Five years ahead

[Ibian]

Here is what a lot of people are probably missing: The entire western economy is going to collapse. Probably around 2020.

I have the distinct impression that Bitcoin will be precisely what saves the World economy from completely collapsing.

The transition will be extremely chaotic and disruptive however.

Agree with others in the thread pointing out a straight exponential line is irrelevant in the context of predicting technological adoption. We have entered the steep part of the S-curve now. The value will begin flattening as adoption butts up against some percentage (1? 5? 50? 80?) of the entire size of the World economy. Anything exceeding 10 million (2013 USD) per XBT would mean Bitcoin would absorb much of the current speculative investment and longterm deposits markets (M3).

Thing is most of the fiat economy doesn't exist. Converting the world economy as it is now to bitcoin would mean maybe 90% of the worlds wealth would be lost, making the 30s look like the daily bitcoin correction.

I don't believe bitcoin will save the world economy, more likely it will act as some sort of transition towards another system or as a replacement.

[zimmah]

I remember my biology lecturer showing a graph on how quickly bacteria divide and grow.  He said after a few weeks the entire planet would be covered in a metres thick layer of bacteria.  Except it's not.  There isn't enough food and other resources to support that sort of growth in numbers.

Bitcoin is no different.  New speculators and current speculators who think the price will go even higher are the 'food' for bitcoin.  Once we run out of enough to sustain growth the price will taper off and fall.

But hey, I would love to believe I can pay off my entire mortgage with one bitcoin sometime in 2016. 

stop seeing bitcoin as purely an investment and start utilizing it as a currency.

the number of shoppers is far greater than the number of investors, and once bitcoin gets used instead of credit and debit cards, the bitcoin will become a true currency and be much stronger for it.

[beckspace]

The graph is in a log scale....this is good but I think in order to predict the future better we need to look at it as a sigmoid/logistic curve.
(That would support your theory of it slowing down later.)

Yeah, I wish I could make a sigmoid curve at the end, but I just wanted to point out that Bitcoin has the potential to reach, even considering a deceleration later, 1 million in 5 years.

That's 16 million BTC (2018) at US$ 1 million = US$ 16 trillion (Bitcoin M1).

Considering low single digits percentages of the US Debt, the derivatives, the safe havens, other countries economies (very important), speculative commodities and assets etc., it's seems plausible.

Because we're dealing with money here, it could take 1.5-2x longer, though. Even then, it's not the end of the world, you see.

I wonder if Bitcoin will be alive in 5 years

It's programmed to last forever.

[CMMPro]

I don't think at this time it would be possible to know where we are on the sigmoid curve so there isn't much that can be done in that regard.

The log graph is the best we have at this early stage of adoption...once it starts to reduce again we will be better able to predict the max future values based on the remaining "fit" of the curve.

[zimmah]

yes, altough i think 10 million and 100 million are quite bullish to say the least, i am pretty sure 100k or even 1 million are well within the realm of possible outcomes within 5 to 10 years.

[Siegfried]

yes, altough i think 10 million and 100 million are quite bullish to say the least, i am pretty sure 100k or even 1 million are well within the realm of possible outcomes within 5 to 10 years.

If bitcoin's market cap ever reaches the several trillion dollar level, then it simply will not be meaningful to quote its value in dollar terms.

[beetcoin]

We went 100x this year.  If we go 100x next year, we will be at $100k per coin.  It's just a matter of how high this is going to go overall, but we are going to get to that level by 2015 regardless of what it is.

i'm thinking that the more we grow, the less room there is to grow. the BTC life is so wild that i guess 100x isn't unreasonable, but i just don't know.. having that kind of a market cap would mean BTC would definitely be in the mainstream.

[eindbaas]

I just hope I can buy a bmw 1er M and an appartment in less then 1 year . Got now +- 55k dollars in btc.

[ArpFlush]

Here is what a lot of people are probably missing: The entire western economy is going to collapse. Probably around 2020. There are other circles equally as nerdy as this one who deal with that stuff but suffice to say, if bitcoin survives that and becomes a dominant form of currency, the price will go much higher than the $300k people have been talking about.

It might be even sooner (like 2016 I've read somewhere). They stated that money markets will crash during that time but an "alternative" is getting ready to take over....let's say BTC