%  is not close to

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   1,123,863,285,133


Estimated Next Difficulty:   1,058,221,612,607 (-5.84%)


Adjust time:   After 156 Blocks, About 1.1 days
Hashrate(?):   7,139,579,927 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 10.4 minutes
3 blocks: 31.1 minutes
6 blocks: 1.0 hours
Updated:   23:45 (4.7 minutes ago)



chart is way off  so   this is really misleading info




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Philopolymath
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October 14, 2017, 04:58:01 AM
 #8

Yeah I kinda figured they were out to lunch also..
So the question is ..
Is there ANY reliable source for tracking hashrate and difficulty?
I expect the recent price rise to cause a major shift back to Core from Bcshit..

Speaking of Bcshit..
I'd like to buy 1 single S9 of the current available TBS Nov batch but I have no Bch wallet and it such a hassle to convert just rite amount for one unit..


Any suggestions?
I'm sure as shit NOT trusting Mindtrip again..


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philipma1957 (OP)
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October 14, 2017, 01:44:15 PM
 #9

Yeah I kinda figured they were out to lunch also..
So the question is ..
Is there ANY reliable source for tracking hashrate and difficulty?
I expect the recent price rise to cause a major shift back to Core from Bcshit..

Speaking of Bcshit..
I'd like to buy 1 single S9 of the current available TBS Nov batch but I have no Bch wallet and it such a hassle to convert just rite amount for one unit..


Any suggestions?
I'm sure as shit NOT trusting Mindtrip again..



I hold a little bcc

do you have an account with bittrex?

you need about 4.3 bcc  you could send btc to bittrex  and then convert to bcc.

then do the order from bitmain.  if you have a little bcc left over  under  .3  I would buy it from you.

you send first .

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October 14, 2017, 05:00:44 PM
 #10

............
So the question is ..
Is there ANY reliable source for tracking hashrate and difficulty?
............


for diff:
http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

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October 14, 2017, 07:29:32 PM
 #11

............
So the question is ..
Is there ANY reliable source for tracking hashrate and difficulty?
............


for diff:
http://bitcointicker.co/networkstats/

I believe landy1264 link is more accurate for the difficulty and it seems to reflect the global hash increase that fork.lol is showing, but even that graph is not representing the hash increase to reflecting 5% difficulty jump?  It does show that the global hash spiked to almost 16 E/h but never shows BTC going over 7.4.  I still can't find anywhere that shows true btc hashrate but obviously the data is somewhere since difficulty keeps rising and looks to jump again with bitcoinwisdom showing nice decrease?

Is it maybe the "asic boost" which shouldn't effect BTC because of segwit activation but still affecting calculations?

 
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October 14, 2017, 07:42:47 PM
 #12

Yeah I kinda figured they were out to lunch also..
So the question is ..
Is there ANY reliable source for tracking hashrate and difficulty?
I expect the recent price rise to cause a major shift back to Core from Bcshit..

Speaking of Bcshit..
I'd like to buy 1 single S9 of the current available TBS Nov batch but I have no Bch wallet and it such a hassle to convert just rite amount for one unit..


Any suggestions?
I'm sure as shit NOT trusting Mindtrip again..



exodus.io newest update version supports bch.  It is basically shapeshift wallet that supports a good number of crypto and allows you to exchange within the wallet.  It is quick and free's up space rather than running full nodes of everything while having control of private keys, but it is just like going through shapeshift as far as miner fees, so still need to be aware of current fees on btc and when bch is in hyperblock mode vs hours between blocks.
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October 14, 2017, 08:28:46 PM
 #13


Both showing hashrate nearly realtime:

https://chainz.cryptoid.info/btc/#

https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/bitcoin-network-hashrate-chart

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October 15, 2017, 01:22:26 AM
 #14

thanks for the links guys...

Oh I just remembered I had plenty'o BTC in my core wallet before the BCshit split
Guess I have plenty'o BCshit just waiting for new wallet and prvkey import...
Yippee looks like I can get some free S9's after all...

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philipma1957 (OP)
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October 15, 2017, 03:28:26 AM
 #15

the jump will be large  and no where near bitcoinwisdom

5 blocks to go

489883 (Main Chain)   2017-10-15 03:14:35


487872 (Main Chain)   2017-10-02 00:27:46


only 13 days  and 3 hours

should be

13 days and 23 hours

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October 15, 2017, 06:29:29 AM
 #16

those don't look convenient at all comparing to wisdom (when it was working properly I mean). at the end of the day there's a lot of charts at blockchain info however they haven't come up with an idea to combine hashrate and difficulty so that people could see where things going.

I guess wisdom's problem is related to segwit implementation cos there was a week or so in september when the chart stopped updating at all. imo it got back up by some happy coincidence, don't think it's because somebody recalled that they need to maintain this service.
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