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私募基金“草莽时代”即将终结
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Topic: 私募基金“草莽时代”即将终结 (Read 101 times)
makenum
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私募基金“草莽时代”即将终结
December 28, 2017, 08:38:13 AM
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证监会近日专门部署2017年专项执法行动第四批案件,严厉打击私募基金领域违法违规行为。目前,相关调查工作已全面展开,一些神龙见首不见尾的神秘“牛散”、庄家也遭到重罚。
在股市严监管的背景下,监管部门“出拳”非法私募,标志着一个乱打涨停板、操纵股价的私募江湖“古惑仔”时代的结束——告别游资江湖“草莽时代”,以阳光化、大型化、重视价值投资与投研能力为特征的私募基金2.0时代正式开启。
此前,处在初创期的私募基金募资乱象丛生,特别是一些小私募,存在违规冲业绩、冲规模现象。由于私募基金,特别是股票基金创始人构成复杂,不少私募基金是由当初的游资敢死队、牛散甚至论坛名博、大V发展而来,盈利模式和交易策略带有典型的“草莽投资时代”特点:手段激进,搏命式投资,也极易突破合规底线。12月1日,基金业协会公布了第17批拟失联私募名单,其中,涉5亿元投资的北京旗隆及其母公司前海旗隆并未在基金业协会登记备案。
多年来,“最牛散户”在A股市场普遍受到吹捧,小散资产膨胀为亿万富豪被描述为“励志故事”广为流传,甚而成为众多散户顶礼膜拜的“股神”。这些“牛散”诞生于A股成长初期“草莽时代”。初创期,股票和各类金融产品快速扩容,金融创新不断,市场在躁动中快速发展。同时,市场法治化、国际化发育不成熟,难免泥沙俱下。
不少牛散,实际靠市场操纵起家。不仅如此,他们已经从早期的庄股、长庄进化为“短庄”,操纵行为日益短线化,即操纵周期由以往跨年、跨月向数天甚至日内操纵发展,操纵的“建仓、拉抬、出货”三阶段被压缩在一起,阶段间界限越来越隐蔽。牛散“短庄”式操纵,建立在蒙蔽散户,吸引散户跟风的基础上。某种程度上,没有“傻散”,就没有“牛散”。
除了早起的涨停板敢死队,另有佛山帮、温州帮、宜昌帮、山东帮等游资在A股市场兴风作浪,导致妖股频出,收割了一批批韭菜。在监管风暴下,先有“股神”徐翔走下神坛,后有“荣超一哥”徐留胜被罚。如今,私募基金已成长为可与公募基金并驾齐驱的市场力量。到11月底,私募管理人为2.18万家,备案基金6.46万只,总规模高达10.9万亿元。
既然如此,私募基金2.0时代又将如何?笔者以为,将呈现以下三点趋势:
一是两极分化。大型私募基金将占据主导地位,投研能力、管理能力差的小型私募将逐渐淘汰出局。在10.9万亿私募规模中,证券私募规模2.28万亿元,较去年底缩水了4861亿元,缩水近18%。部分私募规模下降,原因是遭遇了净赎回。与此同时,资金不断向大私募集聚,管理规模在100亿及以上的有185家,比去年底增加了52家。
二是随着IPO常态化,创投机构退出渠道畅通,股权创投私募崛起。目前,股权创投私募规模6.93万亿元,今年增长48%。
三是私募基金将越来越重视价值投资与投研能力,私募越来越阳光化,过去打涨停板擦边球、伪市值管理等盈利模式将逐渐被摒弃。操作风格将更偏向于中长线价值投资,“草莽时代”的过度投机风格,也将逐渐成为历史。
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