Block Erupter USB owners won't make ROI???

[lazydna]

At 2% compounded weekly difficulty growth, the stick could make 2.8 BTC over 2 years
At 4% compounded weekly difficulty growth,  the stick could make 1.5 BTC over 2 years
At 6% compounded weekly difficulty growth, the stick could make 1.05BTC over 2 years

(Assuming you received the stick latest by next week)

It's up to individual to look at historical difficulty growth rate, and pick a growth forecast that you believe in.

can I see your spread sheet?
my calculations are
no electricity cost, no pool fee, no unexpected down time.
5% raised diff every 11days.

you will never hit 2.2BTC before it costs you more to run 3 watts
the last 12 cycles average is 17% and the most important 12 cycles because we're moving from GPU to ASICS.
with new price 0.99btc.
much better, at 10% diff, you will still profit @ jun 10'14 and return 0.02BTC running till Nov 2014. not counting fee's and electricity.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0

@ 2% 'weekly', 7 days, you still won't make more then 1.86BTC till Nov'2014 and at that point,t he residual will be so small you'll never make it to 1.9BTC.

[SGExodus]

can I see your spread sheet?
my calculations are
no electricity cost, no pool fee, no unexpected down time.
5% raised diff every 11days.

you will never hit 2.2BTC before it costs you more to run 3 watts
the last 12 cycles average is 17% and the most important 12 cycles because we're moving from GPU to ASICS.
with new price 0.99btc.
much better, at 10% diff, you will still profit @ jun 10'14 and return 0.02BTC running till Nov 2014. not counting fee's and electricity.

In my simple model, I just use a Geometric Series model:



where a = Initially weekly earning , and r =  ( 100% - weekly growth % ) and n = number of weeks

Could also do a = hourly earning and r = ( 100% - daily growth %) and n = number of days

** r will a number between 0 and 1 , i.e.   for 2% growth, r = 0.98 , for 4% growth, r = 0.96 etc. **

I also have more optimistic model where we can vary the growth %, such as tapering off every few weeks.

[superresistant]

You can always resell that USB miner on ebay.
Instant ROI.

well BA BAM, they just dropped the price down to .99btc.
so if you wanted to pass the ball to the next schmuck I suggest you do it now.

and at .99btc, you still won't make ROI.

I don't have any USB miner but I believe you can make descent money reselling them.
It's like the gold rush : the miners get poor, the guys that build hotels or sell tools for them get rich.

[Amph]

correct price should be 0.25btc, aka 1 month roi

[Rampion]

correct price should be 0.25btc, aka 1 month roi

Pretty much this.

[jspielberg]

For what it is worth... The K1's returned their first nonces this morning (incorrect values, but I imagine that will be fixed shortly).  I believe K1 are slated to be sold around the price mentioned.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=190731.msg2565835#msg2565835

[ScaryHash]

New group buy price for the USB block erupters is about 1 btc (not advertising for them, just sayin).

So, at the new price, assuming starting current difficulty, you'll make 1 btc in 5-6 months, depending on difficulty increases all the way to 40 million ish...

After that, my crystal ball gets cloudy, grasshopper.

[jspielberg]

5-6 months, depending on difficulty increases all the way to 40 million ish...

Well, my crystal ball predicts 150-200mil in 5 months.

I am projecting around the same... 200mil beginning of November

[k9quaint]

New group buy price for the USB block erupters is about 1 btc (not advertising for them, just sayin).

So, at the new price, assuming starting current difficulty, you'll make 1 btc in 5-6 months, depending on difficulty increases all the way to 40 million ish...

After that, my crystal ball gets cloudy, grasshopper.

BFL orders alone will move the network hash rate from 150TH to 450TH.
(cue laugh track) BFL says they will clear that backlog by mid September.
That means we go from 19 million to 57 million roughly 3 months from BFLs contribution.
250TH of Avalon Klondike devices are on their way.
Bitfury's chip has been seen, KNCMiner is also in the mix for mid September.
I think your projection of 40 million difficulty at the end of 5 months is optimistic.

[superresistant]

New group buy price for the USB block erupters is about 1 btc (not advertising for them, just sayin).

So, at the new price, assuming starting current difficulty, you'll make 1 btc in 5-6 months, depending on difficulty increases all the way to 40 million ish...

After that, my crystal ball gets cloudy, grasshopper.

BFL orders alone will move the network hash rate from 150TH to 450TH.
(cue laugh track) BFL says they will clear that backlog by mid September.
That means we go from 19 million to 57 million roughly 3 months from BFLs contribution.
250TH of Avalon Klondike devices are on their way.
Bitfury's chip has been seen, KNCMiner is also in the mix for mid September.
I think your projection of 40 million difficulty at the end of 5 months is optimistic.

There will not be any change with or without BFL, they are using it already.

[SilentSonicBoom]

New group buy price for the USB block erupters is about 1 btc (not advertising for them, just sayin).

So, at the new price, assuming starting current difficulty, you'll make 1 btc in 5-6 months, depending on difficulty increases all the way to 40 million ish...

After that, my crystal ball gets cloudy, grasshopper.

I would estimate 1-2 years return on investment. And yes, I started a group buy just tonight in my signature. Difficulty will be crazy with all the Avalons, BFL, kncminer, TerraHash, AsicMiner, AMC, klondikes, bitfury, etc. etc. coming online by years end. Also, what VC money is being done in private to mine that the average guy knows nothing about. Then again, maybe bitcoin prices in ALL currencies will begin to rise.

[joae1975]

New group buy price for the USB block erupters is about 1 btc (not advertising for them, just sayin).

So, at the new price, assuming starting current difficulty, you'll make 1 btc in 5-6 months, depending on difficulty increases all the way to 40 million ish...

After that, my crystal ball gets cloudy, grasshopper.

I would estimate 1-2 years return on investment. And yes, I started a group buy just tonight in my signature. Difficulty will be crazy with all the Avalons, BFL, kncminer, TerraHash, AsicMiner, AMC, klondikes, bitfury, etc. etc. coming online by years end. Also, what VC money is being done in private to mine that the average guy knows nothing about. Then again, maybe bitcoin prices in ALL currencies will begin to rise.

A sh*t storm is coming and it's going to be like Cypress all over the world.  imho

[TObject]

I quickly checked Block Erupter eBay listings. It appears that none of the currently active ones are from repeat [Block Erupter] sellers.

Does eBay ban people for listing mining equipment?

[Bitweasil]

Does eBay ban people for listing mining equipment?

It's mostly PayPal, and, yes, they do shake people down pretty hard for selling mining hardware or anything at all bitcoin related.

[joae1975]

Can get them from www.bitmit.net for 1.19 BTC