Hey all, just wanted to share my theories on what could happen in the next couple months. My belief is that most of Bitcoin's price increases are self fueled. The media is a key factor in this process but is not what initiates price increases. Not as of yet, anyways.
Read:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25332746To me it's obvious that Bitcoin has too much momentum as of now to be stopped. Even with the markets incredible volatility, and the slump we're in now. I think a full comeback is pretty much guaranteed. There's just too much hype. The only reason the price is down right now is Mt. Gox and thats it. Once that mess it sorted out, I believe we're actually due for another bubble to start up. After Mt. Gox dies off or gets sorted out or whatever, the media will draw positive attention to Bitcoin's return to normal price on other exchanges. Then, just like before, more people will invest, more people will speculate, the bubble will grow, the bubble will pop. That's pretty much whats been happening this whole time anyways.
Remember that we've gone through price declines of this magnitude plenty of time's in the past. Since December 13, 2014 we've seen a 43% decrease in price, with ups and downs in between. But let's not forget about all the other times we've seen price decreases much much worse. April 10, 2013, a 61% decrease in price. We didn't think we were coming back from that but hey. Look where we went. (
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timothylee/2013/04/11/an-illustrated-history-of-bitcoin-crashes/)
This decrease is for a strictly temporary reason as well. Mt. Gox is temporary. Someone will be along to replace them, people will move on. No doubt it's a setback for all of Bitcoin, but a comeback is almost definitely happening.
If the bubbles are on any sort of schedule at all, I think the next one will start in about 2.5 months. I used google trends as an indicator of interest and media attention, and put that on a graph of the bitcoin price. The graph is from Coinbase. The green is the bitcoin price and the blue dotted is the google trends. It's nothing crazy, but I think it serves the purpose. You should look at it as the media/interest dependent on the price of Bitcoin, NOT the price of Bitcoin dependent on the media/interest.
http://i57.tinypic.com/30j20zt.jpgSo in summary, don't worry (except for Mt. Gox users, shoutout to you guys). The price will rebound from Mt. Gox, and soon after we should see a bubble occur. The bubble, I think, will happen give or take 2.5 months after this rebound. So definitely some sort of sustaining price increase by early April, save any more Mt. Gox cluster fuckings.
