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2018年是楼市调控的“临界点”
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Topic: 2018年是楼市调控的“临界点” (Read 105 times)
poomwon
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2018年是楼市调控的“临界点”
January 08, 2018, 02:11:46 AM
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“房住不炒”的2018年,国家说要保持调控政策的连续性、稳定性,长效机制要取得实质性进展。不过,尽管短期内广大市民并不看好楼市,但对未来房价上涨的刚性预期,还是很顽固和坚定。笔者认为,调控会不会经历又一个轮回,即在今年下半年或明年“由紧转松”,将是能否打破房价上涨刚性预期的试金石。就像2012年八项规定推行之初,认为改革难持续的观点占据上风,如今看,大家都适应了,备受关注的消费也未受多大影响。2013-2016年,我国限额以上单位耐用品类和非耐用品类零售额年均增速分别为10.4%和9%,旅游、电影等服务消费均翻了一倍以上。
楼市调控也一样,只要保持政策稳定,而因为怕拖累经济和土地财政而松绑,不要给市场以“政府受不了楼市下滑”的信号,房价上涨的刚性预期就会逐渐瓦解。新年第一天,家住在广州的笔者去看房,邻近地铁口的一个SO H O项目,吸引的购房者还真不少。纳闷了,不是不让个人买商业公寓吗,怎么有那么多人?开发商自有办法,购房时出资4800元,帮你注册公司,每年再缴纳2600元的中介做账费用,个人限购商业公寓的政策就轻松突破了。项目挺吸引人,单套建面仅28平方米,公摊后实用面积仅18平方米,但将挑高5米隔空做成夹层,就变成复式结构,实用面积可至36平方米。
踩盘的过程中,售楼小姐不断给你传递利好信号:买房的都是投资客,商业不限购,可买多套;一层变两层,均摊下来一平方米只需1.5万元;两层可以分开出租,收两份租金;购房后可与途家签订5年的“售后返租”协议,前3年每月返租3200元,后两年租金会上涨5%-10%;银行限贷,但可申请第三方金融贷款;2018年下半年,调控政策将放松,到时候将享受新一轮房价上涨收益。现场销控表显示,去年11月25日开盘后,8层以下(价格较低)已经售罄,整个项目500多套的货量,到现在只剩余不到100套了,看来,市场需求还是非常旺盛的。
问题是,投资这样的物业,成本也不低。笔者算了一下,除五成首付(40万),购买后一年内还要缴纳公司注册费、契税、出租前购置家具、物业维修基金等费用,合计达到近8万元。此外,每年公司做账费用、房产税、贷款本息(10%的年化利率)也要5万-6万元。但即便如此,还是有很多人投资,可想而知市场需求是多么旺盛。更为重要的是,旺盛的需求下,调控政策被有意无意突破了,比如个人不能购买商业办公楼宇,禁止“售后返租”,禁止违反建筑规范搭建“夹层”,控制“类住宅”泛滥,禁止通道类资金(影子银行)违规进入房地产等等。
但是,在强大的需求面前,在开发商和地方政府“共赢”的利益面前,该突破的还是突破了。据悉,该项目是片区超大旧改项目的一个小部分,回迁房(占了住房开发的1/3)、历史风貌保护、地标项目、道路建设等花掉开发商很多钱,既然为地方政府、公共服务、片区面貌改善做出巨大贡献,作为交换和成本回笼诉求,地方政府也就要给开发商“开绿灯”,突破一些政策也是应该的。问题是,你这样突破了、他那样突破了(如专科及以上人才购房不受限购限制),调控政策架构也就被冲击得七零八落了,且给市场传达了政府托底楼市、背书房价的不良信号。
当前,房地产在十字路口,一种观点认为,随着房产税、租购并举等长效机制落地,改革的信心和决心空前高涨,楼市将告别短期波动剧烈,走出“屡控屡涨”的怪圈;另一种观点则认为,长效机制以前不是没提过,但在巨大的体制惯性下,楼市是地方政府不能承受之重,这次也难言有何不同。但是,无论从杠杆风险、房价触顶之势看,还是各界对改革的信任成本看,或是更加注重增长质量而非速度的路径转换,缩小贫富差距的改革要求,都不能再容忍房价新一轮上涨了。因此,2018年将是楼市调控的临界点,若挺过去了,整个楼市风气将焕然一新。
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