Posslble trendlines (with charts and lines). Which one will hold?

[MatTheCat]

Now the journey down to the blue lines (Trend 1) begins, but not without one final fight with the horizontal green line. What are you seeing now the green horizontal support trying to hold up on its own while no longer receiving support from the green log trend. This may last a matter of days (or not) before it breaks down.

Days?

There is absolutely no volume at all since Bitcoin hit $530.

$530 will be broken through within hours and probably without the need for any overly dramatic dumps.

Bitcoin is not a stock that pays dividends. It is not a commodity that stores value. It is a means of electronic payment that so far, is not in even nearly widespread enough use to justify its price. If it aint going up, then its going down.....and it certainly doesn't look like it is going up right now.

[aminorex]

Bitcoin holds little instrinsic value. People are speculating on what the price will be when BitCoin will hold some intrinsic value (when Amazon, Google, eBay, etc. will start accepting payment). Because the price right now is purely speculation, I would not try to conclude long term trends. BitCoin is unlike stocks or fiat because it holds little intrinsic value. Stocks and other investments other than BitCoin have a tangible value. I challenge someone to give me an intrinsic value of BitCoin. I'm also saying that BitCoin will eventually have intrinsic value when it becomes a pseudo mainstream currency

Bitcoin has more users than many national currencies.  The law of statistical mechanics economics which determines the fundamental value of a currency is the ideal gas law Fisher's quantity theory of money, PQ=MV.  Using the blockchain for January I estimated the fundamental value of bitcoin at 640 BTCUSD.  The fundamental value rises on a logistic baseline, composed with the network value, which increases as the square of the number of nodes in the network.  Currently speculation has driven the price below the fundamental value.  After the despair phase has blown off, as a new wave of adopters come in, a new blow-off top will form, against a higher baseline.  The baseline is doubling approximately every 100 days. 

Stocks do not have tangible value.  Bitcoin does not have tangible value.  Stocks are shares in a limited liability corporation, a form of ensemble organization which dates to Norman England but did not come to the fore until enabled by double-entry accounting.  Bitcoin are shares in a distributed autonomous corporation which dates to the 1996 cypherpunk mailing list but did not come to the fore until enabled by the blockchain. 

Until you master the elementary aspects of Bitcoin, any predictive modeling that you do is likely to suffer from serious misconceptions and fail in dramatic ways.  Even after, it does have a way of doing what it has always done, in very surprising ways.

[aminorex]

The big problem with the 370s is that it takes too long to get there.  We'll be into the next adoption wave by that time.  Also, when the Gox coins are freed, there will be both dumping and Gox correlation lift in the exchanges.  That seems much more likely to mark the end of the downtrend than any other identifiable future event, and it would be challenging to burn off enough demand to hit the 370s in the 2-3 weeks which mark the reasonable forward bound on that event.

[segeln]

Trend 2 (logarithmic) and Trend 3 (linear) are both broken as of today. This is a HUGE breakdown. Trend 2 is the green line on my newer chart. This same breakdown of the green line occured last year due to problems on mtgox.



Now the journey down to the blue lines (Trend 1) begins, but not without one final fight with the horizontal green line. What are you seeing now the green horizontal support trying to hold up on its own while no longer receiving support from the green log trend. This may last a matter of days (or not) before it breaks down.

nothing of importance is broken yet.
neither the longterm up-trend (red) nor the uptrend since 2013 (blue)

[segeln]

Gox ,of course, broke every trendline

[Torque]

The big problem with the 370s is that it takes too long to get there.  We'll be into the next adoption wave by that time.  Also, when if the Gox coins are freed, there will be both dumping and Gox correlation lift in the exchanges.  That seems much more likely to mark the end of the downtrend than any other identifiable future event, and it would be challenging to burn off enough demand to hit the 370s in the 2-3 weeks which mark the reasonable forward bound on that event.

Agree with everything you said.  But had to fix one line above for ya.  There's absolutely NO guarantee that Gox will resume withdrawals, they may never.  They could very well just be stalling, and the decision has already been made (aka via their lawyers).  And even if they do it will most likely be severely restricted... meaning only a trickle of coins will come out, so these won't able to be dumped in mass quantities all at once on other exchanges.

[segeln]

Gox ,of course, broke every trendline

But Gox is a manipulated market.
Either gox will collapse and disappear, or once fully operational, price will resume its trend line.

I don`t belive in their fully operational mode again

[TERA]

nothing of importance is broken yet.
neither the longterm up-trend (red) nor the uptrend since 2013 (blue)

I agree. The "important" trends (my blue ones) have not been broken and probably wont. It is these other green trends which are younger or of lesser significance which the price attempted to follow but failed.

[segeln]

nothing of importance is broken yet.
neither the longterm up-trend (red) nor the uptrend since 2013 (blue)

I agree. The "important" trends (my blue ones) have not been broken and probably wont. It is these other green trends which are younger or of lesser significance which the price attempted to follow but failed.

in the BTC-world I am very careful with younger and short existing  trendlines.
The market is to dynamic for short "prediction"-trendlines

[TERA]

The sudden complete death of mtgox has accelerated the drop much faster than I expected and it has already basically reached my bottom target, but too early, and there is still room on the blue log trendline for a further drop $340. This leaves me confused and not knowing what to expect. 3 things could happen:

1. There is a further drop to $340, followed by a rise, followed by another drop bouncing off of the intersection area at $400.
2. There is no further drop but there is a brief sideways trading period followed by a second drop and bounce off of $400, this time time at the intersection area.
3. Bottom has already been reached and we have be starting a recovery to back above the green line, where it will trade sidewards for a long time.