From Bull- to Bearmarket. How? Prognosis(2-6month)

[Polycarpe]

At the moment, the technology is really moving towards the right direction. A lot of the technologies that we have been waiting for are live (LightningNetwork) and some have recently been implemented by big players(SegWit). More great technologies are on the way to feed the bitcoin ecosystem so it can grow even faster, such as the smart contracts on bitcoin blockhain(rootstock).

now the prices are still dropping and it shows to me a clear disconnect between price and technology.

- why is it so? why is the price disconnected from technology at the moment?

Well, my answer to that is pretty easy: a lot of newbies(such as me) have been entering the market rececntly.
Most of them have been entering because of FOMO(such as me).
they just entered the market because they wanted to make fast money. (such as me)
they had no idea about how the market works and about the things they invested in.(from here on i exclude myself )
they were just believing what others where saying.

Now since so much dump money entered the market and pumped the prices to the moon, the early investors started to take their profits and the newbies had their first glimpse of the "news" that the bitcoin community is used to. They heard about hacks, scams(mostly because they are just dump money and freshmeat is easy to rape) and regulations. most newbies had no clue about the assets the were investing in nor about the technologie behind them.

after every peak, there is a drop.

Once we had reached the peak close to 20000usd it was time for the downride.
and you know how it is, every rollercoaster ride needs a downhill part, just because thats the funny part.
but for those who have never been in a rollercoaster it might be a little bit to much.
and for our crypto newbies that bearslide was a infact to much thats what is strongly pulling the markets down.


i think this rollercoaster is far from finding a end and i think the downslide is enough. its time for the next bullphase of this ride.
when i read news about crypto world, i just see a lot of positive feed. all across the board. so why should this end now?
we washed a lot of newbies out and now those who trust in the technology a building the bottomline.
I see a lot of people that have strong believe in this technology.
so ask your self, where is the bottomline, at 5000 or at 200?

i think we have washed a high percentage un unbeliebers out of the market and those who are left right now are more or less the bottomline, the ones who believe in this technology.

what do you think?

[BrewMaster]

the problem with weak hands has always been one of the persisting matters in bitcoin market, that is why so much FUD exists but also i blame exchanges. the orderbooks there is not yet big enough to be able to absorb this kind of manipulation and panic sell. and that is because they are not trusted!

i don't think we will see a bull run this soon but also i don't think there will be any more big drops either. there simply is no more reason for it.

[Polycarpe]

i don't think we will see a bull run this soon but also i don't think there will be any more big drops either. there simply is no more reason for it.

dont you think that the changes in technology LN,RSK,SW could be a reason for a bullrun?

[monkeydominicorobin]

At the moment, the technology is really moving towards the right direction. A lot of the technologies that we have been waiting for are live (LightningNetwork) and some have recently been implemented by big players(SegWit). More great technologies are on the way to feed the bitcoin ecosystem so it can grow even faster, such as the smart contracts on bitcoin blockhain(rootstock).

now the prices are still dropping and it shows to me a clear disconnect between price and technology.

- why is it so? why is the price disconnected from technology at the moment?

Well, my answer to that is pretty easy: a lot of newbies(such as me) have been entering the market rececntly.
Most of them have been entering because of FOMO(such as me).
they just entered the market because they wanted to make fast money. (such as me)
they had no idea about how the market works and about the things they invested in.(from here on i exclude myself )
they were just believing what others where saying.

Now since so much dump money entered the market and pumped the prices to the moon, the early investors started to take their profits and the newbies had their first glimpse of the "news" that the bitcoin community is used to. They heard about hacks, scams(mostly because they are just dump money and freshmeat is easy to rape) and regulations. most newbies had no clue about the assets the were investing in nor about the technologie behind them.

after every peak, there is a drop.

Once we had reached the peak close to 20000usd it was time for the downride.
and you know how it is, every rollercoaster ride needs a downhill part, just because thats the funny part.
but for those who have never been in a rollercoaster it might be a little bit to much.
and for our crypto newbies that bearslide was a infact to much thats what is strongly pulling the markets down.


i think this rollercoaster is far from finding a end and i think the downslide is enough. its time for the next bullphase of this ride.
when i read news about crypto world, i just see a lot of positive feed. all across the board. so why should this end now?
we washed a lot of newbies out and now those who trust in the technology a building the bottomline.
I see a lot of people that have strong believe in this technology.
so ask your self, where is the bottomline, at 5000 or at 200?

i think we have washed a high percentage un unbeliebers out of the market and those who are left right now are more or less the bottomline, the ones who believe in this technology.

what do you think?

