Next Bubble

[khaled0111]

I have to agree with the above replies, maybe the next halving will have an impact on Bitcoin price, we happened twice before.

[figmentofmyass]

So what's the point of bitcoin if all your trxs are done offchain? You could fund your LN wallet or whatever they call it with any form of value such as Dogecoin or fiat.

bitcoin is the settlement layer. when you eventually want to exit LN with real money, you settle to the bitcoin blockchain. it's also used to arbitrate disputes between LN channel participants---if one participant is dishonest, the other can publish the true channel state to the blockchain.

This was my initial point, then I was told some hogwash about the LN being used indefinitely - like you never really need to settle.

the point of any exponential scaling scheme is to move the bulk of transactions off-chain. the entire security model of LN leverages bitcoin's security to ensure honest participation though.

As you just said, if you want to close the trxs for real money you need to settle onchain. So, retailers need to settle each trx after it happens, and typical one time peer to peer trxs need to settle after each trx - why? BECAUSE REAL MONEY NEEDS TO BE TRANSFERRED.

why would you need to settle to the blockchain after each transaction?

if a merchant wants fiat money, they'll use a payment processor who settles accounts periodically. customers can keep channels open with eg bitpay who settles to fiat on an exchange. none of this requires on-chain transactions except to periodically fund the exchange account---and even those can be reduced by payment channels between bitpay and its exchanges.

Thanks for confirming my original comment that the LN is useless for most bitcoin transactions between peers and retailers/customers. Totally. Useless.

i'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. it's one way to drastically reduce on-chain throughput. periodic settlement doesn't change that.

For those situations where ongoing trxs occur between parties, using the LN offchain is losing the decentralized unchangeable ledger that bitcoin provides, which is the whole fucking point behind it. The LN is not a solution to the scalability problem.

LN is trustless---that's the point of bitcoin. and it leverages bitcoin's ledger as needed by users. the purpose of bitcoin is to remove trusted intermediaries, not to publish every transaction to the blockchain.

[liuqi]

I have to agree with the above replies, maybe the next halving will have an impact on Bitcoin price, we happened twice before.

In crypto platform no one is decide the next bubble because all the pump and dump is depends on current demand. So next bubble is unknown. If you believe the previous example it is your fate, I not believe anyone because I am active in this market so I can monitor everything in all-time.

[thecodebear]

It will probably happen in 2021, a delayed effect from the halved supply in 2020 - and just the fact that it takes time for the FOMO to rise to a boiling point. Bull run should start next year, and slowly build to a fever pitch in 2021.

[figmentofmyass]

It will probably happen in 2021, a delayed effect from the halved supply in 2020 - and just the fact that it takes time for the FOMO to rise to a boiling point. Bull run should start next year, and slowly build to a fever pitch in 2021.

yes---if we follow the 2014 path. based on our very limited history that's the best guess, but chances are the market will form a different model than past cycles. they say history often rhymes but never repeats, and i think that applies to these cycles well.

[Febo]

Accumulation period (stability) is now brother, probably for 12-18 months. Next moon bound rocket leaves after the next halving.

How do you know we've already hit the bottom and are in the stable period? All the traders I respect are open to the $1,000s unfortunately. The $3K zone is definitely a place for a strong bounce, but this may have been just the first leg of the crash.

I'm loosely expecting another bubble within a year or two of the next halving. Time is even harder than price to predict though.

However you look at it we cant be that far from bottom. It has to happen next year if not this.  18 months is long period. Stability could last only 6 months.  So easily to squeeze those 6 months into 18 month period.

[Bezobraznike]

Accumulation period (stability) is now brother, probably for 12-18 months. Next moon bound rocket leaves after the next halving.

How do you know we've already hit the bottom and are in the stable period? All the traders I respect are open to the $1,000s unfortunately. The $3K zone is definitely a place for a strong bounce, but this may have been just the first leg of the crash.

I'm loosely expecting another bubble within a year or two of the next halving. Time is even harder than price to predict though.

However you look at it we cant be that far from bottom. It has to happen next year if not this.  18 months is long period. Stability could last only 6 months.  So easily to squeeze those 6 months into 18 month period.

   Next halving is in 2 years, I have time for waiting. I believe that price will rise in one moment, when ever that
come we need to use this accumulation period in our advantage, now it`s the right time for investing.
   I don`t agree with you Febo that 18 months is a long period, it will pass very fast. When it comes to technology
that will be globally adopted, 18 months sounds very fast. I guess we will need to wait and see who was right, only
thing I know is that I will be here.

[magneto]

If there were to be a bull market within this current decade, I'd say it would happen in 2020.

Firstly, the halving would be able to provide a reason for traders to be bullish, as the distribution of coins tighten. We've also historically seen bullish sentiment emerge from bear market around the time of halvings.

It wouldn't be surprising to me if people started to FOMO buy because of the halving, and the institutional investors that have started to pile in, and as a result, a bubble emerges. Again, it's not always a wise decision to hold bitcoin. When prices rise too much in the short term without any fundamentals (like institutional investors, or actual adoption surge), it's probably a bubble, and it makes sense to cash out for the short term and buy in at a lower price.

[gentlemand]

Doesn't anyone think another bubble post halving time feels just a little tooo convenient?

We should be paying attention to the regular markets above anything else. Bitcoin has basically existed during totally unchanged conditions. It's just on the cusp of stepping up to something bigger at the same time as everything looking distinctly wobbly. It could go either way.

If it gets up to a healthy level but shows no sign of bubbling I'd be looking to realise some money.

[exstasie]

Doesn't anyone think another bubble post halving time feels just a little tooo convenient?

