The less you use the network the less load you put on
There's some truth to this. It's one of the natural strengths of the fee market. When demand spikes, fees naturally force users and businesses to be more efficient -- batching transactions, etc.
In that vein, overpaying (because of bad fee estimation) probably has noticeable network effects during periods of congestion. People should consciously consider the urgency of their payments. Don't pay $5 when the toll costs 25 cents.
You're suggesting that only 2 possible patterns in node topology can exist. That's false.
And you've chosen 2 topological examples that might cause a certain rate of failure. You've painted an incredibly biased picture by assuming there are limits that don't exist.
If only handful of well connected nodes with high up-time were to open channels with each other, both your scenarios won't happen.
Topology aside, he's got a point regarding the security model of LN. Parties must be online and private keys are required to update settlement transactions. I guess it worries me to think about Mastercard/Amex-level scale on the back of hot wallets.
