Bubbles: Tulip Mania, Dot.Com and Bitcoin

[bubble1]

Many online and mainstream media press comments refer to Cryptocurrencies as bubbles.

The most often quoted are the Dutch Tulip Mania and the Dot Com bubbles.

Tulip bulbs serve only 1 purpose - growing flowers. They have no use as money - ie store of wealth, medium of exchange etc. Tulip Mania was a true bubble driven by speculation. It was a Ponzi scheme, which collapsed. A few people made huge sums, but many people lost all their savings.

The Dot Com bubble was a different. Up to 90% of the Dot Com startups were cash burners, having no business model, and no value. Was it a Ponzi scheme? Probably not. Again, a few people made huge sums, but many people lost all their savings. But, a few Dot Coms had genuine prospects, and some of these have grown into tremeandously valuable FAANG companies.

Cryptocurrencies, and especially ICOs are very like Dot Com. 90% will fail. A few will grow into big players by providing innovative and valuable solutions.

Bitcoin is definitely not a bubble, because it is like money and is a store of wealth, medium of exchange etc. Also, it is already providing innovative and valuable solutions, like hedge against hyperinflation, and independence of Central Bank control.

Is BC overpriced? Maybe.

Is BC underpriced? Maybe.

Is BC's price rise currently speculation driven? Probably.

Will the price of BC decline, short term? Probably

Will its price drip to zero (like tulips)? Definitely not

Will it be here in 20 years? Definitely.

Will it still be valuable in 20 years? Absolutely

[talkbitcoin]

the rise of bitcoin this year was unexpected and it broke the previously perfect trend of rising about 100% to 200% per year. now it is about 600% rise this year. that is why many think this can be a bubble. of course there are many who are afraid of bitcoin and want it to fail so they intentionally call it bubble to create fear in the market a much as they can.

i liked your final questions and the answers. that is also what i believe. although we usually call it BTC not BC
i think there may be some downtime soon but it will not be a bubble but a correction.

[worldofcoins]

Many online and mainstream media press comments refer to Cryptocurrencies as bubbles.

The most often quoted are the Dutch Tulip Mania and the Dot Com bubbles.

Tulip bulbs serve only 1 purpose - growing flowers. They have no use as money - ie store of wealth, medium of exchange etc. Tulip Mania was a true bubble driven by speculation. It was a Ponzi scheme, which collapsed. A few people made huge sums, but many people lost all their savings.

The Dot Com bubble was a different. Up to 90% of the Dot Com startups were cash burners, having no business model, and no value. Was it a Ponzi scheme? Probably not. Again, a few people made huge sums, but many people lost all their savings. But, a few Dot Coms had genuine prospects, and some of these have grown into tremeandously valuable FAANG companies.

Cryptocurrencies, and especially ICOs are very like Dot Com. 90% will fail. A few will grow into big players by providing innovative and valuable solutions.

Bitcoin is definitely not a bubble, because it is like money and is a store of wealth, medium of exchange etc. Also, it is already providing innovative and valuable solutions, like hedge against hyperinflation, and independence of Central Bank control.

Is BC overpriced? Maybe.

Is BC underpriced? Maybe.

Is BC's price rise currently speculation driven? Probably.

Will the price of BC decline, short term? Probably

Will its price drip to zero (like tulips)? Definitely not

Will it be here in 20 years? Definitely.

Will it still be valuable in 20 years? Absolutely

They really do not grasp the understanding of what Bitcoin is and the blockchain.  There basing a tulip just because price is going up instead of trying to learn what is making it seem so valuable.  They are biased because they feel like the are missing out, its human to feel this way.  The people that think this way.  Also you seem to be answering your own questions, but the part where you say BTC is driven by price speculation, you must not be keeping up with current events.  I advise you too google CME Group bitcoin futures so you can learn what that is.  

