The price of Bitcoin has a 91% correlation with Google searches for Bitcoin

[alyssa85]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-correlation-google-search-2017-9

The current price of Bitcoin has a 91% correlation with the volume of Google search requests for Bitcoin-related terms, according to a study by SEMrush, a search engine marketing agency.

The study used a database of 120 million US keyword searches linked to the cryptocurrency. It showed that the price of Bitcoin in US dollars rose and fell largely in tandem with the number of search requests for terms like "Bitcoin," "Bitcoin price" and "Bitcoin value."

At one level, the study merely confirms the obvious: As Bitcoin becomes more expensive, and thus more exciting, more people search online to find out how it is doing. On the other hand, it is nice to see statistics confirm your hunches. While the study looked at the correlation between searches and prices, it did not — sadly — say whether searches predicted or trailed the Bitcoin/dollar exchange rate.

Bitcoin searches have gone up 450% since April 2017, SEMrush says. The data in the sample is about a week old.

Since June 2017, online searches for the price of Ethereum, another digital cryptocurrency, have almost equaled Bitcoin searches, SEMrush says. Here is the Bitcoin chart:

[davis196]

This is something obvious and we all know about this correlation.
Anyway,i`m nore curious about the current cost per click for advertsing using this keyword on Adwords and Bing Ads.Lot`s of forex platforms appear as paid ads when i search for "bitcoin" in Google.I wish there were other online businesses that would accept btc,not just forex,exchange platforms and gambling sites.

[manselr]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-correlation-google-search-2017-9

The current price of Bitcoin has a 91% correlation with the volume of Google search requests for Bitcoin-related terms, according to a study by SEMrush, a search engine marketing agency.

The study used a database of 120 million US keyword searches linked to the cryptocurrency. It showed that the price of Bitcoin in US dollars rose and fell largely in tandem with the number of search requests for terms like "Bitcoin," "Bitcoin price" and "Bitcoin value."

At one level, the study merely confirms the obvious: As Bitcoin becomes more expensive, and thus more exciting, more people search online to find out how it is doing. On the other hand, it is nice to see statistics confirm your hunches. While the study looked at the correlation between searches and prices, it did not — sadly — say whether searches predicted or trailed the Bitcoin/dollar exchange rate.

Bitcoin searches have gone up 450% since April 2017, SEMrush says. The data in the sample is about a week old.

Since June 2017, online searches for the price of Ethereum, another digital cryptocurrency, have almost equaled Bitcoin searches, SEMrush says. Here is the Bitcoin chart:

But notice something very important: In the last period, the search volume has gone down, yet, the high price has been maintained. Look at how the gap from the search volume line (blue) to the price one (orange) has increased. This means that even if people stop googling it, they don't sell, the price is maintained.

I can imagine search volume and price will skyrocket once we get lightning network and sidechains. That will be the ultimate gamechanger.

[alyssa85]

But notice something very important: In the last period, the search volume has gone down, yet, the high price has been maintained. Look at how the gap from the search volume line (blue) to the price one (orange) has increased. This means that even if people stop googling it, they don't sell, the price is maintained.

I can imagine search volume and price will skyrocket once we get lightning network and sidechains. That will be the ultimate gamechanger.

Yes - and that probably means we will either tread water, or go below $4000 till new money comes into cryptocurrency.

[Karpeles]

Correlation doesn't mean relation and there is no guarantee they will last forever.

But any idea why the correlation exists?

[TheQuin]

The exchange rate is the leader here. The price going up creates more interest and media coverage which therefore leads to more Google searches. I don't think this really tells us anything other than people get very interested in the prospect of getting rich quick.

[panju1]

Correlation doesn't mean relation and there is no guarantee they will last forever.

But any idea why the correlation exists?

Correlation is a measure of relation. Correlation doesn't mean causation.
The price of Bitcoin is not driven by the number of Google searches for Bitcoin. It is the other way round. As the price of Bitcoin increases, more people get interested and the number of searches increases.

