ETF approving in August, how much it will affect the price?

[Lucius]

Do you have any opinion about how much money should enter the market to dry it up, we are probably talking about trillions $?

Technically (globally speaking) there are less than or close to 1 million directly available coins at current levels. If the price gets high enough more people will get motivated to wake up their cold wallet coins and dump them on the market, which happened last year as well. The market drying up will need a couple of years at the minimum because we have to cycle through the pumps and dumps. Every bull run peak is higher than the previous one, and that should motivate old hands to unload their coins.

In the end it's not just about the money, but the use. If LN gets up and running and people will be financially incentivized to run a node, which is the case, then they won't sell their coins but scoop up passive income in Bitcoin due to people using their liquidity and node to hop through. It's the first ever time in the history of Bitcoin that you can earn passive income without any risks and without having a third party control your funds. It's a big deal.

1 million coins is actually a very small amount considering that we have 17+ million mined coins, some of that is surely lost over time, but that means the majority of BTC waiting some better time to enter the market. I assumed that we need to wait for years in order to have a situation where demand exceeds supply. On the other hand LN "business" should definitely be a lucrative job for those who would know to take advantage of it.

There are many indicators which tell you how insanely undervalued Bitcoin is.

My favorites are (beside the fact that indeed there's less than 1 million coins actually available, or at least moving around)

-There are like 35 million millionaires in the world right now, in USD terms. If they all wanted 1 BTC, even if the total supply was available, there wouldn't be enough, since there would only be 21 million, but the actually supply is 16 million, which as we said before, realistically there's like 1 million coins actually "for sale".

-The richest guy in the world is worth more than the entire marketcap of Bitcoin (Bezos)

-The dotcom bubble peaked at near 7 trillion, then Amazon went much higher than that 10 years later. We have never been anywhere near 7 trillion on the entire crypto ecosystem combined

Conclusion: Bitcoin has been, and continues being, insanely underrated.

It is a very big number of millionaires, the question is only whether they are interested to invest in BTC and move even small % of their wealth from stocks, gold, silver or fiat. Maybe ETF will change that, and even if 10% of them want to have 1 BTC, it is huge number which markets can not satisfy at this time.

I agree that BTC has an incredible potential, still insufficiently recognized by majority of big players. Optimists would say they just wait for the right moment, maybe they wait ETF or some other big thing - but that moment will come, there is no doubt about it.

[Eros1on]

The price of BTC should be helpful. If the etf is successful, a lot of money will enter the encrypted market, and the price of BTC may break the previous high.

[DrewXland]

I think that we will rise towards 9000 usd, and upon hitting 10k see some retracement. I'd like to think we could finished above 10k by the end of the year. We have to be realistic 40k-50k is far off and will take a lot of sustained institutional investment and interest. Still early days for the king.

[richardsNY]

I assumed that we need to wait for years in order to have a situation where demand exceeds supply.

It will be interesting for sure to see what will happen, especially so with how more and more people treat Bitcoin as gold. I hold some gold as well and it started way before I discovered Bitcoin. I wanted to have something with value that I can use in case fiat for whatever reason is no longer the main unit of exchange. I was accumulating gold, and almost stopped doing so after finding out that Bitcoin is the digital equivalent of gold. I was never planned to sell my gold, just spend them when needed and the same applies to Bitcoin for me. If more people start to do the same, and I'm sure it's growing, the value will shoot up in the most badass way.

[figmentofmyass]

except that there are REAL bitcoins backing them up, so they aren't paper bitcoins, they're real bitcoins being held by the institution providing the ETF, not simply just betting on the future price of bitcoin which is what futures are.

buying ETF shares means betting on the future price of bitcoin too.....

and i really hope the apparent irony of an ETF for a P2P currency is not lost on people here.

bitcoin futures with real delivery would be more important to the market because it would provide capital flow to the spot market. that's an actual avenue for BTC liquidity, which an ETF is not. you buy ETF shares for cash, and you sell them for cash, period. there is an assumption of arbitrage and therefore tracking the underlying, but as pointed out above that isn't necessarily the case at all.

ETF will take up actual Bitcoin supply, something that futures don't do. And that is how the price goes up.

the supply is already locked up. you think solidx and winklevoss are waiting for SEC approval to buy the coins backing their trusts?

[Lucius]

I assumed that we need to wait for years in order to have a situation where demand exceeds supply.

It will be interesting for sure to see what will happen, especially so with how more and more people treat Bitcoin as gold. I hold some gold as well and it started way before I discovered Bitcoin. I wanted to have something with value that I can use in case fiat for whatever reason is no longer the main unit of exchange. I was accumulating gold, and almost stopped doing so after finding out that Bitcoin is the digital equivalent of gold. I was never planned to sell my gold, just spend them when needed and the same applies to Bitcoin for me. If more people start to do the same, and I'm sure it's growing, the value will shoot up in the most badass way.

I'm not sure what people actually think about BTC, most of people is here for quick earnings - buy low/sell high and it will take time to start experiencing it as a store of value. The biggest problem is BTC volatility, people are just scared that they could lose everything, so for most people it is just risk investment for now.
 

the supply is already locked up. you think solidx and winklevoss are waiting for SEC approval to buy the coins backing their trusts?

