Help me help you. A new beginning.

[MrSwordFish]

I ain't gonna write my life story on here but to make it short I've always had an interest in market analysis and economics in general but only as a hobby, not as a profession or anything. As a physics major getting a minor in computer science I have little to no background on how to make a forecast of my own (the only thing I have under my belt is intrductory micro/macro economics).

So here I am looking for either someone to be my mentor or at least someone to point me in the right direction to get some good concise knowledge and how to apply it (books are ok but online resources would be great).

Thank you for your time.

[robamichael]

I am not claiming to be a skillful forecaster, but I will give you my 2 cents.

I believe that any worthwhile forecasting should be based off of fundamentals, and while technical analysis is interesting, it is ultimately not a reliable method of prediction.

By technical analysis, I am especially point out that there are plenty of "chartists" who believe they can understand market forces by looking at patterns in charts. I don't mean to start a flame war, but I believe that the chances of understanding complex market forces simply by reading lines in a chart is akin to predicting someones future by reading the lines of a palm.

For me, the largest moves in BTC will correlate with global geopolitical events, namely the state of the global economy, and how governments react or preemptively act to influence the use of Bitcoin.

[vokain]

I am not claiming to be a skillful forecaster, but I will give you my 2 cents.

I believe that any worthwhile forecasting should be based off of fundamentals, and while technical analysis is interesting, it is ultimately not a reliable method of prediction.

By technical analysis, I am especially point out that there are plenty of "chartists" who believe they can understand market forces by looking at patterns in charts. I don't mean to start a flame war, but I believe that the chances of understanding complex market forces simply by reading lines in a chart is akin to predicting someones future by reading the lines of a palm.

For me, the largest moves in BTC will correlate with global geopolitical events, namely the state of the global economy, and how governments react or preemptively act to influence the use of Bitcoin.

this. just don't let others' charts  mar how you assess the overall picture. don't forget that you are a market maker, not a market easy target.

[Komodorpudel]

I am not claiming to be a skillful forecaster, but I will give you my 2 cents.

I believe that any worthwhile forecasting should be based off of fundamentals, and while technical analysis is interesting, it is ultimately not a reliable method of prediction.

By technical analysis, I am especially point out that there are plenty of "chartists" who believe they can understand market forces by looking at patterns in charts. I don't mean to start a flame war, but I believe that the chances of understanding complex market forces simply by reading lines in a chart is akin to predicting someones future by reading the lines of a palm.

For me, the largest moves in BTC will correlate with global geopolitical events, namely the state of the global economy, and how governments react or preemptively act to influence the use of Bitcoin.

+1

Open an (Demo) Account at your favourite broker and have a look at charts or market behavior during important news. ( You don't get successful by reading something)

here you have a (simple)economic calendar: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

or start here: http://www.babypips.com/school/ to learn a bit about TA.

Honestly, to make money in forex market is the most difficult but you can apply the TA-knowlege to stocks/CFD/options..... But TA is only clever to use for entrys or exits in a small timeframe, on a larger timescale fundamentals are more important.( my opinion)


 

[MrSwordFish]

Thanks for the input guys.

I completely agree that events(political or whatever would be appropriate for BTC) are quite important in general,more so in the long-run, but I still think it would be worth it to understand the world through the eyes of the "chartist" and in that respect I'd like to know if some of you guys have recommended readings.

And to be frank I am interested in day trading so knowing how to interpret short-term trends in times when there are few events(or they aren't creating the largest impact) would be a great asset.

Thank you for the links, much appreciated. If any of you guys have good news outlets feel free to post em, I will bookmark them and try to read em daily. Same with any TA related articles, I will store them for later reading.