[d5000]

The exchange rate is the leader here. The price going up creates more interest and media coverage which therefore leads to more Google searches. I don't think this really tells us anything other than people get very interested in the prospect of getting rich quick.

Fully agree. And I think that behavior is a problem.

First, many of these new users will be terribly "burnt" in the next crash - some, for sure, were already burnt in the $2900 dip, that could have caused them up to 40% losses. A large part of these people will have a hard time to come back. They will think that "Bitcoin is a bubble" and even maybe agree to strict regulations and prohibitions.

Second, this "crowd behavior" exaggerates volatility even more, and new users are also the most prone to panic selling. So it makes Bitcoin harder to use as a currency.

[jtipt]

The exchange rate is the leader here. The price going up creates more interest and media coverage which therefore leads to more Google searches. I don't think this really tells us anything other than people get very interested in the prospect of getting rich quick.

Exactly, anything that is getting popularity will result in more number of Google searches about it. As BTC's price increase its getting popular, people hear about the hike in price and go to Google to read about it more.

[TheQuin]

First, many of these new users will be terribly "burnt" in the next crash - some, for sure, were already burnt in the $2900 dip, that could have caused them up to 40% losses. A large part of these people will have a hard time to come back. They will think that "Bitcoin is a bubble" and even maybe agree to strict regulations and prohibitions.

Second, this "crowd behavior" exaggerates volatility even more, and new users are also the most prone to panic selling. So it makes Bitcoin harder to use as a currency.

I do kind of agree with this as it seems logical. But the thing that surprised me is I thought exactly the same twice before. When it hit $200 in spring 2013 and then Mt. Gox broke then crashed back to under $100 and then again with the big run up to over $1000 later in the year. If it was just a mania then I would expect one bust to be enough to finish it off. But each time Bitcoin has bounced back and done it again.
 

[Herbert2020]

Correlation doesn't mean relation and there is no guarantee they will last forever.

But any idea why the correlation exists?

whenever price rises the media goes crazy about it, i even saw bitcoin on the front page of major news papers. i think it was once on front page of NewYork Times or something like that. that obviously piques interest of people who in turn will start searching about bitcoin. and there is obviously more adoption and more investors coming in who will search about bitcoin to learn more about what it is, where to buy, where to sell, how to store,...

also whenever there is a rise there is a reason for it. and that reason usually increases the activity too. people search for that reason like the halving of last year.

[Yuuto]

Not surprising at all. When price of bitcoin goes up that generates media coverage which in turn fuels even more price growth. It is a positive feedback loop that ends up with more bitcoin news being covered in the media and price of bitcoin going up.

It should be close to a 100% correlation.

Though the fact that it's at 91% is because sometimes negative news do occur, and this graph only takes into account the volume of searches and not the positivity of the news articles. I think that in the next few weeks/months we will see a spike in searches for bitcoin once again, and that will bring prices up to around $5000.

[goldade]

I really don't see how this qualifies as news when every site you will be referred to get news about bitcoin will quote it for you whether you even wanted to see it or not. And Google itself will even show it for you as one of the first line items you will see on any search of bitcoin. So, they made it that way and there is no need to still make noise about it.

[InvoKing]

I really don't see how this qualifies as news when every site you will be referred to get news about bitcoin will quote it for you whether you even wanted to see it or not. And Google itself will even show it for you as one of the first line items you will see on any search of bitcoin. So, they made it that way and there is no need to still make noise about it.

The correlation between the bitcoin exchange rate and the bitcoin search volume could be explained by the more people discovering bitcoin the more thvey got envolved in these activities. Or simply the more bitcoin exchange rate we have, the more people discovered bitcoin and start searching and learning about it.

[timerland]

The media has a very strong hold or influence over the bitcoin price and it comes without saying that the times people are most interested in bitcoin comes when media coverage is high and demand is high, and this drives price up.

As the old saying goes, "buy the rumor sell the news". When there is virtually nobody interested in covering bitcoin, that's the time to buy.

Really makes me think whether or not we are beginning to fall in price. I hope not, obviously. But media coverage growth has slowed down and there are a lot of negative coverage as well.