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从三次暴跌说起,为什么说买比特币很难赚钱?
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Topic: 从三次暴跌说起,为什么说买比特币很难赚钱? (Read 103 times)
didiksky
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从三次暴跌说起,为什么说买比特币很难赚钱?
December 20, 2017, 04:58:27 AM
#1
过去几个月最火的一类资产叫比特币,仅仅在今年比特币涨幅20倍,而过去八年比特币的涨幅超过了2200万倍。越来越多质疑比特币泡沫的人被打脸,但更多的人以一种旁观者眼光,等待着比特币泡沫最终破灭。如同每一次大泡沫的来临一样,人们总是会看到一轮疯狂的造福运动。
全球40%的比特币控制在几千人手里,造就了一批又一批的亿万富翁。今天我们聊聊过去三次重大的比特币市场回调,看看比特币的造福神话中,究竟有多少毁灭财富的灾难。从中我们也能明白,投机资产的大涨行情,是大多数人无法真正赚到钱的。
2011年的崩盘
2011年开始的时候,比特币还只有0.3美元/币,到了6月8日那天触达到了31.5美元/币,在半年不到就取得了105倍的涨幅。然后不到一个月的时间内,比特币就暴跌到了11美元/币,再过了一个月不到又下跌到了7.8美元/币,然后继续回落到4.77美元/逼。也就是说,在90天的时间内,比特币暴跌了85%。
下图是当时整个比特币暴跌的过程,由于没有一个定价体系的“锚”,最初的比特币更多是流动性驱动。跌幅最大的一天是见顶之后,当天跌幅超过30%。在整个下跌过程中,一共有七天比特币的单日跌幅超过20%。整个下跌过程持续了3个月才真正见底。90天时间跌幅85%,相信大部分人都无法再坚定持有了。
2013 年的两次崩盘
来到2013年,比特币再次在这一年涨幅超过100倍,但其中也出现了两次暴跌,特别是第二次暴跌用了好几年才修复。而中国大妈其实就是在2013年开始参与比特币的,当时我做机构销售的时候,也在年中写了关于比特币的文章。可以说,2013年的那次100倍暴涨,以及之后的大跌,让比特币真正进入了大众视野。我们先看看比特币在2013年全年的走势图:
第一张图我们可能看着不觉得很严重,Crash 1仅仅是一次小幅调整。但是近距离观察,却是不折不扣的暴跌。当时在触及到266美元/币的高点后,比特币在三天之内暴跌77.4%,下跌到了54.25美元/币。虽然我们从上面的大图看到,经过了几个月的调整,比特币价格最终修复失地,再次创新高。但是,三天跌幅77%。任何“价值投资者”都要被震出去了。。。下图是暴跌放大的图,我们看到没有回调的三天大跌。
接下来则是2013年的Crash 2,也是比特币历史上最毁灭财富的一次下跌。之前我说过,2013年比特币的暴涨开始吸引大量的“人民币玩家”入场。甚至开玩笑的说,中国大妈开始入场扫货了,带动了2013年那波比特币的“主升浪”。但是到了12月5日,以中国央行为首的监管部门联合印发《关于防范比特币风险的通知》。
freehero
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Re: 从三次暴跌说起,为什么说买比特币很难赚钱?
December 20, 2017, 06:24:20 AM
#2
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从三次暴跌说起,为什么说买比特币很难赚钱?
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