No gut feeling needed.
Bitcoin has built-in price breaks, and once difficulty stops rising, you will see the effects of those price breaks:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=414657.0When difficulty stops rising, this will be a signal that mining is no longer hugely profitable, and that most of the new coins mined will cost in electricity close to their market price. This mins most of them will be going on the selling side on the exchanges, and this huge new daily supply will push the price down. 3 to 7 months from now.
