2024 Diff thread happy New Years.

[joker_josue]

yeah most big companies have six cent power and a 3.1 kwatt s19 unit burns about 4.50 it earns 5.26

How long are contracts normally for?
Updated every year? Every 6 months?

If it happens every year, it will only be closer to the end of the year that we should feel a greater impact.

[philipma1957]

price is over 71k and 1 th is earning about 0.0556

so a 100th miner is earning $5.56 - power cost of  about $5.25  at 7 cent power or $31 cent profit for a s19pro j

and a 200th miner is earning $11.12 - power cost of  about $5.60 at 7 cent power or $5.52 profit for a s21

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   844369  (a few seconds ago)

Current Pace:   101.1444%  (1682 / 1662.97 expected, 19.03 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   88104191118793.16                            
Current Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Next Difficulty:   between 84106447228499 and 84133807675813
Next Difficulty Change:   between +1.1523% and +1.1852%
Previous Retarget:   May 9, 2024 at 6:53 AM  (-5.6250%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 3:05 AM  (in 2d 7h 2m 12s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 3:11 AM  (in 2d 7h 8m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 20h 11m 53s and 13d 20h 18m 9s

Latest Block:   844751  (6 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   102.4146%  (48 / 46.87 expected, 1.13 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Current Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 84584188540466 and 88910383861430
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.2403% and +5.3672%
Previous Retarget:   Today at 2:05 AM  (+1.4830%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 5, 2024 at 6:10 PM  (in 13d 8h 16m 0s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 6, 2024 at 1:43 AM  (in 13d 15h 48m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 16h 4m 41s and 13d 23h 37m 38s

we did 1.48%

[mikeywith]

we did 1.48%

Too early but we having a fast pace for the new epoch

Latest Block:
845051  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:
114.6777%  (348 / 303.46 expected, 44.54 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:
83148355189239.77                           
Current Difficulty:
84381461788831.34                           
Next Difficulty:
between 88040795285273 and 97187358771989
Next Difficulty Change:
between +4.3367% and +15.1762%
Previous Retarget:
last Thursday at 8:05 AM  (+1.4830%)
Next Retarget (earliest):
June 4, 2024 at 1:05 PM  (in 10d 2h 25m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):
June 5, 2024 at 6:31 PM  (in 11d 7h 51m 28s)
Projected Epoch Length:
between 12d 4h 59m 41s and 13d 10h 26m 4s

Just imagine for one second that we would actually have a 14% increase in this epoch!

So it has been a month and so since the halving and we are only down by 4% or so, if we don't see another 10% drop then we know for sure this halving is different. Still too early to judge but anything is possible at this point.

[stompix]

So it has been a month and so since the halving and we are only down by 4% or so, if we don't see another 10% drop then we know for sure this halving is different. Still too early to judge but anything is possible at this point.

Cancel any air travel planes if you have one, incoming flying pigs battalion 
To be honest I can't believe how close I have got to the actual thing,

838,656   2024-04-11 00:17:33   86,388,558,925,171 - 86.39 T   + 3.92 %   0x17034219   09 min 38 s   618.15 EH/s
>
844,704   2024-05-23 09:18:50   84,381,461,788,831 - 84.38 T   + 1.48 %   0x170355f0   09 min 52 s   603.62 EH/s

Assuming this as before halving and the current one we would only need 2.38% up to match it, and this 2% is well in luck sector, it could happen even without the actual hash being there.
Anyhow the 14% is nuts, no way that happens, I doubt even the smaller estimate 4% is technically possible.

But seems like there are well too many people trapped in this, believing in price going up, having enough resources to think they can win the race and so on, and when I say too many is more like almost everyone.
You're probably the best guy to ask, is there any hint of massive used gear going for sale?

[mikeywith]

You're probably the best guy to ask, is there any hint of massive used gear going for sale?

ALOT, tens of thousands of S19 pros for under $5/th,  some even close to $4/th for bulk orders, I also see a lot of containers and large transformers (1MW and larger) for sale,  mostly located in the U.S.

We don't know where do these gears come from, but seems to be all small guys ( by today's standards at least), so seems like unless you are pretty huge or has some pretty cheap power rate, you are certainly going to lose.

But i am almost sure, the big boys are also somehow in a trouble and their turn is coming.

