Hype Indicators for speculative flips - as well as its problems nowadays

[Midoproj]

Cheers Mates,

As it can proof to be profitable in the short term to flip the right ICOs, it is essential to know what works and what doesn't.

To me the most important indicator for a probable flipping candidate is the combination of great hype and low hard cap .

Whereas, it can be relatively easy to determine the hard cap of an ICO (icodrops.com - or better, the whitepaper) - unless they decide to change it in the course of the ICO - the measurement of hype on the other hand can be quite a challenge to identify.

So far checking their twitter, telegram (facebook not so much in my experience) and last but not least, the respective thread in this forum has prooven to be quite reliable. However, lately it has become a trend to force people in the telegram and twitter realm in the channels for the purpose of free airdrops (which is what a lot of people are after - not more), which waters down the reliability of the amount of followers as a hype indicator.
Also, Twitter slowly begins to tackle crypto-related activities on its platform, potentially erasing it as an indicator (e.g. : https://www.coindesk.com/twitter-pledges-action-crypto-scams-account-shadow-bans/ [a lot of thought leaders getting blocked])

These aspects make an estimation of the actual hype around a project increasingly more difficult.

If someone can think of an indicator I overlooked or the solution to one of these problems, I'd appreciate pushing me in the right direction.
Have a good one.

[xiaoyum]

I agree, if overall market cap is lower like 20 million or something and price is cheap, I look for hype over internet. Hype makes coins very valuable people talk "wow how can this coin stay this cheap?" and start buying.

[MoonIsBlue]

What do you understand under low marketcap though? I'm seeing some ICOs that are relatively unknown go 10x on an exchange and they raise 30-50M. I think ICOs just do well when the overall market is doing really well.

[Midoproj]

Hey MoonIsBlue

What do you understand under low marketcap though? I'm seeing some ICOs that are relatively unknown go 10x on an exchange and they raise 30-50M. I think ICOs just do well when the overall market is doing really well.

completely agree - the power of the overall market is undeniable (as we could witness the last two day).

Concerning the Hard Cap itself there are a few factors to take into consideration:

1) As the Hard Cap allows the estimation of the total mcap of a project, it is important to know how much of the total % of tokens the investor is to pay for (let's assume the Hard Cap for 50% ist 15Mil - then the total mcap would be at 30mil) - then it is advisable to compare to projects in the same space and their respective mcap, which allows the estimation of whether or not the demanded sum makes sense (Note here: sometimes tokens are locked away and often not included in the Hard Cap!)

2) It depends on the size of the project - for instance if an entire new blockchain is to be created, then I'd view anything below 35Mil (by now, as trend is clearly pointing towards higher caps...) as appropriate (e.g. take a look at Neuro) - with a plain app this sum would obviously be too high.

Of course there are other factors that also apply to ICOs in general: Teamexperience - Size of the team - Stage of the product (MVP; Alpha; Beta) - Partners - Competition , but describing all of them would blow this thread out of proportion.

Note: This only reflects my personal opinion and experience and is not meant to be taken as a guide or general rule of thumb that promises succes. In fact, feel free to disagree. As everyone should, I always love getting to know a different perspective and learning a thing or two.

Hope everything makes sense. Kind regards