Best Growth for Bitcoin

[theonewhowaskazu]

As exciting as bubbles are, I think its important to understand that while Bitcoin is "catching up" to where it should be, there is always a fair sized overshoot, triggering what is always another overshoot of a downward correction.

I think that Bitcoin would be in the best place if we saw August / September type growth again, this time near the all time high. See, those months were still phenomenal for Bitcoin - we increased by almost 50% over a 2-month period - but if we were near the ATH, it would still stay "exciting" enough for the press to continue to feature Bitcoin continuously. And while there were some scary crashes, those almost always fixed themselves almost immediately. Months like that set up the rally that we've been enjoying since October.

I think huge leverage & hype is fueling this bubble and I think that trying to encourage a steady plateau at the top would be best for Bitcoin's health, since each time we crash hugely there is a real risk that the overshoot might be so big that it actually kills bitcoin. I hope it takes us at the very least several weeks before we see $500, and I hope we hold fast right around there until January, giving the long-term trend time to catch up. For once, it'd be nice to see a "bubble" that doesn't hugely overshoot and cause a crash. I mean, I'm even OK with a 10% - 20% downward correction at the end. Just nothing like 50% - 75%, and I'll be happy as can be.

[theonewhowaskazu]

Bitcoin lowers the bar for speculative gambling. So... you will have a lot of inexperienced people doing things like buying the ATH and selling the local lows. These people add volatility until they run out of money or learn to trade.

So... what is best isn't always what will happen.

Convince people to relax and dollar cost average instead of chasing massive day trading gains. While you are at it convince them to stop being a stupid miner on a traditional pool and start being a smart miner on P2Pool.

I have nothing against pools. I also have nothing against bad traders losing money. I do have a problem with people that own tons of coins actively manipulating the market to cause these swings. When we get near $500, it would be very easy to SLOWLY start selling some coins to cause a small correction where you can re-buy, with less risk for you AND for Bitcoin. Instead, I see people actually trying to cause 'the crash.'

[theonewhowaskazu]

Bitcoin lowers the bar for speculative gambling. So... you will have a lot of inexperienced people doing things like buying the ATH and selling the local lows. These people add volatility until they run out of money or learn to trade.

So... what is best isn't always what will happen.

Convince people to relax and dollar cost average instead of chasing massive day trading gains. While you are at it convince them to stop being a stupid miner on a traditional pool and start being a smart miner on P2Pool.

I have nothing against pools. I also have nothing against bad traders losing money. I do have a problem with people that own tons of coins actively manipulating the market to cause these swings. When we get near $500, it would be very easy to SLOWLY start selling some coins to cause a small correction where you can re-buy, with less risk for you AND for Bitcoin. Instead, I see people actually trying to cause 'the crash.'

So you don't have a problem with stupid people, but you have a problem with those who are capable of taking advantage of stupid people?

Great.

Yes, especially when they're doing it in a way that can destroy their own investment & one of the best ideas ever by actively trying to cause 'march 11th.'

[bitcon]

btc always recovers.  as long as you dont sell for lower than you paid youll be fine

[theonewhowaskazu]

btc always recovers.  as long as you dont sell for lower than you paid youll be fine

What if you buy for more than you sold? Don't forget that part.

[ElectricMucus]

btc always recovers.  as long as you dont sell for lower than you paid youll be fine

What if you buy for more than you sold? Don't forget that part.

Ironically nobody is concerned about that.

[piramida]

each time we crash hugely there is a real risk that the overshoot might be so big that it actually kills bitcoin.

Really? Explain how dropping down to $2 can kill bitcoin? Wild oscillations are normal for this type of completely unregulated herd-driven market; and bitcoin's essence could never be killed by any amount of overshoots, given that there are larger periods of stability inbetween the wild rides, allowing it to be used for transacting once the new price levels have been established.

And no, I don't think it is possible for bitcoin to just freeze around the new ATH level without oscillating. That only means there's more room to go up.

[theonewhowaskazu]

each time we crash hugely there is a real risk that the overshoot might be so big that it actually kills bitcoin.

Really? Explain how dropping down to $2 can kill bitcoin? Wild oscillations are normal for this type of completely unregulated herd-driven market; and bitcoin's essence could never be killed by any amount of overshoots, given that there are larger periods of stability inbetween the wild rides, allowing it to be used for transacting once the new price levels have been established.

And no, I don't think it is possible for bitcoin to just freeze around the new ATH level without oscillating. That only means there's more room to go up.

If it goes to $2 now, everybody will write it off as worthless and nobody will want it any more. It currently costs about ¥1000 to buy a hardcover book. Nobody has a problem with that in Japan. But if suddenly it cost $1000 to buy a hardcover book, in the US, there would obviously be a big problem.

Declines in value are what causes people to lose faith in a currency, not how much a single unit of that currency actually buys.

[jubalix]

each time we crash hugely there is a real risk that the overshoot might be so big that it actually kills bitcoin.

Really? Explain how dropping down to $2 can kill bitcoin? Wild oscillations are normal for this type of completely unregulated herd-driven market; and bitcoin's essence could never be killed by any amount of overshoots, given that there are larger periods of stability inbetween the wild rides, allowing it to be used for transacting once the new price levels have been established.

And no, I don't think it is possible for bitcoin to just freeze around the new ATH level without oscillating. That only means there's more room to go up.

If it goes to $2 now, everybody will write it off as worthless and nobody will want it any more. It currently costs about ¥1000 to buy a hardcover book. Nobody has a problem with that in Japan. But if suddenly it cost $1000 to buy a hardcover book, in the US, there would obviously be a big problem.

Declines in value are what causes people to lose faith in a currency, not how much a single unit of that currency actually buys.

if it went to $2...i would buy that like there was no tomorrow.

[piramida]

Alot of people would start selling kidneys to buy all they can long before it hits $2. There is no problem really, if it goes too high - means some people can and want to buy that high.

When it will be in 4 digits next year, $400 would look like $32 looks now - extremely cheap. Remember, one year ago most people would not even believe it could ever get to $32 again. One freaking year ago I myself estimated fair price at $14. Now it would be impossible to reach that low - because that price is already remembered by everybody as "buy all you can" levels.