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美元延续弱势 投资者可做多黄金
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Topic: 美元延续弱势 投资者可做多黄金 (Read 87 times)
buydog
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美元延续弱势 投资者可做多黄金
December 26, 2017, 10:31:45 AM
#1
美国减税尘埃落定,美元短线表现却比较弱。然而,近期美元经济基本面却有比较多的积极信号,故美元此轮跌势或难持久,可能不久后即重拾升势。本周节假模式会持续至元旦之后,故这段时期市场的波动比较难测,故有意做多美元者不宜操之过急,渐渐布局较为合适。
01
美元表现疲弱
上周美国减税最终获得成功,然而美元却“见光死”。北京时间本周一17:06,美元指数暂报93.228点,接近两周来的最低点。不过,美元跌幅比较可控,并未出现“兵败如山倒”情况。
特朗普支持的税改对美元利好是实实在在的,这将显著增加美联储加息压力,只是市场交易行为中早包含了这一预期,所以美元走得稍弱。
高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius上周五发过一份研报显示,美国劳动力市场的余量,无论如今还有多少,到2019年都将被消除,届时失业率将降至3.3%这一几十年来不曾有过的水平,从而为美联储提供继续加息理由。
美国劳动力市场原本就较紧,因失业率已降至4.1%,甚至低于金融危机前的水平,只是薪资增长及物价水平不高。从经济增长来说,前期公布的第三季度GDP水平也比较好,创两年来最优水平。
经济情况显然不错,似乎减税的必要性暂时不大,这与美国中期选举即将到来,其本能上应有较强的取悦选民动机。
美元短期内仍可能延续弱势格局,下跌空间不大,虽然投资者暂时倾向于获利回吐,但市场更多只是技术性走势。就操作而言,岁末年初多节假日,投资者理应提防低流动性所带来的意外波动。到了明年年初,投资者应可择机做多美元。
加税对经济短期刺激是相当明确的,是没什么悬念的,至于赤字是否失控却需要时间证实或证伪,故在减税实际之际,美元将大概率走强。
02
欧元有所走强
当美元多头见利好获利了结时,非美货币自然较强,这也包括欧元。本周一同上时间,欧元暂报1.1874美元,接近三周来最高水平。
今年以来,欧元区整体经济情况较好,通胀也有显著回升,但仍达不到欧洲央行2%的目标值。在欧洲央行量化宽松方面,欧洲央行已调整了购债计划,但该调整对欧元支撑暂较有限,一方面延长购债期限,另一方面又调降单月购债额。
欧元未来更大的支撑可能来自其单方向削减购债额度,市场对此也有预期,只是该预期暂不是很强。
对于2018年欧元走势,预计仍呈震荡格局,单边走强难度很大,即使欧洲央行削减购债额度,但与美联储“既缩表又加息”的行为显然不一致。
从英国脱欧情况看,结局也许不像此前部分市场人士预计的那么糟糕,这种情况下欧元区部分主张独立的政党在未来可能具有更多的民意支持。
03
黄金震荡向上
在美联储宣布加息后,黄金几乎复制了前两年的走势,即在12月的加息消息落定后走强。
COMEX黄金期货上周五上涨每盎司9.2美元至每盎司1279.1美元,创自12月5日以来新高。本周一西方休市,黄金暂无报价,但其他国家的黄金交易品种仍然有交易(如上海期货交易所的黄金),其走势仍呈强势。
金价上涨除与美元下跌相关外,也与以下几个因素相关:
一是现货黄金需求有提升机会,这主要表现在中国需求旺季将到,还表现在印度需求有望回升。
二是部分敏感地区地缘政治不稳。
三是上周五西班牙加泰罗尼亚大选结果显示主张独立的党派胜出,这对马德里当局造成严重打击。
四是比特币“疑似崩盘”。这里之所以加上“疑似”两字,原因是历史上比特币这样的跌速并不乏见,往往很快又创出新高。虽然如此,至少短期内比特币走势是惨烈的,这显然也是黄金利好,因为比特币一度被部分投资者视为黄金的替代品。
五是数周前黄金累积的空单极多,这些空单在技术上存在止损机会,而这显然是助涨的。
预计未来金价还可能反复上冲,其震荡向上至1300美元高位是大概率事件,因为上述利好的确多。操作方面,如果投资者持有多单,暂时不应松手;如果没有多单,可等其上涨12天后且有所回落时介入。
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