Both times, the bubble occurred a year later so I don't see them as closely related events anyway. Another halving certainly shouldn't be a deterrent to a bubble though. If 2020-2021 is too convenient, perhaps it'll happen next year.

I'd bet on 2019 being quiet though.

We should be paying attention to the regular markets above anything else. Bitcoin has basically existed during totally unchanged conditions. It's just on the cusp of stepping up to something bigger at the same time as everything looking distinctly wobbly. It could go either way.

Agreed. A 2008-like crash would set back any bubble dreams quite some time.

[wuvdoll]

I don't know when the next bubble will be but if we keep thinking about the price increases as "bubbles" than we are not going to be better off next time it happens.

Price of bitcoin skyrockets time to time and it takes years for it to recover because people think the price is a bubble all the time. Last time bitcoin went to a high price and dropped everyone called it a bubble and the price increase was for nothing and undeserved than it increased 15 times that amount and when it failed this year we are calling it bubble again.

What is the point of a 40 thousand dollar increase in price if its going to fall back down again, there is absolutely no reason to trust the price increases if everyone keeps believing it is a bubble that is awaiting to be burst. We should see the price increases as something we deserve not lucky to have.

[jemarie20]

When (or if) will the next bubble Happen in your opinion and why?BTC

 I love to support bitcoin and I never get tired holding my bitcoin and wait the right time to use it when the price back on its normal place because I was hoping that bitcoin price will be back on its normal price in the near future.

[gentlemand]

I don't know when the next bubble will be but if we keep thinking about the price increases as "bubbles" than we are not going to be better off next time it happens.

But it will be another bubble.

The only time it may stop being a bubble is when a large enough number of people own it, understand it and actually use it. If a big enough proportion of people were using it as a savings vehicle and/or currency they would massively outweigh the speculators.

As it stands 95% or more of people involved are interested in it for its future prospects, not today's, and that makes them speculators.

[gabmen]

I don't know when the next bubble will be but if we keep thinking about the price increases as "bubbles" than we are not going to be better off next time it happens.

But it will be another bubble.

The only time it may stop being a bubble is when a large enough number of people own it, understand it and actually use it. If a big enough proportion of people were using it as a savings vehicle and/or currency they would massively outweigh the speculators.

As it stands 95% or more of people involved are interested in it for its future prospects, not today's, and that makes them speculators.

Right. At it's current state, btc will be a bubble that inflates and deflates repeatedly over time. I don't think people will be seeing it as something they can use consistently in transactions while the price goes up and down.

[Saisher]

To be honest one one knows about it, Yes there are lot of speculations as it may boom again. Those are planning to sell Just wait for few more months to see a better market. I went through few research and see there are chances of a bull run by next year. Let us wait for our turn.

I never had a big bull since investing in Bitcoin it's always been sliding I'm just an unlucky one but I keep reading experts opinion and data graph and there is still hope for next year if next year is not a good one, we will have nothing left for us but to sell whatever we had, that's my opinion in case.

[randythered]

When (or if) will the next bubble Happen in your opinion and why?BTC

Bubble beginning or bubble bursting? Bubble beginning would be sometime soon in theory, as soon as the price starts to grow again, so 2019. Bubble bursting I think won't be until 2021, perhaps pushing it 2022. Let's just hope there is another bubble sometime because it means the bear market has ended.

[South Park]

When (or if) will the next bubble Happen in your opinion and why?BTC

Most likely the next bubble will begin to form when the next halving happens but as we know from our previous experiences the price is not going go up immediately, it will take some months for the market to go up and there is going to be a slow build up until finally the pressure of the bulls becomes irresistible and the price begins to skyrocket again and we will reach a price close to 40k.

[arpon11]

When (or if) will the next bubble Happen in your opinion and why?BTC

My analysis is that bitcoin will bubble maybe in 2020 as next year is going to be a recovering face.  I don't expect serious bull run next year but bitcoin is going to be in a ranging trend.  It might be moving between $3000 and $6000 through out the year or a little above. I think now should be the best time to invest as the market has started showing some sign of recovery.  I believe that it will soon go over $4000

[truehedge]

2020 by statistic and the btc split 

Some time between the next halvening (May 2020) & the year 2020 because it’s what bitcoin does hostorically.


https://i.ibb.co/sybBJKH/FC52-B532-0-C65-4474-B233-75414-E207-B6-A.png

where is the image from? I mean the original source?

[thecodebear]

It will probably happen in 2021, a delayed effect from the halved supply in 2020 - and just the fact that it takes time for the FOMO to rise to a boiling point. Bull run should start next year, and slowly build to a fever pitch in 2021.

yes---if we follow the 2014 path. based on our very limited history that's the best guess, but chances are the market will form a different model than past cycles. they say history often rhymes but never repeats, and i think that applies to these cycles well.

Absolutely. Just a guess of course. I think Wall St could accelerate the bubble so that it comes in 2020 if they buy up millions of Bitcoin in 2019 so that when the next surge of retail traders comes in the supply is very thin and prices skyrocket. I think it depends how much Wall St buy up, because if institutional investors and traditional retail investors through like ETFs start thinking "hey let's put 10% of our portfolio in this Bitcoin thing", and if they all rush in to get cheap prices before the rest come in, that would start a serious bull run and then a public craze would quickly ensue again plus lots of news about the halving come 2020 and people start hearing about how the supply of new Bitcoin is cut in half yeah 2020 could be the next boom. Or we could see a 2013 type thing where Wall St rushes in and it shoots to say $40k but crashes before the general public can really get all frothy on it and then there's a short crash of less than a year before the general public finally rushes in and raises it much higher.

Just educated guesses. The only thing I'm very confident in is there will be another crypto boom within the next few years. The details of that boom, when, why, and how high, are of course educated guesswork.