[NotATether]

The block creation rate has gone out of whack this past hour.

Literally 13 blocks created in the last 60 minutes. Since 845081.

I wonder if we are about to see a gigantic mempool congestion and hence much higher fees soon.

[stompix]

ALOT, tens of thousands of S19 pros for under $5/th,  some even close to $4/th for bulk orders, I also see a lot of containers and large transformers (1MW and larger) for sale,  mostly located in the U.S.

We don't know where do these gears come from,

Ok, so let me respond to your uncertainty with a question since I obviously believe you on this, then enlighten me where the f**** is this hashrate coming from?
If people are selling, people are quitting like Phil, if gear is dumped, if I look at 5 cents per th/s income where is this growth coming from?
Possible that even my one ridiculous prediction on the large pockets of the big guys was an underestimation?
This is nuts!!!

You probably have realized by now that I was half joking with that ATH before Q2, but right now it seems truly doable!

The block creation rate has gone out of whack this past hour.
Literally 13 blocks created in the last 60 minutes. Since 845081.
I wonder if we are about to see a gigantic mempool congestion and hence much higher fees soon.

Pace is still lower over 24h intervals than yesterday 165 vs 172.
But, I don't understand, how faster blocks trigger a congestion? It's the other way around!

[philipma1957]

ALOT, tens of thousands of S19 pros for under $5/th,  some even close to $4/th for bulk orders, I also see a lot of containers and large transformers (1MW and larger) for sale,  mostly located in the U.S.

We don't know where do these gears come from,

Ok, so let me respond to your uncertainty with a question since I obviously believe you on this, then enlighten me where the f**** is this hashrate coming from?
If people are selling, people are quitting like Phil, if gear is dumped, if I look at 5 cents per th/s income where is this growth coming from?
Possible that even my one ridiculous prediction on the large pockets of the big guys was an underestimation?
This is nuts!!!

You probably have realized by now that I was half joking with that ATH before Q2, but right now it seems truly doable!

The block creation rate has gone out of whack this past hour.
Literally 13 blocks created in the last 60 minutes. Since 845081.
I wonder if we are about to see a gigantic mempool congestion and hence much higher fees soon.

Pace is still lower over 24h intervals than yesterday 165 vs 172.
But, I don't understand, how faster blocks trigger a congestion? It's the other way around!

swapping s19 for s21 or t21


a 3.2 megawatt farm doing 1000 s19 could do 900 s21
so 1000x100 = 100000 th or 100 ph

becomes 900 x 200 = 180000th or 180ph

same power foot print.


if the mine is a 5 cent to 6 cent power cost simply swap out your s19s .


now the s19s have $4.50 power cost at six cents and earn 5.26-5.50 so they do not kill you as you swap out 100 at a time for s21 or better yet t21 which are 1000 cheaper even with the mods.

so by the end of the year your 1000 unit s19 mine is 900  s21 or 900:t21 or a mix of them.

it is easy for a 5-6 power cost guy.

to do this. he needs six 20 foot boxes set to do 600kwatts.


I lost my mine not because it cant turn a profit. we were capped for cheap power it 90 s21s is max we could do. thats 900 a day gross.

in 2021 we grossed 1200 a day and were not maxed out.

for the 2024 mine to work for the four of us btc needs to be at 140k. so we broke it up. the warehouse owner and his son at splitting the coin now.

[mikeywith]

Ok, so let me respond to your uncertainty with a question since I obviously believe you on this, then enlighten me where the f**** is this hashrate coming from?
If people are selling, people are quitting like Phil, if gear is dumped, if I look at 5 cents per th/s income where is this growth coming from?

It's probably mostly due to what Phill explained above, it gets more obvious when you look at the price tag of said gears, I saw used S19 pro go for $3.95/th, while on the other hand, a brand new S21 costs roughly $18/th, this is a 30w/th gear vs 18w/th gear, a few weeks before the halving those S19 went for double the price at $8 and higher, the S21 went for $19-$20, so almost zero change in price despite the halving.

