The delay values are just "guesses"... They are not "absolute"... as mentioned, they aim for a 90% confidence interval... However, the Bitcoin network is very dynamic... there are always transactions being added, some being dropped and others being confirmed into blocks.
If you're looking for FAST confirmation, then you need to pay attention to the value that it says in the "Which fee should I use?" section. Your fee equates to 22 sats/byte... the recommended fees have been over 300 sats/byte for over a week now due to the large number of unconfirmed transactions in the mempool. Another useful site is:
https://btc.com/stats/unconfirmed-txWhat does the delay mean?
The delay shown here is the predicted number of blocks the transactions will take to confirm. If a transactions are predicted to have a delay between 1-3 blocks, there is a 90% chance that they will be confirmed within that range (around 10 to 30 minutes).
Transactions with higher fees will often have 0 delay, which means they will likely be confirmed with the next block (usually around 5-15 minutes).
How is the delay predicted?
The predictions are based on blockchain data of the last 3 hours, as well as the current pool of unconfirmed transactions (mempool).
First, a likely future mempool and miner behavior is predicted using Monte Carlo simulation. From the simulations, it can be seen how fast transactions with different fees are likely to be included in the upcoming blocks.
The predicted delay shown here is chosen to represent a 90% confidence interval.
