What difficulty does it become impossible to make ROI?

[jeremysmith]

Assuming you paid $1,333 for a 60 GH miner, and assuming BTC is worth $100, what difficulty would you have to receive the miner to make a full Return on Investment in under 6 months?

200 million difficulty?  300 million ?  400 million?

edit:  forgot to mention, assume free electricity

[jeremysmith]

According to http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit, I can make $1,320 in 6 months at a difficulty of 370 million, with 60 GH/s, so I guess 370 million is the answer?


Anyone want to guess when we'll have 300+ million difficulty?

[RandomQ]

@ 400 million difficulty after 6 months your ROI @$100 per coin and no power cost is $1215
@ 300 million $1621

with a 0.61 Profitability decline per year

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

[jeremysmith]

@ 400 million difficulty after 6 months your ROI @$100 per coin and no power cost is $1215
@ 300 million $1621

with a 0.61 Profitability decline per year

http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

The big question is when will we see these difficulties?

[128bpm]

I think that's what you have to determine yourself to determine whether you want to get into mining.  The thing I'd look at primarily is the amount of ASICs being sold.  Can you estimate how many ASIC mining machines are being sold by the various companies?  Can you estimate when they'll ship/come online?  If so, you should be able to build a basic model of what you think the difficulty will be going into the future.

[bitcoindigi]

TBH, I'd rather buy the bitcoins now. Probably the safest route.