I believed the money printing => hyperinflation theory for a while.
Then I decided thats exactly what we are being sold.
I think the reality is that all that QE isn't going into the economy in the way one might think.
QE isn't putting money into the economy, its unwinding the debt merry go round.
Largely in agreement with this.
The central banks are giving out QE funny-money with strings attached that prevent the banks from using it in ways that may release the 'inflation genie', such as physical purchases of precious metals and retail lending. The retail banks are being flooded with cheap money that they are terrified to lend out into the economy. For one, they would rather spend it themselves than lend it as they are extremely worried about the purchasing power of fiat currency over longer term contracts. This is why the banks are not lending and we have simultaneously seen huge upwards movement in 'banker' markets like equities, bonds, fine art and even cryptos to a certain extent. They are worried that if they lend the money to the people, they will use it to 'vote with their feet' and move hugely into physical commodities & cryptos and out of the debt backed assets which they hold on their books in huge quantities.
Thats why we won't see hyperinflation, because none of that money will ever make it near the actual economy.
It's all being sucked up by the banks.
Since 2008 the promise of the *real* crash has been flaunted. You ain't seen nothin' yet, apparently.
Yet the last 5 years have proved to be a great run for equities.
S&P and DOW are both up around 100%, NASDAQ not far off 200%.
Everyone is talking about the stock market crashing the last few days.
Sure its down 5 or 6%, but then its also had a pretty much straight run up the last 4 months.
Seems like a health retest to me.
I'm not so sure about that. Wha's happening is that for the past 5 year, fear has been trumping greed. Bankers have pushed up equities, bonds, property & fine art and have supressed precious metals. This is all being financed on-margin from the fed with unlimited cheap money that the common man does not have access to. It's a phony recovery, financed with counterfeit dollars from the fed.
But when the writing is on the wall for these bankers, and they start commiting suicide en-masse, this money will massively panic out of every debt-backed asset that has been created over the past 30-40 years and back into sound money and physical assets that are not derived from the monetisation of debt.
These debt markets are bubbles of epic proportion, the bond market especially, and they are looking for a pin.
