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有色金属缘何“内弱外强”
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Topic: 有色金属缘何“内弱外强” (Read 133 times)
linlin69708
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有色金属缘何“内弱外强”
January 05, 2018, 12:35:56 PM
#1
2017年,有色金属一改2016年“内强外弱”格局,演变为“内弱外强”,LME金属(除三个月锡价之外)的走势比沪市有色金属要强。笔者认为,有色金属走势强弱分化主要与经济复苏步伐不同、供需主要矛盾切换和人民币汇率三个因素变化有很大关系。2018年,伴随地产和基建投资增速回落,国内主动补库可能变为被动累库,最终需求走弱会拖累整体有色价格表现。
宏观方面,从2008年金融危机以来,全球经济复苏或者增长的步伐就出现明显的分化。发达国家中美国率先实施QE,最先企稳复苏,欧元区在金融危机之后还遭遇欧债危机直到2017年经济才有起色。
中国经济在2009年率先走出金融危机冲击,但2011年开始进入转型期,直到2016年由于市场出清和供给侧改革完成产能出清。由此,商品长达四年下跌后首次大规模反弹。不过,2017年开始,中国经济大体持稳,有色金属消费回升力度弱于2016年,其中二季度和四季度,需求端加杠杆放缓一度导致商品大规模回撤。与此同时,11月、12月,欧洲、美国和日本包括制造业PMI继续上升,海外经济复苏向好,助推具备国际定价的LME三个月铜、锌和镍价格明显上涨。对比之下,国内有色金属尽管止跌回升,但涨幅并不如LME的涨幅,主要是中国经济可能再度进入库存去化阶段,全球主要经济体所处的复苏阶段不一致。
基本面上,2017年四季度商品供需矛盾切换,2017年前三季度市场焦点还是在供给端,2017年四季度,市场焦点转向需求。对于有色金属而言,中国对铜的需求在2017年前三季度占全球的50.5%,其他金属消费比重也超过40%,但由于有色金属定价权在LME和COMEX,基金等海外资本因欧美经济复苏对需求乐观,国内需求因季节性淡季,LME有色金属强于沪市金属。
比如铜方面,2017年12月中下旬铜价走势坚挺,超过其他有色金属主要是2017年底废铜进口批文较2016年同期大幅减少,原先铜产业链受环保因素较少,但年底包括铜陵有色30万吨产能受环保问题停产,以及市场传闻江西铜业也因江西省政府文件可能因排污问题而部分产能停产,但这实际是短期性因素,一方面,国内有色冶炼排放等很早就走在环保前列,环保导致大型冶炼企业关停产能尚未有先例,小企业存在这种可能;另一方面,有色金属价格长期还需要看需求。
铝方面,国内供给侧改革、环保限产等因素导致原材料成本一度飙升,但国内需求增速从年初预计的7%左右回落至3%左右,而LME铝价则受益于中国铝材出口放缓的压力(部分铜管半成品铝材变相出口铝锭),但2018年铝制品出口关税降为零,这可能加剧欧盟和美国对铝制品反倾销的压力。
从汇率角度来看,有色金属不仅和美元走势密切相关。随着中国经济在全球比重提升,以及人民币汇率国家化下,有色金属进出口贸易对人民币汇率敏感度增加的情况下,人民币升值,一般意味着有色金属进口购买力增加,进口增加提振国际有色金属价格,对国内而言则是库存累计的压力。因此,2017年人民币兑美元升值大约5.6%左右,沪市有色金属相对于LME有色金属会出现折价情况。
总体来看,有色金属供应端的边际变化也出现分化(供应压缩空间极为有限),但需求端都共同面临因居民、政府和企业稳杠杆或者去杠杆带来的下行风险。而海外经济复苏步伐滞后中国一个季度左右,因此有色金属未来内外价差修复很大可能通过LME补跌方式来完成。
snowlei52189
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Re: 有色金属缘何“内弱外强”
January 05, 2018, 12:47:27 PM
#2
厉害了
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