It's difficult to judge but ask yourself about the general trend of bitcoin.
The reason it hasn't gone quite a lot lower (see previous bubbles) is because there are a lot of people:
1. ...Who have arrived over the past couple of months and put a "sensible" (relative to themselves) amount into Bitcoin and who are looking at it as a year or longer investment with great returns. Don't forget a year is quite SHORT in investment terms. These people aren't going to panic over dipping below the price they bought in because they really believe that in a year they will make better money than they could anywhere else. I believe that these people by far make up the MAJORITY of new buyers over the past few months.
2. ...Who are holding Bitcoins who also believe strongly that the value will go to 2 or 3 or 4 times the value over the next year and who certainly do not want to miss out on this because of panic selling now. Remember that long term holders have experience of Bitcoin volatility.
Why do people think it will rise in the future? Because:
1. It has done so far for 5 years. In a very strong way.
2. Serious businesses with serious money are investing seriously in the technology.
3. Serious investors with serious money are investing seriously in the investment (
)
4. Despite the uncertainty at the moment, it looks very likely that Bitcoin is acceptable to most countries in some category or other (asset, currency, etc.). Frankly, at the end of the day who cares if you have to pay capital gains on something that doubles or trebles in value over a year. And when more and more people start to use it, there is no law saying that it could not be re-classified.
At the end of the day, you have to understand that it is still early days, despite all the media coverage. There is a lot more growth to happen.
I am bullish even for the short term; by short term I mean a couple of months. People forget what short term means (or should mean) to most people on this forum! Take a step back, decide whether you think Bitcoin is here to stay or not and then don't worry about one day to the next if you think it is.
