Bitcointalk stats update - Bubble over?

[dnaleor]

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time...

I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data...


I'll see what I can do

[el_rlee]

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time...

I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data...


I'll see what I can do

A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality.

[smoothie]

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time...

I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data...


I'll see what I can do

A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality.

Have to agree here.

[Keldel]

Interesting chart, thank you!

Maybe bitcoin is just transitioning from an experiment to a real store of wealth for more and more people? Hardly anyone registers on gold forums or googles gold, yet a lot of people trust gold to store their wealth!

I hope one day bitcoin goes down on google trends because everyone just knows about it already!

[wachtwoord]

May I carefully ask of it would be significantly more work to also include bitstamp data?

I can do that, yes. But I've chosen Gox for historical reasons: the data goes back further in time...

I would like to add bitcoinaverage data, but don't find the raw data...


I'll see what I can do

A thousand thanks, Gox price is more and more disconnecting from reality.

Have to agree here.

Come on, it's <13% difference. On the scales depicted the figure this isn't very important.

[dnaleor]

I have found the raw data of bitcoinaverage.com
I'll add a second line on the chart

The regression analysis however will be done with the data of mt gox...

[SheHadMANHands]

OP, where does it say there must exist a consistent, linear relationship between the value of bitcoin and number of new members on a forum board?

It is not consistent, but usually new signups = new interest = more buyers.

Correct me if I'm wrong...  you appear to be comparing the exchange rate of bitcoin graphically with, for example, the rate of new members joining in these forum boards.  I assume by this you mean (new members/day).

Shouldn't you be plotting "total members" verse the bitcoin price, instead of the rate of membership change?

Then you would see that, in recent months, the price has been rising in a relatively linear fashion, as is the number of members.  There's been no exponential growth, as with previous two crashes, to draw the same comparison.  Growth over few months appears more linear.

[dserrano5]

Correct me if I'm wrong...  you appear to be comparing the exchange rate of bitcoin graphically with, for example, the rate of new members joining in these forum boards.  I assume by this you mean (new members/day).

Shouldn't you be plotting "total members" verse the bitcoin price, instead of the rate of membership change?

Then you would see that, in recent months, the price has been rising in a relatively linear fashion, as is the number of members.  There's been no exponential growth, as with previous two crashes, to draw the same comparison.  Growth over few months appears more linear.

The problem with this is that the price can go down, however the number of members "can't".

[dnaleor]

New update
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=308653

Hi people, here is the fresh update of the bitcointalk stats vs bitcoin price.

*I added bitcoinaverage.com data (brown line).
*I left the data for the days of the downtime of the forum "blank" so the chart doesn't show "wild swings"
(I'm very busy atm, so the promised regression analysis isn't yet finished. I hope to get it done for the next update)
 
After the downtime of the forum and TSR closing, Bitcoins seems stronger than ever:
*number of new posts slitly going up
*number of new members stable
*number of new topics stable
*number of pageviews are high, although we should note that this is a volatile number

And... the value of bitcoin is just "flat" for the last 40 days (ignoring the few hours after the takedown of TSR)... Really stable Bitcoin value.

The future looks bright!

Am I too bullish? Have an opinion about these charts? Please post your comments below

Previous discussion: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=292175.0

charts:

"smoothed chart":

raw data link

"smoothed log chart":

raw data link

Feel free to share these charts, but please don't remove the QR-code, thanks!