I am also thinking that those who will provide ETF services certainly accumulate BTC for some time, now they maybe just buy even more and this process is likely to continue. ETF will be approved sooner or later and it need real BTC, only question is how much will be interest from big investors.


There is some news that SEC is delayed decisions regarding some of ETFs, but it currently does not affect this main ETF from VanEck and SolidX. However is not impossible that SEC delay even this decision, it may be in next month, but it is not mandatory.

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/

[airdropcoin]

I think if the ETF can be approved, then this will be a historic moment in the cryptocurrency market, and the convenience offered by ETH is likely to win the bull market!

[LeGaulois]

There is some news that SEC is delayed decisions regarding some of ETFs, but it currently does not affect this main ETF from VanEck and SolidX. However is not impossible that SEC delay even this decision, it may be in next month, but it is not mandatory.

https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-decision-on-direxions-bitcoin-etfs-until-september/

So,  it's not so bad. We have until September to continue to see the Bitcoin price increasing.  For people like me who don't believe to see ETF approved at least,  we have something positive, 12 extra month.  Vague explanation from the SEC to explain the postpone by the way

[gentlemand]

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795224958455810

According to this geezer they can stretch out their decision for this particular application until February 2019. I don't think the market will be able sustain its FOMO until then somehow.

[LeGaulois]

https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795224958455810

According to this geezer they can stretch out their decision for this particular application until February 2019. I don't think the market will be able sustain its FOMO until then somehow.

I am not sure to get what he is saying
First, he explains how the extensions work there
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795228758548480

And then he says it's the last extension
https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1021795231803559937
"This is the third & final extension allowed by law -- 15 U.S.C. § 78s(b)(2), in case you were wondering."

If the last extension ends on September 21, then what is the february 2019date

[gentlemand]

If the last extension ends on September 21, then what is the february 2019date

Another extension?

https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-83520.pdf

Looks like the first proposal for this was June 26th so it lines up with what he laid out for the other application he lists which dragged out for 240 days.

There's so little info that's being taken in that I'm sure someone like this knows more than your average Reddit zombie. I still see people calling it the CBOE ETF when all they're doing is applying for a rule change on behalf of the applicants.

[Lucius]

If the last extension ends on September 21, then what is the february 2019date

Another extension?

https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/cboebzx/2018/34-83520.pdf

Looks like the first proposal for this was June 26th so it lines up with what he laid out for the other application he lists which dragged out for 240 days.

There's so little info that's being taken in that I'm sure someone like this knows more than your average Reddit zombie. I still see people calling it the CBOE ETF when all they're doing is applying for a rule change on behalf of the applicants.

By what was published in tweet from Jake Chervinsky it seems that final day for decision is actually March 4, 2019 because notice was published on July 2 and according to his interpretation weekends days are not counted in total days.

Correction on the timeline: the final deadline should be March 4, 2019. Notice was published on July 2, not June 26. Adjusting for weekend deadlines (which carry over to Mondays) you end up on March 4. The amount of time lawyers spend calculating deadlines may surprise you.

It seems that around these dates there is a real confusion, and maybe even March 4 is not final date. For now this does not affect the price, let's see how long and how high we can ride on this wave

[Rapidgator]

While most people are saying the Bitcoin price will increase up to the $40,000. I am joining extasie opinion and asking at the same time:
If the decision is negative what do you think will happen to the price? A big slap like it got previously already! Bitcoin could below the $,5000

If there will be negative decision let's say to EOY period (with is unlikely imo) there is going to be a massive hit in Bitcoin price and we should consider a lower leveles than 5kUSD or even 4,5kUSD.

[Lucius]

While most people are saying the Bitcoin price will increase up to the $40,000. I am joining extasie opinion and asking at the same time:
If the decision is negative what do you think will happen to the price? A big slap like it got previously already! Bitcoin could below the $,5000

If there will be negative decision let's say to EOY period (with is unlikely imo) there is going to be a massive hit in Bitcoin price and we should consider a lower leveles than 5kUSD or even 4,5kUSD.

I just hope SEC will not make a negative decision at the first deadline in August, it would most likely have a negative impact on market - but I am not sure that such decision can shake up market to drop under 5000$.

VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust representatives are pretty confident that this time they have much greater chance than before, because they work on improvements and learn from mistakes. You can read more here : Proposed VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust ETF is still a green light

[BitHodler]

I just hope SEC will not make a negative decision at the first deadline in August, it would most likely have a negative impact on market - but I am not sure that such decision can shake up market to drop under 5000$.

On one side I'm quite happy with these financial instruments, and on the other side I would prefer them to not exist at all.

The positive side of having these instruments is that it grants Bitcoin legitimacy, which is a very important factor when it comes to shaking off altcoins that are slowly catching up due to people's stupidity.

The negative side is that it will turn Bitcoin into a market controlled by institutions just like how they control the prices of stocks and other assets. Bitcoin has grown too large to not be noticed by institutions.

Overall, with or without an ETF, the price will break new highs later on anyway. It only requires a bit more patience.