This gives you a good clue how screwed everybody is, during the good times, the difference between an 18w vs 30w gear shouldn't be this huge, but now that profits are tight as hell, the 10-12w make all the difference in the world, although the ROI on these isn't looking too pretty because, at 5 cents/kWh, a 200th S21 earns $6.5 a day, but costs $3600, that's 553 days for ROI, not sure what everyone is betting on here, it's either a diff drop or a price increase, otherwise, ROI on this will only get worse, at 6 cents it's 642 days for ROI, this is not counting any downtime, failure, operation expenses, cooling, which could easily add another 30% to ROI.

I still can't think of any way to describe what's happening in the BTC mining world other than the chicken game, everybody knows there is no room for everybody else, nobody is backing down, everyone is hitting the pedal as hard as they can, shit would break loose at some point if BTC price doesn't moon, what's what I think, but while they keep playing this game, you may as well be correct on your assumption and see hashrate higher on Q3 than before the halving, which would wipe out all your previous wrong speculations.

[philipma1957]

Ok, so let me respond to your uncertainty with a question since I obviously believe you on this, then enlighten me where the f**** is this hashrate coming from?
If people are selling, people are quitting like Phil, if gear is dumped, if I look at 5 cents per th/s income where is this growth coming from?

It's probably mostly due to what Phill explained above, it gets more obvious when you look at the price tag of said gears, I saw used S19 pro go for $3.95/th, while on the other hand, a brand new S21 costs roughly $18/th, this is a 30w/th gear vs 18w/th gear, a few weeks before the halving those S19 went for double the price at $8 and higher, the S21 went for $19-$20, so almost zero change in price despite the halving.

This gives you a good clue how screwed everybody is, during the good times, the difference between an 18w vs 30w gear shouldn't be this huge, but now that profits are tight as hell, the 10-12w make all the difference in the world, although the ROI on these isn't looking too pretty because, at 5 cents/kWh, a 200th S21 earns $6.5 a day, but costs $3600, that's 553 days for ROI, not sure what everyone is betting on here, it's either a diff drop or a price increase, otherwise, ROI on this will only get worse, at 6 cents it's 642 days for ROI, this is not counting any downtime, failure, operation expenses, cooling, which could easily add another 30% to ROI.

I still can't think of any way to describe what's happening in the BTC mining world other than the chicken game, everybody knows there is no room for everybody else, nobody is backing down, everyone is hitting the pedal as hard as they can, shit would break loose at some point if BTC price doesn't moon, what's what I think, but while they keep playing this game, you may as well be correct on your assumption and see hashrate higher on Q3 than before the halving, which would wipe out all your previous wrong speculations.

Below a fake but realistic setup

All my gear is paid off I got s19s a while back and now I am as below ( with some coins in hand say 5 coins )

So my 1000 s19 mine  say 5 cents. I make 5.40 I burn 3.75 that is  1.65 profit x 1000 units so I earn 1650 a day or 50,000 a month.

It is my mine I have 3x  40 foot boxes 333 miners in each 3 mega watts.

It is on my property. I have a home there.

I take a coin cash it 68k I take a months profit 50,000 that is 118k.  I get s21's or t21's

If I get coupons the t21's are 3k plus shipping plus the mod total of 3500

that is 33 machines  I add 33 at 190th that is 6.270 ph I drop 38 s19's that is 3.800 ph.

same power use but 2.470 ph more mining. That means next month I add 34 units at 190th and drop 39

Easy to do and I sell the s19's at 500 each so in two months  

35,000 in sold off s19

and I have 927 s19's with 67 t21's

I went from 100,000th to 105,430th and in those two months I spent only 100,000 out of pocket.

since I am paid off and this include my labor and power.

I can slow the pace if I want. I just needed the setup above entering the 1/2 ing.  

I know people that can do this kind of a build out.

Bigger farms scale it bigger.

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   845152  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   112.4685%  (449 / 399.22 expected, 49.78 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Current Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 88361308218277 and 95215763842397
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.7165% and +12.8397%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:05 AM  (+1.4830%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 4, 2024 at 12:50 PM  (in 9d 16h 12m 47s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 5, 2024 at 11:21 AM  (in 10d 14h 43m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 10h 45m 1s and 13d 9h 15m 19s

[joker_josue]

Below a fake but realistic setup

In short, if the miner can have energy at 5-6 cents kW/h, mining will continue to be profitable. And you still have a good margin to update the machines you use, in order to increase your hash power while maintaining your energy expenditure.