You are using stock market terminology even though Bitcoin is not some shares of stock. Please refrain from using brick and mortar babble. Bitcoin is a class of its own.

[BrewMaster]

i don't think we will see a bull run this soon but also i don't think there will be any more big drops either. there simply is no more reason for it.

dont you think that the changes in technology LN,RSK,SW could be a reason for a bullrun?

it is, but the sell pressure is not yet lifted and with all the FUD that is still ongoing it becomes even harder to see a rise for now. i also believe that we also need some accumulation phase before the bull run starts and so far we only had sideways.

[Polycarpe]

You using stock market terminology even though Bitcoin is not some shares of stock. Please refrain from using brick and mortar babble. Bitcoin is a class of its own.

Ahh sry, im pretty new to btctalk.

what terminology do you mean and could you translate them to crypto terminology please?

you mean for example "bull" and "bear"?

[monkeydominicorobin]

You using stock market terminology even though Bitcoin is not some shares of stock. Please refrain from using brick and mortar babble. Bitcoin is a class of its own.

Ahh sry, im pretty new to btctalk.

what terminology do you mean and could you translate them to crypto terminology please?

you mean for example "bull" and "bear"?

Bitcoin doesn't close shop. It is open 24/7. Yet you are using archaic terminology of the sloppy stock market.

[Polycarpe]

You using stock market terminology even though Bitcoin is not some shares of stock. Please refrain from using brick and mortar babble. Bitcoin is a class of its own.

Ahh sry, im pretty new to btctalk.

what terminology do you mean and could you translate them to crypto terminology please?

you mean for example "bull" and "bear"?

Bitcoin doesn't close shop. It is open 24/7. Yet you are using archaic terminology of the sloppy stock market.

sry man i dont get you, i used basic terminology for people with basic understanding of this topic.

if you dont understand anything tell me ill translate it for you

[kimmy724]

Let's face it guys with the meteoric rise of bitcoin last year it is so pretty hard to duplicate that feat. First all eyes on bitcoin for regulations. Second those who were smart enough to cash out during the ATH will not be interested as they have gained so much and be better to hedge over to more stable assets. And last so many altcoins are gearing up for more ecosystem style of crypto currency which is for the long haul.

[Nerman]

This always happen in any type of market. After a bull run you will always see a price correction.ususally this will shake weak hands. Now with bitcoin you can see that the chart are moving sideways, it is accumulating investors, i do not know how long it will last but after that i sure there will be another bull run.

[zhanyiguai261315]

Novice investors are easily affected by the news!

They think it's easy to make money in the digital cryptocurrency market, and panic when it falls.

They will sell their money when the market falls.

A loss of money to escape the digital cryptocurrency market!

[Polycarpe]

Novice investors are easily affected by the news!

They think it's easy to make money in the digital cryptocurrency market, and panic when it falls.

They will sell their money when the market falls.

A loss of money to escape the digital cryptocurrency market!

yes i think too that the news are playing a big role in this game.
and especially the newbies are affected by the media. i think here we come back toi the main problem.
newbies need more trust in the game.

its funny that this whole crypto thing is about solving the "trust problem" and the prices are dropping because the people dont have enough trust. 

[Polycarpe]

the problem with weak hands has always been one of the persisting matters in bitcoin market, that is why so much FUD exists but also i blame exchanges. the orderbooks there is not yet big enough to be able to absorb this kind of manipulation and panic sell. and that is because they are not trusted!

Can you explaine a little bit more about the orderbooks and how they can absorb the weak hands? i never heard about that.

[pitiflin]

You know the prices were actually recovering during the end of Feb and beginning of March until they found out about the Mt. Gox trustee. His shit made things for the worse and ever since bitcoin is failing to recover. Segwit adoption should be helping but apparently there's bigger fish in the market that's sounding off the panic sellers. We need something big so that the prices can recover. Hopefully we can see that by the beginning of April this year.