Bitcoin Derivatives Contracts $1400 by Jan2014

[GigaCoin]

Bitcoin Derivatives have arrived:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-12-08/bitcoin-derivatives-market-has-arrived

[beetcoin]

here's the link https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2013/reach-1400-december-2013

if i were to bet, i'd choose no for $1400 by end of dec. why is there so much disparity between buy and sell by the way? if buying in is $3.49, does that mean the market believes that there is a 34.9% chance of this happening?

[SheHadMANHands]

Seems like a ridiculous house spread, unless I'm missing something..  Betting on $1400+ pays ~2:1, betting against pays 1:19 ~

[beetcoin]

maybe they don't have enough people in the pool for the estimations to be good enough.

[PirateHatForTea]

Predictious is a predictions market - like intrade before it closed down. That means that the 'bets' are actually buy-sell agreements between two parties over an event outcome.

The spreads are large because it is still very new and there are not many market makers. Hopefully as the platform attracts more users this will change.

There is no 'house spread' because there is no house - they are not a bookmaker, they are an intermediary, and make their money with transaction fees.

[GigaCoin]

Predictious is a predictions market - like intrade before it closed down. That means that the 'bets' are actually buy-sell agreements between two parties over an event outcome.

The spreads are large because it is still very new and there are not many market makers. Hopefully as the platform attracts more users this will change.

There is no 'house spread' because there is no house - they are not a bookmaker, they are an intermediary, and make their money with transaction fees.

Good explanation, makes sense in regards to the spreads.

[byronbb]

Seems like a ridiculous house spread, unless I'm missing something..  Betting on $1400+ pays ~2:1, betting against pays 1:19 ~

lol is this correct, that's like 20% vig.

[GriTBitS]

Well I went here http://www.brainjar.com/dhtml/ouija/ and asked!!!! The answers I got was that  5k in 2014, 16k in 2015, 100k in 2017. While going through my training to be a hedge fund trader at GS. You learn to use this in advanced options trading. So I figured why not try it on bitcoin.

[Nagle]

Who's the counter-party? That is, who has to pay up when they lose? And how do you make them?

Derivatives are only possible with a system that compels payment of debts.

[Predictious]

Who's the counter-party? That is, who has to pay up when they lose? And how do you make them?

Derivatives are only possible with a system that compels payment of debts.

Hi Nagle,

Predictious is an exchange, we match buyers and sellers and we act as central counterparty. We require full deposit to cover potential losses when you buy a share.

Let us know if you have more questions.

[laowai80]

Prices vary between exchanges, up to a $100 difference, sometimes even more. Where do you look up the price for bitcoin?

[ElectricMucus]

Nice find long squeeze incoming.

[Dafar]

Who's the counter-party? That is, who has to pay up when they lose? And how do you make them?

Derivatives are only possible with a system that compels payment of debts.

Hi Nagle,

Predictious is an exchange, we match buyers and sellers and we act as central counterparty. We require full deposit to cover potential losses when you buy a share.

Let us know if you have more questions.

Can you explain how this works?


It says Sell at 3.00 and Buy at 5.95.. so if I think BTC will be over $1400 by Jan2014 I would Buy for $5.95... and if I guess right I would get back $10 for every buy. Is that how this works? And do I have to trade in bitcoins or can I use dollar?

[Le Happy Merchant]

Seems like a ridiculous house spread, unless I'm missing something..  Betting on $1400+ pays ~2:1, betting against pays 1:19 ~

I still wouldn't take 1:19 odds on that specific bet.

[Nagle]

Who's the counter-party? That is, who has to pay up when they lose? And how do you make them?

Derivatives are only possible with a system that compels payment of debts.

Hi Nagle,

Predictious is an exchange, we match buyers and sellers and we act as central counterparty. We require full deposit to cover potential losses when you buy a share.

Let us know if you have more questions.

Pixode doesn't stand behind their service. From their rules:

Pixode may vary these Rules at its sole discretion at any time. Notification of any changes will be posted on the Predictious website. Pixode does not have obligation to contact you directly about a change to these Rules. All changes will apply to all outstanding trades, orders and financial transactions. You agree that should you object to these Rules or any subsequent modification, or are dissatisfied with the service; your only recourse is to close your account

That's totally unacceptable for a futures exchange. The exchange has to stay with the rules in effect when the futures contract was made.

Also, they're not a registered bookmaker in Ireland, and since they accept sports bets (you can bet on the World Cup or the Super Bowl on their site), they probably should be. It's legal to be a bookie in Ireland, but you have to be licensed.

[GigaCoin]

Who's the counter-party? That is, who has to pay up when they lose? And how do you make them?

Derivatives are only possible with a system that compels payment of debts.

Hi Nagle,

Predictious is an exchange, we match buyers and sellers and we act as central counterparty. We require full deposit to cover potential losses when you buy a share.

Let us know if you have more questions.

Pixode doesn't stand behind their service. From their rules:

Pixode may vary these Rules at its sole discretion at any time. Notification of any changes will be posted on the Predictious website. Pixode does not have obligation to contact you directly about a change to these Rules. All changes will apply to all outstanding trades, orders and financial transactions. You agree that should you object to these Rules or any subsequent modification, or are dissatisfied with the service; your only recourse is to close your account

That's totally unacceptable for a futures exchange. The exchange has to stay with the rules in effect when the futures contract was made.

Also, they're not a registered bookmaker in Ireland, and since they accept sports bets (you can bet on the World Cup or the Super Bowl on their site), they probably should be. It's legal to be a bookie in Ireland, but you have to be licensed.

thanks for pointing out these issues Nagle, hopefully Predictious can respond to these points soon.