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梁红:新一轮机构改革加大开放力度
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Topic: 梁红:新一轮机构改革加大开放力度 (Read 32 times)
zengqingrong
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梁红:新一轮机构改革加大开放力度
March 06, 2018, 09:20:41 AM
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十九届三中全会于2月26日至28日召开,开启新一轮党和国家机构改革。3月初即将召开的“两会”将公布今年经济和社会发展目标,确定财政政策和货币政策,安排政府重点工作任务。我们预计2018年经济增长目标、预算赤字率、社会融资总量增速目标基本维持不变,改革开放将加大力度,财政、金融、国企国资等重点领域改革将成为看点。
三中全会开启新一轮机构改革。十九届三中全会审议了党和国家机构改革方案。目前国务院下设办公厅、25个组成部门、1个直属特设机构、15个直属机构、4个办事机构、13个直属事业单位、16个部委管理的国家局和3个议事协调机构(图表1)。从历次国务院机构改革看,国务院组成部门数目有所减少(图表2)。与以往国务院机构改革不同的是,此次党和国家机构改革涉及范围更广、影响更大。我们预计新一轮机构改革将推动简政放权,进一步发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,也有助于抑制机关团体存款过快增长的势头(图表3)。
改革开放力度有望加大。今年是改革开放40周年,中国有望实施更大力度的改革开放。财政方面推出了基本公共服务领域中央与地方共同财政事权和支出责任划分改革方案。金融业将扩大对外开放,大幅度放宽市场准入。国企改革将引入社会资本,推进混合所有制改革,通过市场化债转股等措施降低企业杠杆率。资本市场将改革发行上市制度,继续深化新三板改革。户籍、社保、土地、房地产税等方面改革也值得期待。
预计2018年GDP增长目标仍然维持6.5%左右。从2018年地方政府工作报告看,有15个省区下调了地区生产总值增长目标,15个省区维持2018年增长目标不变,只有山西省上调了增长目标(图表4)。其中,天津将目标增速从8%下调至5%,降幅最大。甘肃、重庆、内蒙古、吉林、西藏下调1个百分点以上。辽宁虽然2017年未完成增长目标、实际增速只有4.2%,但是2018年仍维持6.5%增长目标不变。下调经济增长目标的地区大多未完成2017年目标。考虑全国GDP去年增长6.9%,高于6.5%的目标,我们预计2018年仍将维持6.5%左右的增速目标。
预计预算赤字率仍在3%左右,地方政府债券发行量将增加。去年财政预算安排3%赤字率,其隐含假设低估了最终实现的GDP增长。如果用2.38万亿元预算赤字比上去年实现的GDP,结果为2.9%(图表5)。2018年将继续实施积极的财政政策,预计预算赤字率仍在3%左右,预算赤字可能在2.6万亿元上下。2月8日发改委和财政部联合发布194号文遏制地方政府隐性债务增长,地方政府表外融资将受限,但正规渠道的地方政府债券发行量会增加。地方政府一般债券已经计入一般公共预算赤字。地方政府专项债券发行量扩大则会带动政府性基金预算赤字增长。
M2增速目标重要性下降,预计社会融资总量增速目标仍维持12%左右。2018年继续实施稳健的货币政策。2017年M2增速为8.2%,远低于12%的目标。央行在2017年4季度货币政策执行报告中指出“随着经济结构逐步优化,低一些的货币增速仍能够支持经济实现高质量发展,这也有助于在宏观上实现去杠杆”,“随着金融市场和金融产品更趋复杂,M2 的可测性、可控性及与实体经济的相关性都在下降”。这可能意味着M2增速对货币政策的重要性有所下降。我们认为今年可能会淡化M2增速目标,但社会融资总量增速预期目标预计仍保持12%左右。
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