We will certainly continue to see this "battle" between miners for some time.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator


Latest Block:   845321  (9 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   113.3247%  (618 / 545.34 expected, 72.66 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                           
Current Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                           
Next Difficulty:   between 89972488546314 and 95855849550753
Next Difficulty Change:   between +6.6259% and +13.5982%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:05 AM  (+1.4830%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 4, 2024 at 10:35 AM  (in 8d 13h 36m 14s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 5, 2024 at 5:35 AM  (in 9d 8h 36m 6s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 8h 29m 35s and 13d 3h 29m 28s

13.5982% is terrible

not sure we do that but 5-7% looks possible.

[stompix]

Latest Block:   845321  (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   113.3247%  (618 / 545.34 expected, 72.66 ahead)

13.5982% is terrible
not sure we do that but 5-7% looks possible.

And in half a day it dropped 5%, 17 blocks advantage gone in 53 blocks.
Shows how much variance can happen out of the blue.

Latest Block:   845374  (25 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.9425%  (671 / 615.92 expected, 55.08 ahead)

If the day continues like this we will drop even below 5%, which to be honest seems far more reasonable.

I still can't think of any way to describe what's happening in the BTC mining world other than the chicken game, everybody knows there is no room for everybody else, nobody is backing down, everyone is hitting the pedal as hard as they can, shit would break loose at some point if BTC price doesn't moon, what's what I think, but while they keep playing this game, you may as well be correct on your assumption and see hashrate higher on Q3 than before the halving, which would wipe out all your previous wrong speculations.

I have a better word for it, madness, and yeah if the price won't confirm the trend it will be a bloodbath, that happened, in every industry where billions were poured on high expectations that never materialized, but sooner or later some will face reality. As for my speculation, just give it time, it's still possible to be 25% off, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit.

[philipma1957]

https://newhedge.io/terminal/bitcoin/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   845391  (13 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   108.2680%  (688 / 635.46 expected, 52.54 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   83148355189239.77                            
Current Difficulty:   84381461788831.34                            
Next Difficulty:   between 88293705807603 and 91547319339246
Next Difficulty Change:   between +4.6364% and +8.4922%
Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 2:05 AM  (+1.4830%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   June 5, 2024 at 12:26 AM  (in 8d 12h 25m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   June 5, 2024 at 11:34 AM  (in 8d 23h 33m 54s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 22h 20m 27s and 13d 9h 28m 30s

and we are over 70k


Mining has been a rock pushing to be ready for the break out to over 140k.

If we do rise to 70k in a fast time earning would go to about 11 cents a th from the current 5.5 cents a th we are at.

To put this in perspective in Dec 2023 earnings were 13 cents a th . So was that 13 cents the last big number for th?

Time will tell.

[mikeywith]

Mining has been a rock pushing to be ready for the break out to over 140k.

I agree, seems like the mining industry is priced in for 100k+ BTC, with the current prices, cost, and everything, even for the big boys it's a few years to ROI, somewhere pretty close to the next halving which might extend the ROI from a few years to basically never, although I do see some contradiction here if someone believes BTC price is going up -- they should count their ROI in BTC and not in fiat, but obviously if you do that -- you are unlikely to buy or have bought any gears in a recent couple of months because ROI in BTC is more so like never with the current numbers. but ya, I don't know.

and yeah if the price won't confirm the trend it will be a bloodbath, that happened, in every industry where billions were poured on high expectations that never materialized, but sooner or later some will face reality.

American money makes this whole thing a few orders of magnitude harder to predict, anything is possible at this stage, but it's only a matter of time before shit hit the fan, we just don't know how long it's going to take.

[joker_josue]

Mining has been a rock pushing to be ready for the break out to over 140k.

I agree, seems like the mining industry is priced in for 100k+ BTC, with the current prices, cost, and everything, even for the big boys it's a few years to ROI, somewhere pretty close to the next halving which might extend the ROI from a few years to basically never, although I do see some contradiction here if someone believes BTC price is going up -- they should count their ROI in BTC and not in fiat, but obviously if you do that -- you are unlikely to buy or have bought any gears in a recent couple of months because ROI in BTC is more so like never with the current numbers. but ya, I don't know.

The question is, how long can miners last without significantly selling the mined bitcoins to cover the costs.
If they hold out, and this rise continues to occur, then they will most likely be able to enjoy a period of good profits.