The ever-increasing level of difficulty

[puze]

I posted this on IRC earlier but got no reply.

I asked the bot what a 300Gh/s miner would produce:

<gribble> The expected generation output, at 300000.0 Mhps, given difficulty of 390928787.638, is 0.385932066658 BTC per day and 0.0160805027774 BTC per hour.

I then asked:

<puze> say around 2.6 BTC per week. What did 300 GH/s produce 3 or 6 months ago and are we able to work out or predict what it will produce in 3 or 6 months time?

Any ideas? What did 300Gh/s get you in the past and what will it get you in the near future in the way of mined coins?

 

[helioslemons]

At a difficulty rising by about 30% each time, reckon you'll be looking at 0.008 a day in 6 months. Depressing, but no one knows for certain!

[puze]

At a difficulty rising by about 30% each time, reckon you'll be looking at 0.008 a day in 6 months. Depressing, but no one knows for certain!

That's a huge drop from the 0.385 quoted by the bot for today's difficulty level.

Phenomenal.

[puze]

How much would a 300 GH/s miner cost?

Around $2500.00

Am looking for a link to mining rigs and cost etc now (thought I had it bookmarked).

Edit: found it...

http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/

[puze]

Thanks for the link, the list is a bit outdated since most rigs are cheaper now.

I had no idea - that just what I came across in the last day or so.

In the meantime...

Found this statement on Reddit:

The difficulty changes to keep the block production rate steady. Anything quicker than a rate of 6 blocks per hour for the 2016 block period will result in a difficulty increase.

So, does this mean that as difficulty increases with time, we may very well see a point where the rate of blocks found drops to below 6 per hour and thus difficulty will then remain the same or fall?

Is that how it may work?

[VonIobro]

I believe it can also adjust the production rate down, if needed.

I hear a lot of doom and gloom about production rates skyrocketing... something doesn't sound right. I believe that as long as people are making money they will continue to mine, right? And if not, they will stop and the difficulty will reduce? Maybe the point here, is that if it does continue at this rate, with this next generation of miners, sounding obsolete before they have produced... it might be better to wait for the next round of ASICS (or whatever technology usurps it.. quantum? LOL)

/4

[DannyHamilton]

So, does this mean that as difficulty increases with time, we may very well see a point where the rate of blocks found drops to below 6 per hour and thus difficulty will then remain the same or fall?

Is that how it may work?

Yes.  But it is extremely difficult (impossible?) to predict when that will happen.

[lightfoot]

There is also the concept of the "dollar auction" aspect to mining; if it no longer becomes profitable you still have a sunk cost, so you continue mining to *minimize* your loss.

Thus difficulty goes up as long as people think they can minimize their losses by mining. Which causes losses to continue to go up.

Moral: People are really bad at math....

[waltermot321]

At a difficulty rising by about 30% each time, reckon you'll be looking at 0.008 a day in 6 months. Depressing, but no one knows for certain!

No, its rising at 40% each time now....

[puze]

I really wanted to have a go at mining, even just from a hobby type position, just to contribute.

But it increasingly looks like it is not worth it.

The 300GH/s rig I was thinking of going halves in with a pal seemingly now has a good chance of only producing a small fraction of what it would produce in coins at this very moment.