[valentin68]

I have said this before I am repeating. The bitcoin future, and the bitcoin price depend on the poeple that accepts it as being good for payments. I accepted bitcoin for payment of my earnings, many other people have done this. I could have accepted for my earnings to be paid in USD, instead of this I preferred the bitcoin. I do not know what is the future of bitcoin, what will its price be in the next year, if it will go up, or if it will go down, what I can say is that I am making everything I can for the bitcoin to value to go up. These things depends on us, all poeple that use the bitcoin, all people that accept it.

[Reatim]

You have raised a lot of questions but the main thing here is that bitcoin is here to stay. As much as many mainstream media has compared bitcoin to tulip mania, dot.com bubble, we can't really tell because the price has continue to rise. And bitcoin has defy a lot of basic economic laws, TA, so its really hard to tell if its really a bubble. I guess when it will burst then we can say its a bubble, but for now we just enjoy the ride and take the problem once it has presented itself.

[lucifochrome]

You are right about that, this is not a bubble this is money right here. Money don't just pop and then gone. Bitcoin is here to stay. Others think that this is bubble but the thing is if bitcoin is a bubble it will only pop if there is no support from the people but as of the moment more and more people are aware of bitcoin's existence, they wanted to join in and from here it will be so much better. Price will still go on a rise but we have to watch out for the correction, it happens every time. It happened back then and it will happen again. It does happen to the stock market and bitcoin is not exempted to that.

[HashFace]

Tulip mania wasn't a Ponzi Scheme... it was just a bad investment.  Ponzi means old investors are paid off with money from new investors, to give the appearance of a monthly return, but in reality, there is no investment at all, just shuffling money around.  So, like Tulip Mania and The DotCom bubble, bitcoin can't be a Ponzi because there is no one offering huge returns or monthly payments, who is going to disappear with most of the "investment" money.

[bubble1]

Tulip mania wasn't a Ponzi Scheme... it was just a bad investment.  Ponzi means old investors are paid off with money from new investors, to give the appearance of a monthly return, but in reality, there is no investment at all, just shuffling money around.  So, like Tulip Mania and The DotCom bubble, bitcoin can't be a Ponzi because there is no one offering huge returns or monthly payments, who is going to disappear with most of the "investment" money.

Quite right, Tulip Mania was not Ponzi. I stand corrected.

[Ucy]

This is a fact which I see nothing wrong in. Some are making it look like every idea is meant to be successful. Even companies or governments spend billions of dollars testing different ideas & having a success rate of 5 — 15% . It's called Experimentation and is absolutely normal.

Companies going through ICOs  are simply testing out their ideas which they will definitely need funding to execute or use volunteers (the unsustainable approach) like Satoshi did or even seek for donations.

What is important is that scam projects are identified on this forum and removed(I doubt Google does thesame thing) and people with real ideas are allowed to raise funds.
In the end, some projects will fail and some will succeed.

[jseverson]

I completely agree. The tulip bulb mania is only really comparable because of the price increase and is completely different otherwise. Bitcoin has real world uses and can provide solutions to real world problems. That makes it similar to the dot com bubble in a sense that it is legitimate if used correctly. It's not worthless as other critics like to say.

There are also people who say that Bitcoin is pretty much just a mania. It isn't. It's only reached a very small fraction of the population thus far. That means demand could and will grow much more. Explosive growth doesn't always mean fad.

[AlexM]

Tulips are pretty.

Will the price of Bitcoin decline short term? Maybe. It is just as likely to increase in the short term.

[cunese]

The other two can not compare with bitcoin at all. Bitcoin has the technology, high computational power and international recognition. Therefore, the bitcoin price may be a little higher, but it can not be said to be a bubble.

[Phalo]

Unfortunately noone knows when in a bubble.. Everyone has to wait till it bursts to know. Do I think Bitcoin is in a bubble? Absolutely not. I think we still have a couple of years to reach that stage. You know what they say, you know you are in a bubble when grandma wants to to start investing in bitcoins. I don't think we are there yet.