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加央行料将打响新年加息第一枪
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Topic: 加央行料将打响新年加息第一枪 (Read 66 times)
ojherpeu
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加央行料将打响新年加息第一枪
January 16, 2018, 07:16:27 PM
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加拿大央行(BoC)当地时间17日举行2018年首次货币政策会议。因加拿大经济基本面向好,特别是就业数据喜人,市场预计加拿大央行很可能宣布提高基准利率,为全球主要经济体打响加息第一枪。
根据外媒对市场分析师的调查结果,加拿大央行的加息概率在70%以上,料将提升25个基点,基准利率升至1.25%。在刚刚过去的2017年,加拿大央行加入全球加息阵营并两次加息。
在2017年全球经济呈现普遍增长的背景下,尤其是国际能源价格走出低谷,身为能源大国的加拿大经济也日趋活跃,基本面向好增加了加拿大央行逐渐加息、推动货币政策回归正常化的决心。据《多伦多星报》报道,加拿大央行发布的最新调查显示,加拿大国内商业信心显著增强,企业对未来12个月经营业绩持乐观态度,同时存在增雇人手和追加投资的意愿。年初出席“2018加拿大经济展望论坛”的经济学家们一致认为,加拿大经济在2018年会稳步前行,增长率在1.9%到2.4%之间。国际机构也普遍预计,2018年加拿大经济增长率将在2.2%左右,2019年将达到1.8%,失业率将控制在6%以内,通胀率将接近2%。正因如此,加拿大央行行长保罗茨上个月曾表示,他越来越认为加拿大经济增长无需额外的刺激政策。
加拿大央行在决定是否加息时,还会考虑两个重要因素,一个是通过加息防止房地产市场过热,二是抑制加拿大居民债务进一步膨胀。
2017年以来,加拿大一些地方政府已经出台政策抑制房价涨幅过快,如果加拿大央行再次加息,将对加拿大楼市起到降温作用。加拿大帝国商业银行经济学家本杰明·塔尔认为,加拿大央行提升利率,将考验楼市的承受能力,预计今年一季度楼市成交量将有所下降。统计显示,2017年加拿大房屋均价为49.65万加元,同比增长了5.7%。另有统计显示,2017年第三季度,加拿大家庭债务与收入的比率已经高达171.1%。
也有部分谨慎的分析师认为,加拿大央行本次货币政策会议上将按兵不动。他们认为,加拿大央行需要进一步观察国内通货膨胀走势,还要对本月晚些时候举行的新一轮北美自由贸易协定更新谈判的结果进行评估。加拿大滑铁卢大学经济学教授吉安-保罗·拉姆表示,虽然近期数据显示加拿大就业市场走强,但目前还缺乏足够的通胀指标来支持央行进一步加息,况且目前加拿大经济的下行风险也在增加。
不过,从趋势上看,今年加拿大央行仍处于加息周期之中,无论本次会议是否加息,市场都预测一年之内,加拿大央行至少加息两次,将基准利率推升到1.75%以上,明年第一季度料将继续加息一次。
就风险而言,加拿大丰业银行副总裁兼首席经济学家佩罗指出,美国特朗普政府的对外政策、北美自由贸易协定重新谈判结果、未来将要举行的安省和联邦选举等,对加拿大经济来说都是不确定因素。而蒙特利尔银行首席经济学家波特表示,住房市场走势同样对加拿大经济构成威胁。
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